The runners have been released for the KDFW pool number four for 2022. New horses are available to bet, and three runners from the Tampa Bay Derby: Major General, Classic Causeway, and Shipsational are options in pool four. The Tampa Bay Derby will influence the final odds. My focus is based on the overall potential to reach the starting gate, pedigree, and will they be under 15/1 on Kentucky Derby Day.
Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 Field
Barber Road has an excellent chance to get into the race; a top-four finish in the Arkansas Derby would put him in the starting gate. He is slowly improving, but he also has seven races, so not sure how much more improvement he can make in the next 30 days. Unless he wins the Arkansas Derby, you can snag a hefty price in pool five or on Derby Day.
Call Me Midnight – He most likely does not make the starting gate. He has only 10 points and will go into the Louisiana Derby off a two-month break and face a higher class field in the Lecomte. Deep closer may have fired his best shot already. No Value unless 60/1 or higher.
Charge It – they have settled on the Florida Derby as the race to make the starting gate. There is still room for improvement, and the pedigree potential is substantial on both the sire and female families. Price will be around 15-20/1, but they will be closing the pool five odds before the Florida Derby, so you get a few extra weeks to see if he trains well, but the price may be lower.
Classic Causeway runs Saturday in the Tampa Bay Derby. If he does well and doesn’t place top two, he most likely doesn’t make the race. He has the talent, but looking at the 8/1 price on Derby day, taking anything less than 15/1 in this pool does not seem likely to offer the best chance to maximize odds. Exactas may be the way to go in this pool if you like Classic Causeway.
Cyberknife will be a long price, but his allowance win on Risen Star Derby was a decisive win over a competitive field. He took off the blinkers and added lasix for that race, and both his successes are with lasix. The blinkers remaining off will most likely be in the offering for the next race. Anything over 50/1 may be worth a flyer because connections and pedigree will make him under 15/1 on Derby Day if he makes the starting gate.
Early Voting – still some confusion if he is pointing for the Kentucky Derby. Reports have indicated he is going to Wood Memorial and then Preakness. His speed figures are low, and his running style is one-dimensional. Most likely won’t be among the top two favorites in the Wood Memorial. The Wood is coming up deep with Morello and Mo Donegal as the top two-pointing for the race.
Emmanuel – ran extremely wide after a slow start and made a move early to get involved in the Florida Derby. He has talent, and his final start will most likely be the Blue Grass. He lost 3rd place late in Fountain of Youth, and the Blue Grass is getting to be a loaded field with Zandon and Smile Happy possibly pointing. Odds will go up in this pool, but his chances of making the race are all the eggs in one basket in Blue Grass or Florida Derby.
Epicenter took a fast track and uncontested lead in the Risen Star. The Track variant on Risen Star Day was 2 – which is very fast. He also ran nine furlongs and will have final Prep at 1 3/16 miles, and overall, that is a lot of racing before the first Saturday in May. Pool five may offer a better price than Pool four.
Ethereal Road – D Wayne off the plane had him closer to the pace, and his mid-race move might have been his undoing with a more timely ride; he might have won the Rebel Stakes. Final Prep will be Blue Grass or Arkansas Derby. The weaker race at this point seems like the Arkansas Derby. Fair Price is 40/1 or more because Lukas will run him if he has the necessary points.
Forbidden Kingdom – took advantage of a fast race track, small field, and uncontested pace in San Felipe’s win. His running style is hells bells, and usually, that doesn’t play well in the derby field. Most likely an underlay based on connections, pedigree, and recent dominating wins.
In Due Time one of the few horses that did not have any trouble in the Fountain of Youth and the jockey raced him to the wire looking for second place. He was saving ground when the incident in the Fountain of Youth may have impacted his momentum. Still, he is improving, and the Florida Derby is most likely his final Prep. His speed figures are near the top of this class, and his running style could play well in a big field. 50/1 is a fair price.
Major General – runs Saturday in Tampa Bay. He needs a top-three finish to make the race, and speed figures are slower than some of the top horses of this pool. He will have to run big Saturday at Tampa to be worth 20/1. Pool Five will most likely be a better price. He will most likely have just the one Prep if he wins the Tampa Derby. He is training up to the Kentucky Derby with only three career starts.
Mo Donegal will go into the Wood Memorial as the most likely favorite, and missing the Fountain of Youth was probably to his benefit. He is fit, had the one prep race earlier this winter, and the public has been betting this horse in all three pools. A fair price is 18/1 for a horse who most likely makes the race and will be under 12/1 on Derby day. Potentially a solid price and a horse who will be one of the potential top-six favorites on Kentucky Derby day.
Morello was odds on in the Gotham Stakes. Nearing the top of the stretch progressed from 7 furlongs to one mile and will point to the Wood Memorial with a matchup with Mo Donegal. He is a tight fit and has been running on demanding race tracks. The fair price is 15/1 or higher, and he should offer that in pool four. Three starts with three dominating wins and still some upside.
Pioneer of Medina has hinted at some potential and was a surprise winner at the Fairgrounds two starts back at 7/1. He elected to be taken off the pace in Risen Star and ran well to the stretch chasing horses for the first time. I am still improving, but I will have to get involved early in the Louisiana Derby to turn the tables on Epicenter. Exactas will be huge if you like him in this pool.
Rattle N Roll – the price will be right after fading late in Fountain of Youth. He did show more speed that day and was in position along the inside. Being inside a wall of horses off a long layoff was not the best of trips, and the trainer had indicated before the Fountain of Youth that he would run in the Louisiana Derby. He has an attractive resume. I pulled up at Saratoga and am now not pushed late at Gulfstream. His win at Keeneland in a Grade One left a strong impression. P pool four should be longer than pools two and three for the value shoppers and offers a Blue Light special at 28/1 or higher in this pool. He has proven class, has some upside, and will be sitting on a good pattern going into Kentucky after the Louisiana Derby.
Shipsational– the Pride of New York chased Classic Causeway, primed to run a strong race in the Sam F Davis. Speed figures put him in the mix but running Saturday in the Sam F Davis will lower his price with a top-two finish. Overall value might be better in pool five. Not sure if he has a chance to win the Kentucky Derby, his upside may be making the race.
Simplification has proven his speed and class. But he may be more likely to improve than some lightly raced horses. The final start will be in the Florida Derby, and will that be too much racing to compete in all four races of the Florida series? The value was pool three, and it seems like if you missed the wedding, don’t take the short price in pool four.
Smile Happy is another who most likely has the points. Pedigree still has some question marks, but the Risen Star was against the race flow and speed of the track. He did save ground and galloped out well. Price will be higher than pool two, and pool three – 14/1 or higher is a fair price.
Un Ojo picked up fifty points in Rebel Stakes and is less likely to improve with six races. Fair value is 60/1 or higher, and he may offer that in pool four.
White Abarrio – has the 10 points from the Holy Bull and will now point to the Florida Derby. It needs a top-two finish in a field that will feature Simplification, Charge It, and possibly other talented foes.
Zandon – finished third in his seasonal debut, and his final start will be in Blue Grass. He has been between 22/1 and 28/1 in pools two and three. Running style and speed figures will have him in the mix for the BlueGrass favoritism. But Smile Happy, Giant Game, and others will make that an entire field. Demand 28/1 for fair value or wait until pool five and take a lower price but two more weeks of workouts.
Zozos – Dominated an allowance race at Oaklawn Park. It’s a big ask going into 1 mile 3/16 Louisiana Derby with only two starts and a sprinting pedigree. Demand 50/1 or higher odds if taking a swing in this pool.
Field – Still a valid option with likely 7-8 horses will be in the gate not offered in this pool. The more profitable way would be to play exactas over a few combinations and extend that to 25/1 or higher—fair odds 8/1.