The 140th Kentucky Derby was a visual confirmation of the domination that is California Chrome in 2014.
On paper the Derby was a race that figured to be dominated by California Chrome. CC came in with the best form (4 straight wins), dominating speed figures in past two races, and visually dominating wins – 4 lengths and 8 lengths in the last two races. Bet heavily in the win pools and even harder in the Oaks/Derby Doubles. Chrome was the overwhelming favorite as they headed to the starting gate. The only questions on the resume for California Chrome was two things: 1) He had never shipped outside California and 2) A couple of quirky gate starts in past few races. But Chrome’s resume withstood better scrutiny in Kentucky than George O’Leary’s did at Notre Dame.
The Start: Overall the start was good a clear break for everyone, it allowed most horses to establish position within the first few feet. Ride on Curlin made a bee-line to the rail and Candy Boy had to take up sharply a quarter-mile into the race. Uncle Sigh broke clean from his post and California Chrome got a clean break from the gate.
The Pace was set by Uncle Sigh, wearing the Purple and Gold Warrior Mask and a fancy new set of blinkers, Uncle set a solid pace for the quarter-mile and moderate pace for the half mile. Samraat and California Chrome were allowed to settle into place and Intense Holiday for some reason elected to run 4 wide for the first half mile, pressing a solid pace while running 4-wide into the teeth of the top contenders doomed him at this point.
Victor Espinoza once he established his position on the race-track made the call to set-up shop outside Uncle Sigh, once he did this, California Chrome relaxed and did what the Chrome does – Gallop with the pace, and get involved enough early while the field got spread out. The 6 furlongs clipped along while slowing down slightly at the 6 furlong mark, Chrome’s natural speed moved him into position and he took the lead on cue going into the turn, with a natural turn of foot, fast, efficient strides gave him the lead, at this point, no one was able to run with him.
Chrome opened up 3 lengths in a matter of strides and at this point the race is over. This is the 3rd straight race with the same trip. He has the speed to make his own trip, the class to spread out the field and his rhythmic, short, purposeful strides allow him to race at a solid pace while not wasting any valuable energy.
The rest of the race behind the front-runners was a drawn out procession of bumps, changing lanes, and mainly trying to maintain position. Danza benefitted from a rail-saving trip again. Wicked Strong was wide the entire first half mile. Medal Count cound’t keep up with the field early, made a mid-race move and then was clobbered by Danza who took a left-turn just after the turn into the stretch. Despite all the trouble from behind, while the order of the also-rans might have reversed if Danza and Wicked strong would have gotten better trips. The rest of this field was not good enough to take on California Chrome.
Samraat was game while running wide and with the pace and held on well down the stretch. This hard-tryer fits well at this level, but again was not good enough for a top 3 finish with this type of group with a moderate to fast pace.
Meanwhile back to the winner – California Chrome was the top ranked 3-year old coming into the Derby and exits with a 5 race win streak and a large lead in the 3-year old championship.
California Chrome has defeated all challengers in five straight races and has done so, with front-running scores and races from just off the pace. He has been the best horse in five straight races.
The Kentucky Derby to me is a survival race, the speed figure is irrelevant, he was the fastest horse and his speed allowed him to get the best trip. I can’t make a case for any other horse in the race to defeat him with any kind of reasonable pace scenario.
Commanding Curve proves that in the Kentucky Derby any horse can finish In The Money – just like Golden Soul, Green Aligator and Steppenwolfer before him. The nature of the pace and the distance of the race make for unique dynamics in the exacta and trifecta. While talented – until Commanding Curve picks up a 2nd lifetime win it’s hard to take his 2nd place finish at face value.
Danza had a ground saving trip again, he did interfere with horses coming into the stretch, but agree with the decision not to have a stewards inquiry into 3rd and 4th place finishers with 160,000 people in the crowd and many millions watching on TV.
This Derby was run on a fast track, with ideal weather conditions with a good clean start for most of the horses, no significant traffic problems for the top 3 finishers and a reasonable to moderate pace. With this group of horses California Chrome was the best horse in this race and won in dominating fashion. I was the Dumb Ass for not picking Chrome in the race.