The Jerome Stakes is the first race of the 2014 season designated as a “Derby Point Race” by Churchill Downs. The Jerome is non-graded but the 200K purse and 10 Derby points to the winner and 4 points to the runner-up was enticing enough to draw a field of 8.
Noble Moon enters as the “Class” of the field with his 3rd place finish the Nashua Stakes G2 in his last start. Noble Moon opened many national horse player eyes onto his talent with his wide sustained move after breaking dead last in a 12 horse field, entered the stretch in 8th place and just missed 2nd when Financial Mogul passed him late in the stretch. Noble Moon “flashed” his talent in debut race winning wire to wire at 25/1 odds at Belmont Park. The Maiden breaker was a combination of natural speed and was done in hand without much pressure, defeating several promising colts in that race. Talented horses have versatile running styles and Noble Moon has run 2 races with two different race shapes. Noble Moon was expected to run in the Remsen Stakes but broke out with a case of “The Hives” and had to scratch. Alex Solid was the jockey in the first two races, Irad Ortiz riding well and one post should work out perfect with an 8 horse field. Fit and ready with 3 strong workouts in December including a mile workout in under 1:40 last week, Noble Moon is fit and ready in the Jerome.
Scotland still a maiden after two starts, finished 2nd to Surfing USA in 2nd career start, runs close to the pace and may be eligible to improve, not sure if he wants distance by Mr. Greeley out of Vicar mare. The pedigree and body style says sprinter. One thing to his advantage is that he has run in 11 and 13 horse fields in first two races.
Matuszak started his career with a promising victory at Churchill Downs losses in 3 straight races have lowered expectations, does take a class drop after running in the G2 Remsen, his running style has been that of a complete closer and may not have the speed to stay close in the early stages of the race.
Master Lightning danced both the Nashua and Remsen dances but seems to be regressing, no excuse for fading in the Remsen off the slow fractions of that race. Has an off track pedigree and made need to find sloppy track or softer field to display best talent. His best win was a wire to wire victory on October 5th at Belmont Park, I expect him to show speed with new jockey Cornelio Velasquez.
Lawmaker picked up his maiden certificate at Laurel taking the entire stretch to pass a stubborn front-runner who had made the pace and put away the other pace horses. Lawmaker was the only horse who closed in that race, galloped out nice, should improve but not a lot of natural speed. Working consistently for Chad Brown and son of Malibu Moon out of a Sir Cat mare! Hansen was out of a Sir Cat mare. Could improve but will be bet down with the human connections and handicappers like to bet on Malibu Moon’s.
Pace Scenario: Predicting pace in 3 Year Olds races until June can be tricky, but is becoming increasingly important, as the past few years – Horse Racing has become Jockey and Pace racing, Noble Moon has the speed to take the lead, but they may be looking to rate for future development. I expect Master Lightning to control the pace and be sent to the lead with lack of speed on paper, expect soft fractions.
Selections:
Noble Moon is the choice, speed, class, fresh and fit and has the looks of a top runner, Master Lightning rounds out the chalky exacta. Matuszack 3rd. Lawmaker also has a chance to comple the “Malibu Moon” exacta.