The Kentucky Derby Future Wager KDFW 2015 pool 2 returns this weekend offering soothsayers and prognosticators another chance to double down from pool 1 or dive into the mix. The Robert Lewis and Withers stakes are this weekend so participants will be able to factor in the results of those races into the odds. With the current Future Wager in place there is no true “Value” in the win pool.
Win wager and exactas are more for “bragging” rights than offering wagering value. The notes below are based on what most of these horses may do in the future, regarding potential, not what they have done. A horse like Itsaknockout is much more intriguing than a horse like Daredevil.
American Pharoah is the 2-year-old champion who is being pointed for a 2 race prep campaign with the Rebel and Arkansas Derby being the targets at this point. Was heavily supported in pool 1 and offers no real value, odds will probably be the same in pool 3. At this point no value, high risk low odds.
Carpe Diem has the pedigree and juvenile foundation that makes him an attractive option. Will have 2 preps with the Bluegrass Stakes his most likely final prep. 20/1 or higher is fair price. Lots of upside with a horse that looks built to travel 9 furlongs and has enough speed to stay within striking distance. Classy, well-built router is worth a shot at 20/1.
Competitive Edge is back for Pool 2 after being listed in pool 1. Nothing has changed. No recent races. Work Tab shows 4 works and is not going to race until March. Value may be in Pool 3. Could drift up to 60-70 in this pool so if you think he fits as a top 3 favorite in his comeback race that would be the strategy to play a horse like this. The downside is he has had surgery and seems like a front-runner. Was trained for speed to sell as 2-year-old. His “Stakes” win was a small field against over matched horses. Long road to make the race.
Daredevil presents a conundrum on the handicapping end. He has a big “speed” figure in the Champagne. The first 2 races of his career were run in the “Slop” which he obviously loved in both races. In the Breeders Cup Juvenile had the outside post and raced wide and then retreated. The key question is can he run fast on a dry surface, is he more than just a one-dimensional speed-ball? Swale stakes at 7 furlongs seems like odd spot for the comeback if he is thinking route distances. Overall too many questions at even 60/1.
Dortmund runs in the Robert Lewis and was favored in Pool 1. Big horse, massive frame and has been working well. Best chance to get any value would be if he were to lose the Robert Lewis and drift up in odds. If he wins the Robert Lewis will most likely end up Pool 2 favorite. Good horse and low odds.
El Kabeir closed at 74/1 in pool 1. One of the top 2 favorites in the Withers. His finish in that race will determine his final odds in Pool 2. Does have enough points to make the race if that comes into play down the road. Seems to be fit. Has plenty of races and just has to prove he is Grade 1 quality in the next 70 days. Most people question his distance ability. But he has proved himself at this class level and a big Withers showing could lead to a 35/1 shot with a solid chance of making the race and well conditioned by a New York winter. Had to imagine a Scat Daddy getting 10 furlongs on the dirt.
Far Right won a stakes race at Oaklawn when Mr Z bolted. Ran well late, but long-term don’t like his chances at 10 furlongs. Is more of a plodder and deep closer and not sure that plays well in a full field. Has gotten rail trips the last 2 races. Moves up in class, longshot to make the race. Slower than 10-12 horses on this list.
Firing Line runs in Robert Lewis and will face Dortmund and Bolo. Commanding presence on the track and Gary Stevens has committed to ride this imposing son of Line of David. Speed and tactical ability should suit him well. Major player from the West Coast. If he runs a solid race in the Robert Lewis will probably be a little underlay in the betting pools. Value may lie in Pool 3 with that pool a week before the San Felipe.
Frosted has shown talent since day one. With 4 lifetime seconds and 1 win, he is developing the reputation as a horse who doesn’t like to win. Solid effort finishing 2nd in the Holy Bull and was not all out down the stretch in that race. Good juvenile form, speed numbers are good and could improve. Fountain of Youth is the next race.
Imperia is pointing to the Risen Star. Is probably a little “slower” than many of the top contenders at this point. But he does have some solid form and has a pedigree to get the distance. Out of sight and out of mind 30/1 or higher is a good price with this pedigree and potential. Mike Smith riding in the Risen Star and work tab is slowly coming around. Classy female family and solid juvenile foundation. If you want a horse bred for distance and with a good foundation and class level this is the guy.
Gorgeous Bird is an allowance winner with a pedigree and body build that should run all day. Long leggy colt with upside will run next in Fountain of Youth. 40/1 or higher is fair odds on this Gray colt with a future. Horse has been brought along slowly and is on the improve which is important this time of year.
International Star is next scheduled to run in the Risen Star. Should be able to get to the Derby and he will probably be closer to 20/1 on Derby Day. Being overlooked a little, has some talent and 10 furlongs should not be the issue. Needs to improve but has time for that.
Itsaknockout has impressed with back to back wins to start his career defeating a full maiden field of 13 horses and then came back with a 5 length win at a mile distance. Pedigree has “classic” distance written all over him and is in the 3rd race of his form cycle coming up next in the Fountain of Youth. Longshot if over 40/1 or more and lots to like as a fresh horse with a couple of races over the track. Distance pedigree adds more to the intrigue.
J S Bach bet heavily in both his recent races and drew off to the big maiden win in most recent start. Runs near the pace and runs with a quick stride of a sprinter. Not sure he will ultimately be a distance horse. Demand 60/1 odds if playing him in pool 2.
Khozan is a half-brother to champion Royal Delta. Expensive 2-year-old sale price, high-profile connections and 102 Beyer speed figure will guarantee a low price. Realistically he is fighting the clock to find an allowance race. Will likely get 1 crack at a big points race. Big risk and not sure there is a big reward. If you like the pedigree dive in.
Lord Nelson may be under-appreciated with 2 stakes wins and a legitimate excuse in the Kentucky Jockey Club race. Has the looks of a router and in shape and pointing for a stakes race in next start. May be overlooked.
Mr. Z is a complete head case at this point. Snapped defeat from Victory in his last race by drifting out at Oaklawn Park. With 1 victory in 8 starts tough to back on a win ticket at this time. Still pointing to Southwest Stakes for next start. Too many unknowns for me to wager on.
Ocho Ocho Ocho is back on the work tab and undefeated juvenile is fast. How far he can carry that speed is the main question. Light frame and has positional speed to get position. San Felipe is the comeback race and probably the Santa Anita Derby the next stop. 50/1 is fair value.
Ocean Knight is the now horse and will probably take a lot of action at the windows off impressive Sam Davis trip going wide on both turns and winning comfortably with a solid Beyer speed figure. The current plan is to go the Derby with 3 lifetime starts and 2 preps, which leaves him light on experience. Still has zero points and Tampa Bay Derby could come up with 10 or 11 horse field. Fair value is 30/1 and will probably be under 20/1.
Prospect Park jumped into the fray with a big allowance win. All options are open for next race including Sunland, San Felipe, Rebel and Fairgrounds. Son of Tapit should not be a concern and mare has produced 2 stakes winners. This is a nice looking horse and seems to be turning the corner at the right time. Longshot with a chance.
Texas Red the Breeders Cup Juvenile champion took advantage of a pace duel and won by 7 lengths. The margin of victory is not consistent with his 6 career starts. He was soundly defeated in the Front Runner and was beaten twice in maiden races. San Vincente effort was solid. Pedigree is a little obscure and not sure 10 furlongs is his ultimate distance. Looks like late running sprinter who is being trained to run long, if he is closer to the pace he loses some of his kick. Nice horse low odds and if he does win a prep race it will be by 1 length his body of work is average with 1 strange race being the runaway victory.
The Great War Rocked at Turfway in a minor stakes race this past weekend. Has a great development patters with 7 starts as a Juvenile and ran a credible 4th in the Breeders Cup on the pace the whole way. Expensive youngster is fast. War Front is known as a turf influence and 10 furlongs may be stretching his speed. But he will be 1/5 in the Battaglia and then will have to face 11 horses in the Spiral Stakes most likely. Taking synthetic path to Churchill Downs. 40/1 is value. Lots of upside. Playble in a few exactas.
Upstart visually impressed with a 3 wide trip in the Holy Bull on a day when “wide” was the place to be. Impressive Beyer number of 105 has him in the mix speed wise. Has run in some classy races and never runs a bad race. Needs to improve but looks like a top 10 contender at this point. Fair price is 17-20/1 – under 15/1 you can get than in Pool 3 most likely.
The Field still has 10-15 horses that are going to be pointed for big points races. Most likely the field bet will have 10 horses in the final gate come the first Saturday in May. 3/2 is the logical price.
Pretenders: Mr. Z, Ocho Ocho Ocho, Far Right, Competitive Edge, Daredevil
Higher Risk/High Upside: The Great War, Carpe Diem, Prospect Park, Itsaknockout