The time has come for Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool three. The handicapping analysis will look at contenders based on their path to the Kentucky Derby, their ability to improve, and their current training schedule.
Barber Road is most likely to try the Oaklawn Park route to the Kentucky Derby. Riding a 3 race losing streak and most likely starts next in the Rebel Stakes. Most likely to be 10/1 in the Rebel Stakes with currently no stakes wins and likely to be a longshot on Derby day. Not seeing a clear path to the derby and overall signs are not showing any immediate improvement. – No Bet
Call Me Midnight – was a longshot winner of the Lecomte Stakes and will pass the Risen Star and train up to the Louisiana Derby. Will need a top-two finish in final prep to make the race. Will be a long shot on derby day. No Bet
Chasing Time – Dominated a 1-mile allowance race at Oaklawn Park and is pointing to the Rebel Stakes. With five starts may not have as much room for development. One of several Not This Time colts who are on the triple crown trail. Pedigree is suspect for 9 furlongs and most likely to be one of the top three favorites in Rebel. Fair Odds – 30/1 or higher.
Classic Causeway – runs at Tampa Bay on Saturday and if he does well his odds will drop dramatically. Pedigree suggests room for improvement and has faced strong opponents in all three career races. A strong showing Saturday in the Sam F Davis puts him in the mix. –
Commandperformance – is still a maiden and most likely runs in a maiden race and then points for a 100 point race to get in the derby. Flattened out in Breeder’s Cup after running second in Champagne Stakes. Still a maiden no value in this pool.
Early Voting – Dominated the Withers Stakes in the 2nd-lifetime start. He will likely train up to Wood Memorial and face a tougher field for his chance to qualify for the starting gate. – Underlay – No Bet.
Emmanuel – Dominated a maiden race with some runners that have come back to win. Used Tampa allowance win as a two-turn debut. Most likely goes Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby as a path to Kentucky. Well-built horse with 1 prep as a juvenile. A win in Fountain of Youth puts him in the mix of top 10 contenders. Fair Odds 20/1 or higher
Epicenter – was the trip handicapper’s “Winner” of the Lecomte stakes taking heat and fighting on in stretch after being passed. Will face quality field in Risen Star if he is able to win that his odds will drop dramatically, but if he loses that he is on the tenuous path to qualify for starting gate.
Forbidden Kingdom – Ran fast in debut victory over highly regarded runners. Dominate San Vincente and continue to work fast. Man O Mandella trains and the pedigree is light on the female family and looks like a sprinter. Will run in San Felip and if able to win that could see him training up to Kentucky and trying to build up his stamina with a series of long works. Too much speed is a “My Racehorse” syndicate horse so odds are low. No Bet.
God of Love has a seep foundation with four races as a juvenile and three on synthetic runs at Tampa Bay and a strong showing will give him a chance to earn his way with a final 100 point prep race
Happy Boy Rocket – improved his speed figure in 2nd lifetime start by 7-speed points and stretched out two 2-turns. Fountain of Youth is a possibility for the next start.
Howling Time – ran on the front end in Kentucky Jockey Club Juvenile after pressing the pace in his first two career starts. Three races as a juvenile should give him a strong foundation and likely makes two preps to try and qualify for the first Friday in May. Scratch from Sam F Davis – Worth a flyer at current odds of 80/1.
In Due Time – impressive in Gulfstream Allowance win and speed figure was 94 on the Brisnet scale. Ran overlooked 3rd in a strong allowance race at Gulfstream has options for 4th career start and has been training since mid-November for a solid sophomore foundation. Career debut was a game effort taking a lot of heat from the beginning of the race. Race progression and works are pointing to him peaking at the right time. Fair Odds 25/1.
Major General – works are picking up and pedigree solid with distance on the male side and class and speed on the female side. Show grit in their debut over a quality field and came off the pace in 2nd career start. Needs to improve speed figures in the 3rd-lifetime start which is often a key start for quality horses. Fair Odds 50/1.
Make it Big earned stakes win in a moderate Remington Park Stakes race. Will run Saturday at Tampa a win will lower odds. Has to negotiate class rise. – No Value
Mo Donegal has a distance pedigree and is slowly developing. The final prep for Kentucky will be Wood Memorial. Three two-turn races in 4 career starts. Current Odds are under 10/1. Will be longer in Pool 4 than in pool 3. – Solid horse fair odds 30/1.
Pappacap distance is a question and most likely will show more speed in the Risen Star after being off the pace and having inside trips the last two races. Breeders Cup Juvenile form has not developed early in the three-year-old season. Too many question marks and not enough room for improvement for the current price. No Bet.
Rattle N Roll will try a two-start campaign to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Had a minor injury to close the two-year-old season. Three works into his Sophomore campaign and Tampa Bay Derby is the most likely unveiling for a three-year-old debut. Fair Odds 30/1.
Simplification ran a tremendous race in the Fountain of Youth but ran into Razor-sharp White Abarrio and broke slow and was rushed into a wide trip. Fountain of Youth Stakes is next. Fair Odds 100/1.
Slow Down Andy – will run next in Risen Star. Strong series of works for Doug O’Neill for the California Bred. Fair Odds 40/1.
Smile Happy is the buzz horse after two visually impressive wins as a two-year-old campaign. Pleasant Tap on female side and modest purchase price 185K. Speed figure progression as a Juvenile with an 87 in debut and 98 on the Brisnet scale to close season in a G2 stakes race.
White Abarrio – Has dominated three of four races and private purchase after debut race. Will train up to Florida Derby as his path to Kentucky will likely get a better price in Pool four after the next 3 prep winners receive all the buzz in the next 3 weeks. Fair value 25/1 odds in pool 4 may be higher.
Zandon will run in Risen Star may have been best in Remsen after brushing with Mo Donegal. Chad Brown has been deliberate with his training and should have him fit for a three-year-old debut. Talent is equal to Mo Donegal and currently 4 times the price. Fair Value 35/1.