The Indiana Derby a traditional fall fixture the last couple of years has been moved to mid July and an earlier spot on the calendar. This year’s card came up with competitive races in the Indiana Derby and Indiana Oaks.
Indiana Derby
Mr Z picked up that long elusive 2nd win last out with a spine tingling 3 horse photo defeating Diving Rod and holding off Tencedur in a dramatic finish. Mr Z is who he is at this point, he can compete at the G3 level, has tactical speed and will be forwardly placed in this spot. Capable of winning, but the 6/1 last time may have been the time to cash. The son of Malibu Moon hits hard in this spot. A top five finish makes Mr. Z a Millionaire!
Divining Rod did a lot of the dirt work last race in the Ohio Derby and dueled and made a couple of moves with Mr. Z early in that race that may have softened him up late. Chance to turn the tables on the Z Monsters.
Tiz Shea D has been placed in overzealous spots since his maiden win. Proven to be a cut below the Grade 2 level, facing battle tested horses in Mr. Z and Divining Rod. Third place finish is probably the best he could do in this spot.
Alabaster ran evenly in the Corn Crib Derby at Prairie Meadows. This two-time winner is a cut below the best, but has a few races that puts him in the mix. Moves up in class, is a tad slow on speed, but overall form has him running his usual race.
Bold Conquest had no chance in the Matt Winn Stakes with the surface. Trying to stay close early with the field did not help his running style. Look for him to lay back in this spot and make one run going into the turn. Dangerous at a price in this race.
Island Town looked good in his most recent start at Churchill Downs. The track surface played kind to inside speed on that day and his performance may have looked more impressive on “paper” with the speedy surface. Talented, but with 3/1 odds overall this is a lean against.
Far Right did little running in the Ohio Derby and failed to menace down the lane. He may have peaked in March. Best style is to come from the clouds, but is able to run inside and outside horses. Corey Lanerie jumps in the saddle for the first time and that may be a wake up call.
Deliverance Day steps up in class after a nice win at Churchill Downs. Has always hinted at some ability and may be putting in all together in back to back starts. Still a major rise in class, has the pedigree to go the distance and sharp trainer can spot them in the right races. Logical step up in class and may be a little fresher than some of these horses.
The Choice:
Bold Conquest is the bet back from last race. Change in surface, change in jockey and similar in ability for a field that may have a hard time improving off last race’s effort. Divining Rod is the next most likely and those are the 2 to key wagers around.