The Gotham always comes up tough and with 50 points and a large purse this traditional New York feature race brings on added emphasis the last few years.
Financial Mogul enters the Gotham with a sneaky good race in the Holy Bull, he made a mid race move off the layoff and was running even with Conquest Titan going into the turn, and then flattened out late. Overall pedigree says sprint with Street Boss but the Snow Chief mare adds a little distance. Solid effort to Cairo Prince in the Nashua closing with a wide move to finish 2nd. Has run against classy sprinters and ultimately may not want to go much further than 8.5 furlongs but fits in this race class wise and has had some long stamina building workout this spring. May sit off the pace and outlast many of these horses. Broke maiden at Saratoga by 5 lengths in the slop. Thinking he improves in this race.
Uncle Sigh has started his career with three solid efforts. His duel with Samraat from the half mile pole to the finish line was a fun race to watch and he may have been at the disadvantage being on the lead and being tracked by the speedier Samraat. Held well the length of the stretch and his speed figures may not indicate his true talent. I have a feeling his speed figures are better than look on the surface with Aqueduct Inner being a surface that horses can prefer at time. Jockey switch to Corey Nakatani is an upgrade on rider talent, but Nakatani is not familiar with the Big A and has not ridden Uncle Sigh, overall this may be a wash. My only concern is he has run 3 good races in a row Gotham will need to be a 4th big effort. Big question is how back will he rate, or do they use the natural speed as a weapon.
Deceived is a horse that you have to read between the lines a little. CappingwithCandice – Candice has been a big fan him since his sweeping maiden win. His race against Samraat was a throw-out when he broke slow and Sammy ran huge that day. His last race was a dominating win but against weaker competition. Not sure how much more he can improve but if there is a solid pace the distance should not be an issue and it’s possible could close for a share. He is in shape and has experience over the track which should be a positive. Has a good juvenile foundation and has run a competitive race every time except for the Damon Runyan which was hampered by a poor start. Not the most likely to win, but could b 3rd or 4th.
In Trouble has been away from the track since September 29th. Won a Futurity Stakes that has come back kind of soft. Started his work tab on Jan. 11 after undergoing offseason surgery. Big question is will he be fit with only 6 workouts coming into the race No long works. The quality of competition he has faced is something that is hard to quantify. In the “5” horse stakes race he defeated Corfu was basically over the top at that point and is now retired. The 3rd place horse continues to lose races. The sire is interesting, Tiz Wonderful has thrown some runners and winners from first crops and was a quality horse himself with a strong 2-year-old season who was hurt early in his 3 year campaign. Distance is within reach but off the layoff against other speed hard to take to short a price. Rail post in large field could be troublesome. Not sold on this guy.
Extrasexyhippzster has a zippy name and some solid speed figures. Enters race in career form but takes a step up in class and not sure he is a distance horse. Dive in you see something I don’t. Not a fan.
Samraat was originally going to pass this race and point for the 3rd round of preps. Current form is hard to deny with a 4/4 record. Went the length of the stretch in a battle with Uncle Sigh last time. This time more horses signed on which could mean faster pace. Uncle Sigh gets a new jockey, Samraat stays with Jose Ortiz who does well on the Aqueduct inner. Like the mile workout on Feb. 22, long and slow gallops is the way to go with this horse who has obvious speed. Capable of winning, will run a good race either way, but question is can he withstand the hard pace he may have to contend with. In a field like this 3/1 is fair price, anything shorter is a tough call. Very logical but a tough loss, or bad trip loss may ultimately help him down the road.
Harpoon drew the dreaded 11 hole in a 11 horse field. Ran strange race in the Sam F. Davis when drawing the one hole, and after being dropped back going into the turn, went wide into the center of the stretch and rallied to just miss at the finish line. The race was slow and the competition was much weaker in that race. Will have to improve to win this race. Faces faster horses, more pace pressure, large field and outside post. Tough things to overcome all at once. His best effort was two back from an outside post and seems to like the outside view.
Classic Giacnroll is a proven loser at the G2 and G3 level. Enters with 3 straight losses and no excuses. The waters are deeper in this race with Harpoon, Financial Mogul. Not very likely to win, unless several horses regress.
Noble Cornerstone has alternated strong races with bizarre results. His career opener was a dominating victory against New York State breds. He closed coming off the pace in the Springboard mile, in a race that had a contested pace. His Tampa Bay race was too strange to believe at face value. Quick works in last couple of weeks. Should be a price and has a chance to compete with many of these. Would not be a total shock to see in the winner’s circle, but prefer others. Fair value 9/1.
The Pace
Uncle Sigh has shown speed in all his races, but also the ability to race behind a horse or two if necessary. On paper he has the speed and class to try to wire this race, but that may not be good for long-term development. Samraat figures to be the speed and depending on the fractions may get the soft trip on the front end. Financial Mogul is a threat to lay mid pack and make a run from off the pace. Deceived will close from behind. Depending on how you view Harpoon the outside post may help or hurt, he likes to run outside horses.
The Choice
This is a 4-horse race most likely. Uncle Sigh will probably rate this time, Financial Mogul has a shot with small improvement. Harpoon is playable, but could go either way. Samraat is a nice horse and 4/4. Samraat has done nothing wrong and sometimes in these large fields slow paces develop and Sammy may find himself on the lead. Uncle Sigh is the choice with Financial Mogul a shot at a price.