This is part one of a two-part preview of the 2014 Kentucky Derby. Hopefully a few notes below give you pause to think about every horse and their potential in Kentucky. Make your own opinion and mix in advice from below and around the Blogosphere. Handicapping is best enjoyed when looking for information, sorting through all the madness and making some final picks. Have fun. Cash some tickets! Below are the 12 contenders that did not make the cut for a potential win. Keep in mind. Winning the Derby and running 2nd are completely different. Last year Golden Soul had no chance to win the race but plodded up for 2nd late in the slop. So a few of these horses could be in the Superfecta, they are not on my list of potential winners.
Uncle Sigh: This guy broke slow in the Wood Memorial but ran a credible race as he was loafing down the backstretch and was out of the running and then slowly ran his way into 5th place into the stretch and was still running at the end. Distance could be an issue. Like the fact that he has speed and should be able to position himself with a good trip. In this race he will have to come from 9th or 10th place. This guy is consistent but lacks a “brilliant” turn of speed. In recent year’s several Derby winners have changed running style and shuffled to the rear of the field before making a move. New York Bred has been in training all winter and may like the switch to a new surface. Bottom Line: Needs to run a career best to win.
Ring Weekend has had a quick rise to fame and now seems to be going back down. His Tampa Bay Derby win looked good at the time. Since that win Ring Weekend and every other horse from that race have come back to lose multiple times. He was gelded last fall and first three races this year were solid on a form cycle. His Calder Derby was bad from the start. The strategy was to lay back, but he was rank and fought the whole way and never went into the bit. Then was bumped into the stretch. Seemed gased going into the turn of that race. The final time was very slow and the winner of the Calder Derby had lost his previous two races by 29 lengths. Bottom Line: Seems to be regressing.
Dance With Fate earned his stripes to the Derby with a big win in the Bluegrass Stakes. His stride and stretch run is completely different on Synthetic than on dirt. He shipped back to California after the Bluegrass and will ship back late for the Kentucky Derby. This is a good horse and fits class wise. Hard to imagine a two-step salsa winning at 10 furlongs on dirt. Bargain Buy has outrun his purchase price. Really wanted to keep him in Elite 8. Nice horse but this ambitious schedule can knock out the best of horses. Bottom Line: Too many question marks.
We Miss Artie this guy is the one man party. A head bob away from not being in the derby field. Probably has the least imposing credentials on dirt than most contenders. His artificial surface form has been outstanding. His Breeders Cup Juvenile was a good race but did fade late. Not sold on him as a 10 furlong distance horse. Running style fits the race and should make a move from 8-10 lengths off the pace and seems to have some grit and doesn’t mind running inside horses and getting some dirt in his pace. Bottom Line: Lacks burst of speed on dirt.
Vinceramos this guy in basketball terms is a “tweener” he’s not fast enough to run them off their feet, he doesn’t outclass them. His best races have been off the pace. Seems to have the right running style and pedigree says distance may not be an issue. Could like an off track. May still be developing and ultimately turf may be his game. Prefer others but this guy will make some money. Bottom Line: Speed Figures says he’s not in top 12.
Harry’s Holiday has over-achieved since being claimed (purchased) in maiden claiming race. Came up with 3 solid efforts on the synthetic surface and then regressed when stepped up in class in full field of Bluegrass Stakes. Strong effort in the Spiral Stakes may have been too much to overcome. Bottom Line: Grade 1 race with 20 horses just too much too handle at this point of his career.
Danza is a tough horse to classify. Many signs show he is improving and could continue on the uptick. His Arkansas Derby win was fast, but he had the perfect trip and a couple of horses did not show up in that race. On the other side maybe did not like Florida and woke up in the last race. Pedigree limitations could come into play as he should like the synthetic. Has more of a sprinters build and runs more like a sprinter and has a muscled rear-end. Bottom Line: Surprised in last race at 40/1. Tough to bet at 15/1.
Intense Holiday this guy was close to making the cut. Has run against the best of his class and many of those horses have been sidelined. His Risen Star was a victory in the final stride. Like the fact he ran well as a 2 – year old and then came back with some nice races early this year. Has not missed a beat in the last few months. Races have been spotted well. His best race was a drop back and make one run move. In the Louisiana Derby he was closer to a soft pace and then lost his action coming into the stretch and hit the rail. Should like the distance. New jockey rides for Derby. Bottom Line – right running style and seems fit with plenty of foundation, should pick up a portion of the purse.
Wildcat Red the Rodney Dangerfield of the field. No “Respect” – blossomed this winter in Florida and engaged in a serious of memorable races at Gulfstream Park. His nemesis General A Rod has alternated decisions and even cut back in the swale for a big victory. Has earned a lot of money. Has already outrun his pedigree at this point and running style is close to the pace and he may actually set the pace if everyone else grabs and holds back. This guy is game and he may be the key to the race. If he sets an honest pace, it sets up for a closer. If he is allowed an easy lead he may allow the horses to “bunch” up and trip and trouble could play a role in who wins the Derby. Bottom Line: Game, Fit and Fresh Expect a good race. But distance may be too much to win.
Ride on Curlin the Pride of Ellis Park comes back in the circle of life to where it all began. Likeable connections with trainer Bronco Billy and this son of Curlin should have plenty of fans of the Jockey Calvin Borel who seems to rise to the occasion on Derby day in the last decade. Came from off the pace in the last race and has run well in the Champagne from behind. Can run inside horses and circle from the outside. Versatile runner hits hard and price will probably still be solid. Bottom Line: Fan favorite has been picking up checks everywhere. The road show continues.
Chitu this guy was in the derby and then out of the derby and then back in. He looks like a sprinter, has the pedigree of a sprinter but has developed into a gritty 8-8.5 furlong type in the last couple of races. Picked up all the money at Sunland in the last race. Knocked heads with Candy Boy at Santa Anita 2-back. Speed Figures are competitive and is another that is pace dependent. He will be in the top 4 horses and will ensure a contested pace. His presence makes it tough for Wildcat Red and others. Bottom Line: A Henny Hughes winning at 10 furlongs is too much for my mind to comprehend.
Medal Count this horse went from Totally Geek to Totally Sheik in 7 days. He was entered in a turf race at Keeneland that was rained off. Won the Transylvania Stakes and then came back with a rallying wide run in the Blue Grass Stakes. Has tried dirt and won at Ellis Park. His last effort at Gulfstream he may not have liked the track. May be getting good at the right time. Pedigree is built for distance and has the look of a long distance, free striding horse. Bottom Line: Tough to bet on, but also tough to toss, expect him to pass some tired horses in the stretch.
Look for Part Two and the Elite Eight to be up Next Thursday: