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The top contenders for the 2015 Kentucky Derby, come in fast, fresh and fit.  This consistent group brings some class to the table.

The Skinny:

American Pharoah has trained solid since a February return. Won the G1 Delmar Futurity as a maiden showing speed. Was able to use soft fractions in Front Runner stakes picked up a 2^nd stakes win. Has fast workouts. Rebel Stakes was a sloppy win with slow fractions as a clear 3/5 favorite. He has speed. I don’t think he can rate. This horse is game and fast his speed will determine who wins the race. If he gets into a pissing match with Dortund on the Engine it may set up for a closer. Very likely winner but a slight chance he gets hooked by multiple horses.

Dortmund Undefeated, Battle Tested and comes off back to back visually impressive wins. Dominated the Santa Anita Derby with long loping strides while in hand and drew away from the field. Big, Fast and intimidating. Has a win over Churchill Downs. Raced 3 times as a 2-year-old for foundation. Long stamina building workouts for over 2 months. Not sure he is peaking and is another who likes to be on the lead. Big and imposing – small chance he just loves the 10 furlongs and blows this field away.  This long-term this will be the best horse of this crop.

Carpe Diem has been near the top of this class since his maiden win at Saratoga at 5.5 furlongs. Dominated twice at Keeneland. Big wins this spring at Tampa Bay and his last race at Keeneland, sat the perfect trip and won with authority. Speed figures are tough to handle, might be more in the tank.  This horse can rate.  Raced from behind in the Breeders Cup and settled in 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby. Like the post position and think he can settle in 5th or 6th early.  The upsetter chance if American Pharoah doesn’t bring his top race for some reason.

Upstart has never run a bad race and last 2 races in Florida over deep, tiring surface may have toughened him up. Can come off the pace, make a mid race move, or race near the pace. May want to cover up and make one run for best performance. Can run with the big boys.  May be overlooked has the class and grit to make a move on the turn.  Contender.

Firing Line has grit and speed, been learning to ration that speed in last 2 races. He was aggressively spotted into G1 out of maiden win and battled hard-core veterans in Dortmund and Mr. Z in that race. Moved too soon against Dortmund in Robert Lewis Stakes. Sunland Stakes was a dominating performance. Look to sit 3-4 lengths off the pace and make a bold run at the lead. If the pace is slow, capable of running near the pace. I expect a big move and how well he hooks some of the speed may determine the winner of the race.  Can’t be left out.

Frosted went from totally geek to totally Sheik in one race. Had throat surgery following FOY flop and responded with wide, long sustained run coming from off the pace In the Wood. Galloped out a 7 furlong workout chasing a stable-mate and is another who has enough speed to hang within top 10 of the race. His new running style is to come from behind.  Will be picking off horses late.  Rosario rides and may just give him the ride of his life.

Danzig Moon picked up 2^nd place with a wide rally in the Bluegrass. The Keeneland surface favored wide closers that day and had a weak Tampa Bay Derby. Has talent but way too much too soon and just not seasoned enough or have the true distance pedigree to hang with clearly superior horses.

Materiality has been rushed. Two demanding grueling 9 furlong races in has 2 starts and now runs 10 furlongs with 126 pounds with only 3 races in his lifetime. Running style has been speed. Lots of speed in this race. Most likely to show speed and crash and burn. If he flops it will be ugly and likely to finish 12^th place or worse. Wouldn’t be surprised if he is used to sharpen up the pace a little.  Expect to see him on or near the lead and making the pace very contentious. Overall seems likely to regress than improve.

International Star has dominated the Bayou with 3 straight wins at the Fairgrounds. This guy gas grit and has worked out good trips from bad post positions. Like the way he accelerates down the stretch and loves to pass horses. If a pace meltdown happens he will keep running. Solid horse and seems to be fit and is used to a long stretch and can run inside and in full fields. Lots to like.

Win Contenders:

American Pharoah

Carpe Diem

Upstart

Must Use in Exotic Wagers

Firing Line

Frosted

The Selection:

American Pharoah has the speed, recent form, sharp workouts and class to be a dominant factor in this Derby.  I do think he likes the lead, but at this point he may just be faster and coming into this race better than everybody else.  American Pharoah is a play at 5/2 odds or higher. Carpe Diem has a solid Juvenile Foundation, he has been in the top 3 of his class since his debut win.  He can rate, he has been finishing strong in his works.  Pedigree is top-notch and has a body built for 10 furlongs.  Been finishing strong in workouts.  Keeneland Futurity win was huge race last fall.  Should sit mid-pack and start picking up horses going into the turn.

American Pharoah #1

Carpe Diem #2

Upstart #3

Frosted #4

Firing Line #5