The best from the West, Midwest and East converge this year at Santa Anita. If any of the 3 favorites win they will be the Winter Book Favorite for the Kentucky Derby 2015.
The Skinny:
Carpe Diem has impressed visually in both races and few horses can match winning a maiden race at 5.5 furlongs in debut and 8.5 furlong races in 2nd lifetime races. Monster pedigree and proven female family being a 1/2 brother to J.B’s Thunder. Has the ability to rate behind horses which may come in handy. Horse he dueled into the ground at Keeneland – came back to win a small stakes at Churchill Downs. Has shown lots of ability.
Daredevil has 2 races and 2 off tracks wins and relished the slop in the last race. Both speed numbers came back big and visually he finished well in both races, but more because he adored the slop. Shipping West, facing other speed and going 2 turns is tough to take at short odds. Chances helped significantly when American Pharoah scratched. Less Speed and moves up one spot in the post position.
Calculator ran 48 more feed than American Pharoah in the Frontrunner. But after 4 races is still a maiden, may be distanced challenged. Some positives but aggressive placing for a maiden. Will get speed to run at in this race, but last race may be as good as it gets for him. With 4 races he may start regressing.
Upstart was my choice in the Champagne and closed into the slop and ran well. He was packed away late and saved some for the Juvenile. He will be able to take advantage of a full field and hopefully a contested pace. Distance and running style should not be a problem and capable of a breakout performance if everything falls right. Outside post, but with American Phaorah out has an upset chance.
Mr. Z bounced back in the Keeneland Futurity. Long Term has some upside, may not be a “fast” horse, but really professional and seems to like racing, this will be a good race to make a mid race move and see where he fits with this crop of horses. Precocious runner looks ready to go the distance.
Texas Red visually impressed in last race, made a sweeping move coming for home and finished strong in defeat. Pedigree says more miler type and body style hints as a sprinter, but so far seems to be outrunning pedigree. Overall not sold on his chances of winning, but could run in top 4.
Souper Colossal was a resounding winner of the Sapling Stakes and went to the front that day and put them away early. Has been training long and frequent for the last month. Paco will come West, adds speed to the race and may help soften up the pace from Daredevil and American Pharoah. He has some talent so he will keep a couple of these guys honest. Not sure if he can win unless he gets uncontested lead. Big workout on Monday – will be on the pace. Paco did not come West to look at the Mountains.
One Lucky Dane zoomed his way to a 9 length win. Son of Lookin at Lucky has run well in all 3 races and looks like one who runs evenly and appreciate the longer distances. He also chased OM in debut race. On the improve and working well. Has run hard for 3 straight races. Was visually impressive on the gallop out last race and workouts indicate he has a lot of stamina. If he can rate and come off the pace may get involved down the lane.
The Choice:
Carpe Diem is the now horse. Upstart has a big shot and Souper Colossal has been too impressive to ignore. One Lucky Dane moves up with the scratch of American Pharoah.
Tosses:
Daredevil has inflated speed figures in the mud, shipping west and other speed he is a toss for me. Calculator may be ready to regress after the big effort last race.