This year the Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 3, comes in an “off” week with the San Felipe and Tampa Bay Derby a week away. Daredevil and The Great War are the only 2 horses listed in action this weekend.
My notes are based on 3 factors. The potential of making the race which accounts for current Kentucky Derby points and recent workouts. Potential value in projecting odds on May 2nd that may not be correctly reflected in current pool and finally the actual potential of winning the race on May 2. Overall my strategy is to play a few exactas with some of the obvious contenders and key them first and 2nd.
Contenders:
Carpe Diem is being bet on potential. He has offered no value in future wagering closing at under 12/1 odds in pool 2 and getting plenty of play in pool 1. He has the class, great 2-year-old foundation and the pedigree. Needs to fire a good race to make the field. Chances of making the derby are good. Waiting until pool 4 may be the play.
Dortmund is undefeated and has been battle tested and continues to work well for his next race. Probably under 10/1 odds and win or lose will be 7/1 in Pool 4. In future wagers Time is more important than price. Wait until pool 4.
Far From Over has the pedigree and running style versatility should ensure good tactical position in any race. Should float to 20/1 and classy pedigree should fit the 10 furlongs. Has shown speed and resiliency in both his races. Galloped out well in last race. Recent work is good sign and Gotham Stakes next engagement.
Firing Line needs a win with 3 2nd place finishes in 4 starts. Been training well and best running style will be to fall back and make 1 big run. Sunland should be the cure for the win. Pedigree does not scream 10 furlongs but some class in the female family to make up for that. 30/1
International Star has to be in the contenders column based on his 4 for 8 record. Has been battle tested. Ships well and runs on any surface. He has a race over Churchill Downs and loves to run with the pack of horses. Bargain buy for 85K has earned his keep and he finishes his races strongly. Still a little under the radar and not being respected by a lot of “speed” handicappers. 35/1
Itsaknockout is a horse who may be succeeding despite a late developing pedigree. Lemon Drop Kid is one of the few “distance’ sires and not sure Gulfstream is the ideal track for him. Only 3 lifetime races and will run in the Florida Derby. This is another horse like Firing Line who ultimately will drop back to 10th place in the Derby and then make a move. Enough points to make the race and expecting a move forward off demanding Fountain of Youth race. 30/1
Prospect Park has a pedigree that should love the slop. The five lifetime races have him in peak physical condition and seems to be getting good at the right time. Last 2 workouts have been in control and seems to be developing a stride that will crank out 12 2/5 furlongs down the backstretch. Has run inside and outside of horses and really learned to rate in the last race. Price will be right but the weeds get tall in the San Felipe. 25/1
Upstart has a dominating record with 3 wins in 5 races and a DQ that would have been win #4. The Gulfstream surface should have toughened him up and shipping to New York for cooler weather and different surface should help for shipping to Churchill Downs. Has enough points to make the race. Has finished strongly in all his races and tactical speed to get position. Training schedule has been on point this year and 5 weeks to re-group for Wood. 15/1. The 4th and final pool will be the week of last week in March with Upstart scheduled to run April 4th – his price in Pool 4 may offer better value than pool 3.
Pretenders:
American Pharoah offers no value in pool 3 future wagering. The Rebel Stakes on March 14th will be his first race in 2015. Depending on how he does in that race his odds in Pool 4 will basically be the same as pool 3. Pedigree says 10 furlongs will be stretching the limits. He has not run in a long time, other horses have cut into his dominance.
Bolo will be trying dirt for the first time in the San Felipe, that field will be coming up tough. Distance should not be an issue, but he has no points and his dirt may be a one shot and done. Demand 50/1. Has talent and recent work tab is solid.
Daredevil is a tough read with the Swale giving a clue about his overall talent this weekend. Not really sure he is on the trail. Watch the Swale stakes and bet accordingly.
El Kabeir is likely to make the starting gate and seems battle toughened from his Aqueduct races. Distance limitations will keep him off my tickets.
Far Right has a great chance of making the starting gate. Running style is a negative, not sure if he truly wants 9 or 10 furlongs. Has a “deep” closer running style and has been making timed runs and getting rail trip in last 2 races. Pedigree is suspect for 10 furlongs. Arkansas Derby is final prep. Fair Odds is 35/1.
Keen Ice is one inch a way from still being a maiden his improbably finish in a Maiden Special Weight race has “earned” him stakes credentials. He does not have tactical speed, and has received inside trips and gotten outrun going into the turn in every race. He has long odds to win the race, he is the ultimate plodder 2/3/4th place type of horse but can’t see him winning.
Khozan – the Curse of Apollo. Did not race as a 2-year-old. His allowance win was against suspect competition. Florida Derby will be 3rd lifetime start and first “real” battle. Price will be low and horses that are pushed hard usually start to show the effects around May. Low Price and not battle tested.
Texas Red serves no purpose in the Futures Pool. He will be at the farm until March 7. His odds will be low based on reputation. His overall form is suspect. No value, pedigree is questionable for the distance and female family is light.
War Story has put together 3 strong races but seems to be reaching distance limitations. Fits class wise in the Louisiana Derby, needs to make a jump and speed figures have been stagnant the last couple of races.
On the Fence:
Lord Nelson is better than a lot of people give him credit for. Seems to be developing at the right time and still has room for improvement. Pedigree says 9 furlongs should be solid for him. Long odds, pedigree and improvement may put him in the mix for a few tickets.
Mr. Z is a tricky read. Record of 1 win in 10 starts is unusual and he truly is 3 head bobs away from reversing that record. Has danced all the dances and fits at any class level. Blinkers go off in the Fairgrounds. The public handicappers have backed away and his price will float to 35/1. Good chance to be in the race. Consistent record and the type of horse who will be under 12/1 come derby day.
Ocean Knight has flashed potential in both his career starts. His maiden win he dazzled with a quick burst of speed going into the turn and cantered in. At Tampa Bay he ran wide and showed tactical speed to lay close and finish with authority. Down side is Stormy Atlantic on the female side is more of a turf influence. Only 2 career races and will have to step it up and ship in the Gotham Stakes. Price will be lower than his realistic chance of making the race at this point.
Ocho Ocho Ocho is a horse who visually gives the impression that he is all class. Has shown speed, turn of foot, class in his 3 races. Has some class in his female family. Overall has the look of a sprinter. His workouts have been lights out and has a 2 race prep campaign. Visually lots to like about this guy and think he is gutsy, just not sold on his ability to go 10 furlongs with the best of his generation. On the other hand his tactical speed and juvenile form, puts him in the top 7 or 8 horses as they turn for home and that’s not a bad bet. 35/1
Danzig Moon is an interesting play. 3-year-old comeback race was visually impressive and has the 2-year-old form to back it up. Working well and Tampa Bay Derby and Bluegrass are the logical targets. The odds will be right and has current form, recent win takes out the guess-work. 45/1
The Great War bled in his Europe races so lasix is the answer to his recent success. Breeders Cup Juvenile effort was one of the top 3 performances from that race. Was close to the speed, while inside horses. Pressed fast fractions and battled all the way to the end. His Turfway victory just dominated the field. If he runs away with the Battaglia he may be worth putting on a few tickets. One to watch this weekend. 40/1