The top talent in Florida has assembled for the Holy Bull Stakes a traditional prep that opens the doors for trainers to stay in Florida, ship out for a final prep to New York or travel to the Fairgrounds. Most talented prep race to date of the 2014 season.
Cairo Prince had a brief but productive juvenile campaign breaking his maiden in impressive fashion, dominating the Nashua Stakes and then getting beat a nose by highly regarded Honor the Code in a strangely run Remsen Stakes. Kiarin McLaughlin has been openly critical of the ride by Luis Saez in the Remsen, in that race after taking the lead he let up on the horse and was bobbed at the wire by Honor Code. Cairo Prince was also giving 6 pounds to Honor Code that day. Pioneerof the Nile is a son of Empire Maker and with limited foals looks to be producing some route horses. Holy Bubbette (Holy Bull) has a speedy pedigree but has a family of runners. Trainer been talking openly and confidently about this horse for two months. Expect another top effort and has 2 races that beats this entire field if able to match one of them off the layoff.
Coup De Grace steps up in class after impressive back-to-back victories in a Maiden race at Belmont, followed by a steady score at Gulfstream in a NW 1 Allowance. Coup De Grace has been showing some talent in the mornings and has been bet down hard in both his life-time races. This son of Tapit is a bay and so far has broke from the gate well in both races, with the 1 hole he should establish good position, look for a tracking trick from 4th place. Jockey John Velasquez is a top rider but coming off the injury may not be as sharp at judging the pace which is going to be key to this race. Natural ability Coup De Grace has sharp speed, a race over the track and has never really been asked in either race, expecting a big performance win or lose.
Big Bizanga ships down from Woodbine for his U.S. Debut. Flashed speed in big victory and then last race made a mid race move on first dirt start in Delta Jackpot. Has talent and this may be a tightener for a race out of town, the waters are deep here and just does not have the natural speed of Cairo Prince, Coup De Grace or Almost Famous and I don’t think he can out-finish Wicked Strong, Conquest Titan and Our Caravan. Rock meet Hard Place.
Mr. Speaker goes to the dirt for the first time and has slowly inched into form on the turf. His last race was more impressive than looked, he saved a lot of ground and was able to close with the race flow that favored closers on the turf, but he did split horses and was ridden confidently from the half mile pole. Classy pedigree on the female side. Has shown some racing ability, not sure if he has shown the speed to stay competitive with the top guns and still hold off a better closer like Conquest Titan.
Our Caravan surprised the betting public at 35/1 in debut win. Off the pace move into a slow pace was impressive as he went into the top pair by himself without being able to draft, made a quick move to get involved in the race and finished strong down the stretch, some upside with this colt. Pedigree on mare side is class with some distance influence in the 2nd generation. Visually the maiden win was impressive and work tab has been consistent, long work tab to debut race indicates this horse is in shape and being prepared for distance races. This horse is playable in future races and may hit the board Saturday, not expecting to win, but he fits closer with many of these than people think despite the one race.
Conquest Titan changed in running style in last race at Churchill Downs that was a resounding success was rated in last after showing speed in first races of career and made rapid move while running wide into contention on the turn and finished full of run, defeating General A Rod who came back to win the Gulfstream Park Derby. The number of horses who can change from a front-runner to deep closer is limited and that makes his last win all the more impressive, it was a deep close with a strong run. Gulfstream may not favor that type of running style, but this may be a good tightener for the Fountain of Youth or Florida Derby with that style.
Wicked Strong became the buzz horse “closing” in the Remsen, with fractions of 1:17 people don’t realize he should have closed, he was close the entire race and was out-run to mid stretch, his first race he ran into the speedy Manhatten Johnnie who freaked in the slop that day and is being pointed for the Hutchenson Stakes. Wicked Strong came back witha front-running score at 1 mile with a fast pace race shape defeating next out winner Cool Samurai. Son of Hard Spun out of Charismatic has a good combination of speedy relatives through 3 generations. Recent workouts indicate fitness after a short layoff. Very rare you see a 1 mile workout wrapped between two sharp 5 furlong workouts. Outside post should be positioned just off Cairo Prince at the 6 furlong mark. Javier Castellano is a the new jockey who gets off Coup De Grace after riding him twice and jumps on Wicked Strong for the first time. This is a serious race horse for 2014 no matter what happens on Saturday.
Almost Famous turned some heads in debut race at Churchill Downs in September with fast maiden win, came back with a no show effort in Street Sense race with no excuse, the race is not as bad as form indicated he was near the lead at turn and then dropped back quickly. Has been headstrong in all 3 of his races and has a quick stride which indicates he will be near the lead, this gets troublesome if Cairo Prince wants to go and Coup De Grace has natural speed and may want to lead this crew into the first turn. Has sprinters influence on the mare side with Forest Wildcat and Unbridled’s Songs are notorious for getting injured, so tough for me to back at relatively short odds and a front running style that will be pressed by other speed off the layoff. Rock meet Hard Place.
Financial Mogul enters as intriguing runner who may be only using this race as a prep for Fountain of Youth or going back to New York for the Gotham, as a horse who has proven he can close and win from off the pace he has recorded sharp, long workouts as well, galloping a nice 1:43 mile last week, the work pattern is nice and indicating with the one mile distance they may just give him a race and see what they have, Saturday won’t be his day unless a pace meltdown, but expect some nice races this spring and would like to see him in the Gotham and Wood as next two preps.
The Pace:
Expecting an average pace, Almost Famous is the key if he is aggressively ridden that should strong out the field for Cairo Prince and Coup De Grace to run 2nd 3rd and Financial Mogul and Wicked Strong to position themselves mid-pack and Conquest Titan at rear of field. If Coup De Grace allows his natural speed to make the first move that sets up for Cairo Prince to engage for the lead going into the stretch. Our Caravan and Conquest Titan seems up against in pace wise in this race but thats fine, this is the battle not the war. I expect both them to improve off the effort.
The Selection:
Considering the odds, Coup De Grace drew well, but may be up against it the rail and speed to his outside and possibly hot pace, Almost Famous needs the lead and how much he makes Cairo and Coup De Grace chase will ensure a better finish for Wicked Strong. Tough Call: Cairo Prince to win and Wicked Strong are my 2 at the wire. Expecting 6 horses to finish within 5 lengths, this race has some legit talent and future horses to watch. Watch the pre-race carefully and who warms up and watch the post race. The notebook should be full after this race.