For those of you new to the show. I have been watching Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks since the late 80’s and have never missed a Breeder’s Cup race. Below are my notes the good the bad and the ugly from last September through the Ugly Derby Trial we just witnessed last week. Below are my options, if say there was a speed bias that’s my opinion there may or may not have been a speed bias. If I say a horse is bred to go the distance that is what I believe based on experience, pedigree, running style and racing ability of siblings. If you want insider information move along, if you want fair and balance reporting see ya! Warning! Put on your Big Boy pants before reading.
Black Onyx: Bottom Line is that horse has improved since the trainer switch to Kelly Breen. Prepped on the turf and then went to the poly and made a huge mid race move while running wide, took command and while not finishing strong, finished with interest in the Spiral. Has a win on the dirt on an off track at Aqueduct. Has a turf stride and overall a turf pedigree but does has some distance influences. Distance is not the question. Speed is. Improving sort not the worst of shots. Has tactical speed and could possibly close in the derby. Small chance of winning, slightly better of running 3rd or 4th.
Oxbow: Back when I started becoming a horse race fan. Charlie Whittingham was cool and Wayne Lukas as the slick kid and ruining the sport of horse racing. Circle of life, now I’m rooting for the old codger wayne and making fun of Todd Pletcher for being too slick and having all the money and horses. Is this a great game or what? Oxbow ran a winning race in the Cash Call Futurity. Marooned with an outside post after shipping from Churchill Downs, raced wide out of the gate, down the backstretch made multiple moves towards the leaders while remaining wide. In the Le Comte put it all together and made a winning move at the top of the stretch and won by 11 lenghts. Impressive effort and an effort like this on Saturday is capable of winning the Derby. Main concern is that this time of the year not many excuses are allowed and the Arkansas Derby was not a good race for Oxbow, facing the worst field he ran to his competition while showing no speed, usually when a horse who consistently shows speed suddenly doesn’t it’s hard to stop the slide without a break. Has trained with Energy, best race will be if he races in top flight of horses, he is not tactical enough to come from way back. Does have “slop/off track” breeding if that comes into play.
Revolutionary: Borel, Winstar and Derby Day, it’s Super Saver version 2.0. This version is the new and improved version. Bigger, Faster, Stronger than Super Saver. Has broken slow or had trouble at the gate in every race of his career, his best break was in his last race but he still broke slow. Has displayed a will to win and his dominating maiden win on December 28th over Transparent was a nice win when Transparent came backt o dominate a maiden race. Company Lines are good. Faced Little Distorted when that horse ran huge and then faced Orb in his first race going two turns. Has trained really well the past two weeks. Two Preps in 2013 and solid distance pedigree influence on the female side.
Golden Soul: This horse has been playing catchup. Stone Cold Closer who has been trained to close and finish in all of his races. Is about 6 lengths slower than most of these horses at 8.5 and 9 furlongs but might actually be one of the few horses who love the 10 furlong distance. Pedigree is solid and has improved in every race, has some ability and even though he was never really in the hunt with derby “points” he trained and worked out all along as if he was getting to the derby so he has been pointed to this race for over a month.
Normandy Invasion. Still eligible for NW1 allowance. Huge performance in maiden breaker last fall. His effort in the Remsen was solid on paper and visually better on the replay, made huge move on the back side while going to the rail and then angling out to the center of the track for the stretch run, took the lead and then lost the head bob while galloping out well. Pedigree is a tough read. Tapit has yet to sire a sound classic dirt runner at middle distances besides a couple of fillies. On the mare side you have a dam (mother) who was not very talented and Boston Harbor is usually a speed influence in pedigrees. Recent works have been strong. Strong recent gallops and shiny coat. Two Prep campaign has been planed all along. Last fall after Remsen they said he would have two starts before the Derby and that his second start would be the Wood. Stuck to the plan and looks very competitive.
Mylute: Mixed signals. Pedigree says Sprint with the Valid Expectations influence. Has made huge moves in a couple of races and flattened out late, now going a longer distance and will be underlaid on the win odds with Rosie in the saddle. Fairgrounds victory on December 26th by 10 lengths was a solid win. Runner-up effort in Swamp Derby was a winning effort while running wide. Has an experience edge with 9 lifetime races and has faced solid horses in every start. Only two races in 2013 so Derby will be 3rd start of year.
Giant Finish: A late entrant. The Derby is won by horses who have been trained to run in the Derby this horse was not even pointed until the weekend. Golden Soul was trained to get in the Derby all along. Should realistically be 90/1 on the board it will be interesting to see what he goes off at. Longshot, not much to like but belongs in the fileld. I’m a fan of 20 horse fields.
Goldencents: Good post and the speed of the speed. Best races are on the engine and on the lead. Has not missed a beat since January 1 working like clockwork every 6 to 8 days with three races. Muscular colt has worked well recently. Santa Anita Derby was strong effort but had the element of surprise when faded to 4th in San Felipe. Snuck away on the turn when no one thought he could get the distance. His best chance to win is to take the lead or settle in 2nd not too far off the pace. If he runs his best race that is capable of winning. Also had a monster “slop” workout in February. Skipped over the slop. Probably would not like Muddy Track but speed in the slop is always dangerous and is fast, fit and fresh.
Overanalyze: Every other race is a good race. His two best races visually have not generated high speed figures. The Futurity he broke a step slow was in last place early and rallied to win by 3 lengths going away. In the Arkansas Derby he was in 7th place early made a 4 wide move and won going away by 4 lengths. A dominating win is always a positive. He may not have much room for improvement. His best chance is to lay in 12th to 14th place early well off the pace and make one sustained run, if he begins his run too soon he may flatted out. Only two starts with Rafael Bejarano he does have a few things going in his corner. The negatives are that he is slower than some of the main contenders and being versatile in a shorter race may not translate to 10 furlongs. I think this horse will make a top notch miler when all said and done.
Palace Malice: A good horse but maybe that is all he is. Being out of the first crop of Curlin big things have been expected for this horse in all 6 lifetime races and each race he has been bet below 6/1, while being below even money in two of those races. Had a horrendous trip in the Louisiana Derby. Improved slightly on the poly but was run down by Java’s War and Charming Kitten late. Has one lifetime win and that was at Saratoga in August. Time is running out on the excuses.
Lines of Battle: Until a Dubai horse comes over two weeks early and actually trains in america they are not getting my money. They shipped in late, they lose weight on the flight over, they are stuck in quarantine for 48 hours and the emerge and have to race. Betting on this horse is just guessing. His six furlong split in Dubai on Poly was 1:18 so it looks like he has speed but in reality he will be near the back of the pack early.
Itsmyluckyday: Ran very fast with back to back efforts in January. Rested 60 days and came up short to Orb in Florida Derby has the chance to turn the tables on Orb. Lawyer Ron son has tactical speed and should like the track if it comes up sloppy with the Danzig Influence. Long works over Calder. Arrived to Churchill late. Could finish in top 3 or finish 10th. Delta Jackpot race was flat last fall against Goldencents. Tough read on solid horse who has earned a bunch of cash.
Falling Sky: Shrewd purchase at the winter sale has blossomed after stretching out. Has solid bottom conditioning wise and is a gritty horse. Tough to find any scenarios with him actually winning. Doesn’t want to wing it early, might note be able to take the mid race heat and the closers are all bred to run longer. Son of Lion Heart may be distance challenged. Gritty horse and adds pace pressure to the party.
Verrazano: Undefeated and in reality untested. Precocious fast horses. Did not start at two. Derby will be 5th race in 2013. Has made multiple moves in each of last two races. Very few horses have multiple gears and can use them on command. Big win at Tampa was better than it looked. Should be in shape, has not missed any works and has a shiny coat. Big rear end, strong built horse. Built like a router does have a shorter stride than most top routers and doesn’t reach out like you want. Has been winning races with raw speed. One of the few horses in this crop who has the potential to be a Champion. His Tampa Bay Derby win was strong dueled with Falling Sky for 25 seconds and made two moves to put him away. Likes to run, in all his races has his ears forward and in workouts in the past few weeks seems aware of his surroundings. Push button speed and is learning to route. Has speed and breaks cleanly from the gate in all his races. May surprise and go to lead if no one wants it and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him laying 6th or 7th early and try to make a rush to the lead going into the turn.
Charming Kitten: More Kittens to the Party. Kittens like poly, has the class level on turf and is natural distance horse. Has grinding speed but no real ultra burst or gear that can put him into positon to win. 4th or 5th at best but should close at the end
Orb: Orb has won 4 in a row since losing his first three starts. Slow Allowance win in January was followed by two improved efforts in January and February. Probably Favorite has done nothing wrong and has good speed to lay close to the pace and can come from behind. Should like the slop and seems to have a shiny coat and enjoying the cool weather. It is possible he improves a couple of lengths as he is bred to be a late developer and possible stayer. Put together a quick move in the Fountain of Youth that was surprising at the time. Seems to be a long winded horse and if he is able to get a clear trip looms a dangerous threat down the stretch. Lots to like and has won 4 in a row. My one note is that did wash out a couple of times in the hot weather in Florida, with cool weather could improve but also was very agitated in a couple of races in the paddock, worth watching with the large crowd and large field.
Wil Take Charge: Good breeding has tossed some good races with some average races. Rebel was a solid effort and best race to date. Growth spurt and has really developed some long legs and carries a lot of weight. Has a choppy stride and puts a lot of pressure on his front. Inefficient mover needs to improve a few lengths but could possibly do that. Has one bad slop effort and with large frame and weight will probably not be a good mud horse.
Frac Daddy: Qualified for the Derby by running 2nd in the slowest Derby Prep. Best career race was over the Churchill Downs surface. In shape and has been galloping long open gallops in the morning. Not for me.
Java’s War: Small Horse, possibly the smallest, lightest horse in the field. 2nd place finish to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby was the result of a long sustained move down the backstretch and finished full of run but no match for Verrazano that day. Bluegrass broke slow and passed the field down the stretch. No mystery here people. Will lay 17th place early and make a move and hope he can get to contention by the top of the stretch and start passing horses in the lane. Should like the slop but overall has a turf stride.
Vyjack: Has run against solid horses in every race. Maiden win was a fast win and followed that up with a gutsy stakes win at 7 furlongs. Has run 5 races all without getting a break from November through April. Seems to be a nice horse, but 20th post position did him no favors in this race. Look for Garrett Gomez to lay back and try to make a run, but pedigree says 10 furlongs may be too far to hold his speed, does have some slop breeding influence in multiple generations and seems to be relishing his role as a closer. Few horses can make the transition from speed horse to closer and Vyjack has proven to be game, fast and consistent in his five race career. Small chance to win, but not out of it for some of the exotics.