Overview: The days are getting longer, and the pace heats up on the Road to Kentucky. The Southwest Stakes is the second prep in the Oaklawn Park series. The Smarty Jones winner – Victory Formation, is passing on the Southwest Stakes.
Entered in the Future Book favorite for the Kentucky Derby in Arabian Knight, Brad Cox sends out two minor stakes winners in Corona Bolt and Jace’s Road. Ken McPeek joins the fun with Sun Thunder and sprint stakes winner Departure.
The Southwest has some quality for a late January sophomore stakes engagement.
Southwest Analysis:
Arabian Knight debuted on Breeder’s Cup Saturday with an explosive victory. The Beyer speed figure was a 97, and he drew off by over seven widening lengths. Arabian Knight did show a small paddle down the stretch. He has the fastest speed figure in the race but comes off the layoff. The workouts on XBTV have been a mixture of speed and stamina to get him fit. He will be a short price, most likely 4/5.
Corona Bolt has two starts and two wins for trainer Brad Cox and goes two turns for the first time in this spot. In his debut, he came from slightly off the pace and made his move going into the turn. Short works and a race in December should have him fit for this one-mile and one-sixteenth race. Formidable opponent. 6/1 on the morning line, and I expect around 4/1 on race day.
Jace’s Road was a dominating winner of the Gun Runner Stakes. He broke cleanly and controlled the pace in that spot when the other speed in the race broke a step slow. He debuted with a quick win at Ellis Park. His best chance to win is to go wire to wire, but he does face other speeds in this race. The shorter Oaklawn stretch should benefit him after winning at the Fair Grounds in his most recent start. The price will be solid on a current stakes winner.
Sun Thunder is the closer in the race after coming from off the pace to break his maiden last out. He is a winner over the track and should benefit from the added distance. His speed figure is slower than Corona Bolt and Arabian Knight, but he will be motoring late from off the pace. Deep closer with slower speed figures is 10/1.
Hit Show is another who benefits from a win over the track in an allowance race. He is one of three trained by Brad Cox. Expect him to come from off the pace in this spot. Use him in bottom half of exactas.
Betting: Arabian Knight will be the big favorite based on Bob Baffert’s record at Oaklawn Park and the 97 Beyer speed figure. Corona Bolt has the most upside in this spot. My selection is Sun Thunder, who figures to be 8/1 and will be rolling late. His best chance to win is a speed duel with multiple horses on the front end.