Overview: The Kentucky Derby Trail travels to the Sunshine State with the Holy Bull. The cadence quickens with three preps scheduled this week, including the Withers and Robert Lewis. The Juvenile Champions Forte is in Florida, but he will be unveiled in the Fountain of Youth.
Cyclone Mischief won an allowance race over a competitive group to get a race over the track. The DQ winner of the Mucho Macho Man Legacy Isle is also entered. Overall this field came to light with several horses training in Florida that elected to pass on this prep. The last winner of the Holy Bull stakes to win the Kentucky Derby was Barbaro in 2006, who pulled off the double.
Holy Bull Analysis:
Cyclone Mischief has the fastest Beyer and Brisnet speed figure in the race. Sired by Into Mischief, he has shown the ability to win on the lead at Keeneland and from off a hot pace, as he did in an Allowance race last outing. He has fired off two workouts since the last race and should be fit for the 8.5 furlongs. He has raced at Keeneland, Churchill, and Gulfstream and brings a top effort every race.
Rocket Can brings form in from Saratoga and chased good horses in all his starts. His best Beyer speed figure is 82, which is slower than the 90 that Cyclone Mischief achieved in his last race. His best chance to win will likely be on the lead and slowing down the pace.
Legacy Isle went wire to wire in the Mucho Macho Man, and the speed figure came back light in that race. Still, the quality of the field featured a couple of promising runners. He will be on the pace but needs the raw speed to bury the rest of the competition early. He will need a tactical ride with Cyclone Mischief and Rocket Can in close pursuit.
Lord Miles is adding blinkers, and that should help his early speed. He has been at the rear of the pack in his early starts and then moving late at the wire. He should improve in his third-lifetime start and has two trips over the track. The price will be right at 5/1.
Betting: Cyclone Mischief has the advantage on the speed figures and current fitness. His latest workout on XBTV was a vigorous workout, and he should be fit after a short break with four workouts and a race over the track. Lord Miles is also a win contender, and the price will be 5/1 and could be closer to the pace with blinkers. My play is Cyclone Mischief to win an exacta box with Lord Miles.