Top horses out East battle it out at the classic distance of 10 furlongs. The JCGC is a traditional Belmont distance race that looks to separate the pecking order at ten furlongs. A full field awaits the gate on Saturday.
The Skinny:
Moreno – Brings speed to the party but is 3 for 20 lifetime. Best race this year was Suburban at 10 furlongs but surrendered late to Zivo. Itsmyluckyday tracked and passed last race. Overall I think he is regressing after 4 straight solid races. Moreno has had a long campaign a tough JCGC effort probably forces further regression.
V E Day – Owns 4 straight wins and pulled of the Curlin – Travers “double” at the Saratoga meet. Has pulled off 3 straight head bob decisions. Highly doubt that string continues.
Zivo – Ran well on speed biased track in last race. Expect him to be possible for top 3 finish and may be a little overlooked in this spot.
Prayer for Relief – has improved in last 2 races and fits well in this spot. Overall not sold he is a true Grade 1 horse at ten furlongs. Has a strong workout pattern and runs from mid -pack recently. Not sure the pace works in his favor in this race.
Wicked Strong – Has improved with blinkers and continues to work well, makes his own breaks and runs well in the Big Apple – should get first jump on Moreno and Big Cazanova
Big Cazanova – Was impressive in two wire to wire wins out West. Has back class from previous years and fits in this aggressive spot. Clearly has more speed and better pedigree and running style for ten furlongs than Moreno. Looks very formidable in this spot.
Tonalist – Used too much energy last race in the Travers running a 22 and 3 opening quarter which is CRAZY fast going ten furlongs. Best race was maiden win – when allowed to settle. This is for all the marbles. I expect him to change running style and come from 7 lengths off the pace. Finally gets a full field with contested pace and he doesn’t have to do any of the dirty work.
The Last Gunfighter – Brings a Bowie knive into all these East Coast races but he does help reduce the overall track take – because some people bet on him and others use him when playing the all button.
Derbyologist Line:
These are the minimum odds – I would play these horses on win bets.
Tonalist – 4/1
Big Cazanova 7/1
Wicked Strong 5/1
Moreno – 10/1
Prayer For Relief 12/1
Zivo – 6/1
Last Gunfighter 30/1
The Selection:
Zivo ran against the track bias last time and beat Moreno on the Square in the Suburban. Tonalist will run further off the pace this race and gets a big bulky field to show his talents.Big Cazanova has a huge shot in this race and is the speed. Odds will be right.