In past year’s the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Three now (Four) offered some value on individual interests who have traditionally went off at higher odds in the KDFW than they did on Derby day.
Last year for example Verrazano was 7/2 in Pool 3 and went off on 8/1 on Derby day. Orb went off at 4/1 on Derby day with odds of 10/1 in the final pool. The reason for this is the Derby odds will be determined by 130,000 people who bet one day a year. The odds in futures are determined by hard-core horse racing fans, trying to find value. A horse who is 20/1 in this pool is more likely to be under 15/1 on Kentucky Derby Day. Derby Day bettors are just betting – they don’t look at odds.
Last year several horses who won 50 point races were injured and failed to make the starting gate. This year several contenders with minimal points got hurt and it may take 30 points to make the final Derby Field.
With the rising odds of the Derby favorite in recent years, most likely the favorite this year over 5/1 and most likely 8 horses will be under 11/1. The value is finding horses who are over 15/1 who will be under 11/1 in 36 days.
Horses who most likely need a top 2 finish in the final round of preps to make the Derby Field: Bayern, Candy Boy, Constitution, In Trouble, Social Inclusion.
New Shooters:
Chitu – Sunland Derby confirmed this horse has some fight, after coming off the pace in the RB Lewis, he pressed a fast pace for a half mile at Sunland and then took the best punch of Midnight Hawk before prevailing after a long stretch drive. Pedigree is the main issue – son of Henny Hughes indicates 10 furlongs may be a little long for his scope. Mare side does have some stamina influences. Running style of presser is a concern at this time with projected field. Form is solid with 2 races as a juvenile and 2 races as 3-year-old. 20/1 fair odds.
Hoppertunity took advantage of a muddy track and improved his speed in the Rebel Stakes to garner 50 points and establish a spot in Kentucky. Running style and pedigree indicates 10 furlongs should not be a concern. Did not races as a 2-year-old. Looks like he will run all day and has shipped twice. A solid final prep and shipping to Kentucky should prepare him well for a good run. Final prep will be in Santa Anita Derby. Fan club has been slow to develop. Odds will be lower on Derby Day.
Ring Weekend showed a whole new dimension in the Tampa Bay Derby. Field he beat was questionable in Tampa, but has now run 3 straight races that indicate the improvement is real. Has won from off the pace and as front-runner. The Cryptoclearance on the mare side says mud and distance should not be an issue. Not getting a lot of respect from the pundits, but this horse seems to be training and running well. Not a bad horse taking a shot with some tickets at 50/1.
Social Inclusion is a complete wild-card. With 2 lifetime races and none as a juvenile. He started his career with a powerful victory, drawing away after breaking slow. Allowance win was mainly the product of being the lone speed in a five horse field and being in sharp form. Lots of questions to be answered. Class, new track, longer distance, no juvenile foundation. Questions can be good. This horse offers no value with zero points and needs a top 2 finish in the Wood Memorial to make the Kentucky Derby starting gate. Reports of possible sale prices of up to 8 million dollars have not been finalized and looks like now he may not be sold before the Wood Memorial.
We Miss Artie according to someone who wrote on Bloodhorse “Has more heart than the Tin Man after he left Oz” while heart-warming may not tell the whole story. He’s a photo finish away from finishing 3rd and being Mr. Irrelevant in this year’s Derby Field. Has proven on dirt that he’s not capable of competing with the top 10 horses of this generation. This one is for fans of people named “Artie”.
Back in the Game – Listed after being absent in Pool 2 or Pool 3
Albano is on shaky ground going into the Louisiana Derby, is on the fence points wise and distance a concern for this 1/2 brother to Mark Valeski. Odds will be long and if you think he has a shot of finishing in top 2 in Louisiana then dive in.
Bobby’s Kitten was listed in pool 1 and pool 2, was dropped in pool 3. Has one race on the turf this year and still looking for derby points. He will have one prep on the poly in the Bluegrass which will be a tough field of 12 horses. If he takes to the poly, he runs in Kentucky for all the money. Kitten adds stamina to the equation. Forestry is a solid dirt sire on the mare side. Has alternated dirt and turf workouts both this year and last year. I like this chances of making the starting gate. Many successful turf horses in the past have fired one successful dirt race. Longshot with a chance.
Bayern missed his scheduled race in the Lewis Stakes and most likely will ship to Arkansas for his all or nothing entry into the Derby. Has flashed tremendous talent and has a longer work tab that Social Inclusion. Social Inclusion has much more hype surrounding him, but Bayern has shown just as much talent and will be longer odds in pool 4. Running style has been that of presser and early speed which does not go well with this field. Raw talent is probably worth 18/1 or better in pool 4.
California Chrome turned the Lewis into a runaway victory. This guy has run 3 straight races that put him in the mix of a strong derby run. Couple of caveats. Has a pedigree that leans towards speed. Ran last year as a 2-year-old at 4 1/2 furlongs. Been in training for a long time. Santa Anita Derby will be his final prep. Is the 5/1 favorite for Pool 4 and that is way too low a price. More likely to be 15/1 come Saturday afternoon on May 3rd.
Candy Boy: another who needs a top 2 finish in the Santa Anita Derby to make the starting gate. Son of Candy Ride has the pedigree to go 10 furlongs and his off the pace running style and the move he made in the Cashcall Futurity would be a perfect move for Kentucky, has been heavily supported in last 2 pools, may offer the same value in pool 4, since he has been away for a while. If he wins the Santa Anita Derby, will be among the top 4 choices at Churchill. The side note is that he needs a top 2 finish in the Santa Anita Derby to ensure a starting spot. High Risk – High Reward – Demand 17/1 odds.
General A Rod runs in Florida on Saturday and faces three other threats for all the money and a chance to make the Churchill Downs field. Running style has been close to the pace, but long-term this horse I could see sitting 10th in the Derby and making his run. Runs a solid race every time and figures class wise.
In Trouble is entered in the Louisiana Derby, but may scratch and not ship, opting instead for the Wood Memorial. One prep in 2013 and faded late. Louisiana has a long stretch and facing other speed. Will need to bring his top race on the 2nd race off the layoff. 35/1 odds with all the eggs in the basket for a top 2 finish.
Constitution may be the speed of the speed Saturday but needs a top 2 finish to capture enough points to make the Derby starting gate. Cairo Prince is also looking for points. No Juvenile races and need to lead so far in his races leaves me on the outside looking in with this horse. Small chance of making the starting gate.
Intense Holiday: Has enough points and runs as the favorite in the Louisiana Derby. Running style is perfect for this field which features a lot of speed. He also likes to pass horses down the lane. Been working well. More than likely to be a lower price on Derby Day than in Pool 4 – worth betting in this pool if want a few more ticks on your odds.
Midnight Hawk has enough points, but has faced 3 straight monsters in Derby preps. Runs a game race every time and pedigree says 10 furlongs will be hard for him to master on May. 3rd. Can’t endorse based on running style and pedigree.
Ride on Curlin has danced every dance and comes back for more. Arkansas Derby is next on his dance card and a top 3 finish puts him in Churchill Downs. One of the few horses in this field who can run on the pace and come from behind. Should like the surface of Churchill Downs and is one of the horses that the average fan will bet, based on the name and connections. Not the worst of bets at the price.
Samraat is a New York Bred, who does not care where he was bred. Started his career as a fast sprinter and has successfully stretched out and remained undefeated, while winning two stretch runs with Uncle Sigh. Pace figures may be under-reported running at Aqueduct in the winter time. Has a string of one mile workouts in past couple of months. Been shipping down to Florida for R & R and then running in New York. Has been 30/1 in last two pools, so the average handicapper has not gravitated towards this guy. Nice form, solid speed figures and undefeated. 20/1 is a solid price on a horse who will be much lower on May 3rd.
Tapiture finished pool two at 38/1 and immediately made that value with a victory in the Southwest Stakes. Was probably best in Rebel Stakes, lacking room coming out of the turn into the stretch. Trained by Steve Asmussen currently who will be the hub of controversy come derby week. Karma says stay away.
Uncle Sigh has made Rocky I and II memorable and gets his rematch with Samraat in Rocky III in the Wood Memorial. Has been the hunted in both match-ups with Samraat. Last race had to chase In Trouble at the rail and was pressured from Samraat from the outside. Continues to train well and could turn the tables on Samraat in the Wood with an outside post draw and different riding tactics. His speed figures are also better than looked. Odds in pools 2 and 3 have been 80-1 and 50/1. Figures to be 30/1 again on Saturday. Worth a few win tickets.
Vicar’s In Trouble returns into the entries after running 3rd in Risen Star Stakes. Missed a few days of training, but has been back on the work tab. Has some big speed figures to cycle back to if good enough. Drew better post position in Louisiana Derby. Long odds in pool 2 and figures to be long odds again in pool 4. May offer value in pool 4 as people seem to be gravitating towards the New Faces. Like his running style and if he gets into the Derby starting gate will probably be under 15/1 on Derby day.
Old Reliables – Made all 4 pools:
Cairo Prince has the big reputation needs to put it all together on Saturday with a top 2 finish to make the Derby field. Running style has been that of presser, but think he has the ability to lay back and make mid race run. Working strong, has been between 12-15 in both pools this spring. Will probably be 12/1 again on Saturday. A victory in the Florida Derby would make him probably Derby price of under 8/1. A loss may push his price to 15/1. High Risk, may be better playing off a possible loss on derby day. If you have futures on this guy, probably better to pass rather than double down. Races in new colors on Saturday.
Strong Mandate keeps on chugging along for The Coach – Lukas. Disappointing efforts in the Rebel and Southwest Stakes may discourage long-time fans. Pedigree says slop should be no issue if that develops on Derby Day. Only wins are in sprint and in slop. Arkansas Derby is next scheduled start and faces a salty group including Bayern who may ship in as the speed of the race. Price will be close to 30/1 in this field and those who truly have faith may get rewarded.
Field: is still in play. With several preps to be run – a Field bet may still get you 8 horses in the Derby Gate. 8/1 is a fair price on the field with 35 days until the Kentucky Derby.
Lower Risk: Enough points to make the field:
Hoppertunity, Intense Holiday, Tapiture, Wildcat Red, Samraat, Midnight Hawk, Chitu, California Chrome, We Miss Artie.