The Kentucky Oaks Future Wager has failed to capture the public’s attention for a couple of reasons. The amount of information that is available is significantly less, but the main reason is the 13 horse field limits the number of horses who might reach the starting gate.
The Kentucky Oaks is also wagered on like a normal race. By normal last year Princess of Sylmar who came in with one loss was 37/1. The longest shot in the Derby in a 20 horse field was 35/1. Meanwhile favorites have been traditionally pounded and supported heavily in the Oaks. In the Derby favorites go off at 4/1, in the Oaks they are as low as 4/5.
The Oaks future wager has been wagered on in recent years with several heavy favorites being bet down to under 7/1 odds and that is no really that much value or interest that far out from the race. The exactas do allow an outlet to possibly receive a nice payout if you use a couple of shots that may go off lower on Oaks day.
Aragorn Ami is pointing for the Honeybee at Oaklawn Park, surprised some people with last win in a full field of horses. the PP’s look great and she seems capable of improving and pedigree has some stamina influences. Not the worst of shots and the price will be right.
Arethusa is simply a closer who has competed with the best of her generation and has the pedigree to be an Oaks horse. One run style is pace dependent but has steadily improved. Looks like Santa Anita Oaks and then Kentucky Oaks is the path. Low win % means high odds, not a bad play at 30/1. Darley Stable owned from the final crop of A.P. Indy.
Awesome Baby looks like a sprinter and not sure how hard or if they are trying for the Oaks. No races since January 4th and several works on tab in Feb. Pedigree says route, running style says sprint. Tough to back when they be pointing for sprints.
Bird Maker impressed with MSW win last fall. One prep this year and steady workouts. Runs in Allowance race on Thursday at Gulfstream. Nice pedigree, needs to step up in stakes race and get some points, but looks like they are pointing for the Oaks.
Cast In Silver is a G0lden Gate production similar to Shared Beleif. Trained by Jerry Hollendorfer. Won by 5 lengths and did not race until Feb. 16th. Odds better be long to support playing in futures.
Dame Dorothy has popular connections and a big comeback win. Been bet hard in both races and will take some money in the Oaks Future Wager. Nice horse but no price. People love betting the Bobby Flay horse and they like betting Bernadini’s.
Fashion Plate likely to be overbet based on last win over streaming when Gary Stevens practically carried her across the finish line. One dimensional horse needs the lead, last race was huge. Daughter of Old Fashioned will be hard pressed to go 9 furlongs with a strong pace and will have to ship to deeper surface to do it. Pedigree is speed both sides. Will be bet and is a horse to take a stand against.
Fiftyshadesofgold picked up a nice win at Sam Houston in 3 year old debut in early Feb. Texas Bred can run and owns two stakes wins. Built like a quarter horse, but big and strong and next race will be Fairgrounds Oaks and likely to be 3rd favorite behind Unbridled Belle and Tapiture. The waters are deep but whoever wins that race is likely to be favored come Oaks day.
Got Lucky rallied for second behind Tapiture and will probably surface in the Gazelle next start at 9 furlongs. Solid pedigree and stands a good chance of making the Oaks starting gate. Runs hard every times and fits with top horses in most races.
House Rules chased lone speed all the way around in the Davona Dale. Improving and will get another shot in the Gulfstream Oaks. Probably not top of class but fins in top 13 conversation. Career best effort in Davona Dale, not sure how much room for improvement.
Joint Return came from dead last in the Busanda to win a weak race and will run in the Gazelle. Nice pedigree but will need to pick up speed figures to have a shot with the big gals. three straight wins inspire confidence and running style is that of closer. Keeps on stepping up. Last year we saw a horse from Pennsylvania with the Lillies.
Onlyforyou is now 4/4 so will get plenty of support. Last two wins were almost too easy. Likely low odds, but a nice filly and may be better than people think. Pedigree says precocious, nice running style and does not need the lead. Has juvenile form and 3 YO form.
Our Amazing Rose won by 7 lengths but that was last July at Saratoga. recent workouts indicate they are ready to race soon. Speedy pedigree and only win at 5 furlongs. Interesting play if you want to bet totally on a speed angle.
Please Explain this horse impressed in the last race at Tampa Bay Downs. Back to back big wins means this horse is on the upswing. Tom Proctor is firing on all cylinders right now, any horse he sends out is well intended. Daughter of Curlin out of Pine Bluff has a mixture of Smart Strike and Danzig in the blood. Interesting.
Ria Antonia tired in season debut at the Fairgrounds. But Breeder’s Cup win was a fluke, she can improve off debut effort, but right now is not in top 7 of this crop and needs to step up to make Kentucky Oaks starting gate.
Rosalind is a nice closer who will get plenty of support at the windows because of that running style. Working often in Florida and should be ready for a race soon. Ultimately may like the turf, but a little behind on races this year and 5 races last year. Running style is to close from behind and seems to like distance races. Needs to pick up the speed a little to be more competitive on the turn, or a strong pace.
Shanon Nicole finished 3rd in most recent race but was far back and I would be surprised if she made the Oaks starting gate. has plenty of races, most of them on the turf. Highly improbable.
She’s a Tiger has one published work, has a one dimensional running style and is a half sister to a famous sprinter in Smiling Tiger. Possibly pointing for Santa Anita Oaks, but needs to get busier on the work tab soon and not sure she wants 9 furlongs. With Gary Stevens in the Saddle will take a lot of money. No value unless over 25/1.
Stopchargingmaria disappointed in debut race and will probably go to Gazelle. Did not run a step and the trainer had the race favorite. Something smells about Saturdays race and I expect a big effort in the Gazelle and likely to be in the Oaks starting gate. Too talented last year to completely disappear. The Todd Squad has made a history of fillies firing big races 2nd off the layoff.
Sweet Reason has a along string of works and is pointing for the Gazelle, nice work tab and I expect a strong effort in the Gazelle. Morning line is reasonable and has the class and running style to be effective in the Oaks.
Sweet Whiskey been freshened since OldHat Score. Pedigree says sprinter on both sides and has run 4 lifetime races all in sprints. Todd Pletcher trained, has too many other contenders at the current time to focus on this one to stretch out. Highly doubtful they are pointing for Oaks.
Unbridled Forever has a great deal of ability recording a monster maiden win last fall and excellent debut win in January. Skipped the Rachel Alexandra and will point for the Fairground Oaks and a matchup with Divine Beauty and Untapable. Will be bet hard on Oaks Day and has a huge fan club. Will be bet down in the futures as well and doesn’t offer any value unless you can find a few exactas. I expect her to be possibly the 2nd favorite in the Oaks Future Wagering behind Untapable.
Untapable has the perfect timing. Was 4/1 last Saturday in the Rachel Alexandra. Dominates the race by 10 lengths and is now the Oaks favorite. Nothing wrong with last weeks race and will be favored in Fairgrounds Oaks and one of top 3 choices in Kentucky Oaks. But 7/1 is way too low a price. Nothing to fault from a handicapping perspective and is capable of winning the race. Good horse, low price and not a lot of value, would need 9/1 to consider.
Field never wins the Oaks pool which is because they list 23 horses and only 13 horses start the race. So no value in placing a bet on a losing ticket.