Overview: Bob Baffert nominated 14 of the 16 horses for the Robert Lewis Stakes after running three of four horses in the San Vincente Stakes. Banned from Churchill Downs from starting a horse in the 2023 Kentucky Derby, he will be able to use the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby if he switches his horses to another barn as automatic qualifiers for the Kentucky Derby. He can ship Arabian Knight to Arkansas Derby to eliminate a horse from that region. The Plot thickens.
Robert Lewis Analysis:
Arabian Lion is the likely favorite, based on his powerful maiden race. He did run out of money in his most recent race, the Los Al Futurity, and he is trying to bounce back in a four-horse field.
Newgate is a contender based on his runner-up effort in the Los Al Futurity. He came from off the pace in that race, which was encouraging. His maiden race was a wire-to-wire at Del Mar. There is also a strong chance he is sent in this race to establish the early lead and slow down the pace.
Worcester may end up being the “Other” Baffert in this race. He is a maiden after two starts but has faced highly regarded horses in both outings and now stretches out after sprinting twice. The Sprint/Sprint route is a strong pattern, and this is his third-lifetime race, a critical race that young horses can sometimes improve dramatically. He has the most upside of the horses in this race.
Hard to Figure is the outsider and is entered to “fill” the race. They usually cancel the race if they don’t get four entrants, so Bob Baffert obliged and filled the race with this colt.
Betting: Newgate has a chance to wire the race, Arabian Lion will likely be the favorite, and Worcester has the most upside. The trainer and jockeys can manipulate the pace and decide the outcome. Hard to recommend betting on this race. My top selection is Arabian Lion. Based on the betting line Worcester as a maiden may offer the most upside.