Pool 3 of the 2014 Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) is highlighted by seven new horses in the wagering options. New to pool three: Albano, Bayern, Constitution, General A Rod, Kobe’s Back, Tamarando and Wildcat Red. Dropped this time around: Bobby’s Kitten, Commissioner, Havana, Matterhorn, Midnight Hawk, Rise Up and Tonalist.
My complete pool 2 analysis can be found here! Pool 1 Update can be found here!
Again “Value” is in the eye of the beholder. The only real value is a winning ticket. Horses that are more likely to make the starting gate are still the preferred choices. Combining a few future bets is still a good hedging strategy if you plan on making race day wagers. Pool 3 is traditionally the pool that offers some nice prices in both win odds and exactas. Horses with low points and they will be 4th or 5th wagering choices in the third round of the preps are difficult horses to place wagers on in Pool 3.
Let’s take a look at the “New Shooters” for Pool 3:
Albano earned his way into pool 3 with a gut-wrenching final stride loss to Intense Holiday in the Risen Star. Allowed to set a mild pace, Albano took advantage of the rail trip and threatened to steal the Risen Star on the front end. He can compete with the best of this generation, and runs his race every time and is a gritty competitor. Figures to be longer odds than Intense Holiday in the betting. Moving forward his speed will always place him in a good position in a race. Closing out the deal at 9 furlongs or 10 furlongs is going to get tricky with this guy.
Bayern is undefeated and really untested in both his starts. His maiden win was impressive as he sat off the speed on fast fractions. Drew away to victory in fast time in his debut race. His second win was a little dressed up. His allowance win was the perfect storm. Fast, speed biased track, and all his competition managed to find trouble in the race. Gary Stevens rides both Bayern and Candy Boy and they both could be heading for a match-up in the Santa Anita Derby. Talented but did not race as a 2-year-old, so has the “Apollo” curse on him. This is a “future” type” of horse, if you believe, you can take 20/1 on him this week, rather than the 6/1 – 10/1 on Derby day. But with zero points and no stakes races, everything has to go perfect and the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby will be tough races to win with potential speed signed up for both races.
Constitution impressed the social media universe with his 2nd straight victory at Gulfstream Park. Has only 2 races and zero points. Next race will be Florida Derby and will probably be 4th choice behind Top Billing, Cairo Prince, General A Rod. This is a tough future wager similar to wagering on Commissioner in Pool 2. Who had no points, a big reputation and slow speed figures and flopped in the large field. Constitution has many of the same variables. Zero points, popular connections, 1 race to get to the Derby and will be pushing hard to finish in top 3 in Florida Derby. This is where 40 horses would be ideal for the futures. He would take some money on fans and handicappers who like this shot but a 50/1 price would be more realistic odds that the 20/1 or less he may go off at in Pool 3. A bet on him is on talent, because his speed figures and running style and no juvenile foundation all work against him historically for the Derby.
General A Rod has earned his spot among the 23 betting interests. His win at Keeneland was dominating, next he proved his speed and class at Churchill Downs. His last 2 races have been gut checks and class checks with Wildcat Red. Next race will be Florida Derby and he gets a re-match with Wildcat Red but also adds Cairo Prince and Constituion near the pace. Gets tricky from here, probably has enough points to make the race, but does he want to get in a war with Wildcat Red, Cairo Prince and Constitution all vying on the front end or close to the front end in the penultimate race before Kentucky?
Kobe’s Back is no surprise to be included in Pool 3. Kobe was included in Pool 1 so people holding tickets in that pool are already covered. His comeback stakes win was accomplished in a small field, but time was fast and Joel Rosario seems to get bet hard in the big races. Next race is Rebel Stakes. This is where it gets tricky. Honor Code Tapiture and Strong Mandate all pointing for Rebel. If Kobe is the 3rd favorite behind Honor code and Tapiture and finishes in top 3 then probably moves to Arkansas Derby. If he fails in the Rebel, he probably will be shortened up. With Strong Mandate and Tapiture having a lot of fans. Pool 4 could be the value play and although lower odds, you have a gauge if he is still pointing for the Derby and will be compensated fairly. Horses like this will be 14/1 on Derby day, taking anything less than 28/1 is tough this far out from the race.
Tamarando was listed in pool one, not listed in pool 2 and back in the saddle for Pool 3. Has the points to probably make the race and will go to the Derby off a race on the poly track. California Bred has run a lot of races and may be tough for him to “peak” on Derby day. Deep closer will need the perfect trip in Derby to get in a clean run and although he has a “closing” kick on synthetic he has yet to display that on “real” dirt. With 4 lifetime wins all on synthetic and deep closing style and possibly over-raced a little. More than likely will be 20/1 on Derby Day. Need at least 60/1 to have any value in this pool.
Wildcat Red won the all important head-bob for the 50 points in the Fountain of Youth. Florida Bred has danced all the South Florida Dances at 2 tracks and runs an “A” race every-time. Very likely to be in the starting gate with the points and owners intentions of running. But right now he is probably the 4th or 5th choice in the Florida Derby. Speed Figures are competitive with anyone in this crop. My gut instinct says the Fountain of Youth gutted him. 3 straight hard-fought fast races this time of year is tough to ask for any horse and pedigree on the sire side says speed and develop early. Deserves to be listed, but a lot of horses would have to disappoint to have him under 16/1 on Derby Day and his odds in Pool 3 might only be 18/1 or so.
Pool 2 Returnees:
Cairo Prince closed as the 2nd favorite in Pool 2 at 13/1. Nothing has changed since Pool 2 and several horses have emerged as contenders. Not running until Florida Derby and will either be 1st or 2nd choice behind Top Billing who seems to have a large fan club in Florida and nationally. Cairo has had 2 works since last race and everything seems a go. Pool 4 will close before the post of the Florida Derby and at that point you will no if Cairo is in the race or not. Either take 15/1 in pool 3 or 10/1 in Pool 4. I will wait to see what transpires. Derby favorite is likely to be 5/1 this year, so anything less than 12/1 this far out on a win ticket is not value. A few exactas may offer value.
California Chrome is waiting for the San Felipe and figures to be the 3rd or 4th choice behind Bayern, Midnight Hawk and Kristo. Has improved tremendously the last two races in terms of running style and speed figures fits with the top horses out West and several in the East strong bottom, but Lucky Pulpit as the sire gives one reason to pause for a Derby sire. Worth a flyer at 25/1 anything less is tough to take on a horse with no Derby points. Next race will be the tell, if you think he can win the San Felipe then worth betting a bad loss puts him off the Derby trail most likely.
Candy Boy closed pool 2 at 32/1 and the 2nd favorite in the betting in his last race. Expect him to be heavily supported with popular jockey Gary Stevens the pilot in the Santa Anita Derby. But if Bayern wins the San Felipe – Gary may not be the pilot which adds a lot of intrigue and drama for those betting in pool 3. Sitting out the San Felip3 and using the Santa Anita Derby as his final prep. Does not need to win the Santa Anita Derby and last race he closed strongly to back up his CashCall Futurity effort. Nice horse. Fits on pedigree, breeding and class. But don’t take too short a price.
Conquest Titan is going all in with his next race being the Tampa Bay Derby. Deep closer comes out of key Holy Bull race and new running style and win over Churchill Downs has garnered lots of fans. A 2nd place effort in the Tampa Bay Derby will probably be his last start before the Derby as they would probably go in with a fresh closer and take their chances. Trying to squeeze a third race in before the first Saturday in May may be pushing too much too soon. Nothing negative to like from a handicapping perspective.
Honor Code closed as the favorite in Pool 2 and was heavily supported in Pool 1. Back on the work tab with 2 works now and 2 more scheduled before his next race which is supposed to be the Rebel in Arkansas. The Rebel will be a long layoff. Can’t imagine him being 100% cranked for the Rebel, which means a loss could result in higher odds in Pool 4. Will be one of the top 3 choices in Pool 3 and absolutely no value on a win ticket. Minimum odds he would be on Derby Day is 4/1.
Indianapolis as of this writing has no workouts in 19 days and not sure why he is listed in pool 3. Only 2 6 furlong races and hard to imagine he will run in San Felipe. Only options I see at this point is Rebel as the 5th choice in wagering or Sunland Derby as first route and very speedy, hard, surface. Last reported issue was some kind of mucus. But no works means no wagers on my end. Lacks foundation and the only real reason you play a horse like this is because you’re a fan of the sire or the trainer.
Intense Holiday closed pool 2 at 69/1 and is listed at 15/1 in pool 3 after big victory at the Fairgrounds which required a deep stretch close at 5/1 odds. Been knocking on the door with the top horses in this class. Louisiana Derby is the next race, but shipped once to Fairgrounds, now back in Florida, will have to ship a 2nd time and then ship to Kentucky. Thats a lot of Air Miles.
Kristo closed pool 2 at high odds and will be similar odds in pool 3. Son of Distorted Humor will be among the top 3 choices in the San Felipe and has worked sharply in recent weeks, including a powerful 6 furlong move Monday. The “Truth” Joel Rosario is scheduled to ride in San Felipe. When last seen in early January lost to Midnight Hawk who came back to lose his next race. His running style is on the lead or close to the lead, lightly race, still could make a jump forward and his odds will be higher than several east coast horses who have much rougher path to get Derby points. About 20 horses are vying for points out East and only about 9 contenders are vying for points out West.
Noble Moon has resumed training after missing some time with a slight setback. One work back on tab, need to see a second soon before I would dive back in. Was listed in both pools so far and finished with high odds both time. Pointing to the Wood, but will probably be the 5th or 6th choice in that race. All the eggs are in the Wood Memorial basket. A top 3 finish and he could train well and go to Kentucky, an out of the money finish and he is off the Derby Trail. The talent is there, but already has had setbacks. The Preakness would really be his ideal spot. Wait 3 weeks is the best strategy for Noble Moon, unless he drifts north of 70/1.
Samraat is undefeated and pointing to the Gotham. With New Yorker’s shout out of the pools in Round 2 and several East Coast Tracks cancelled because of weather, I expect quite a few people get Down on Sammy this weekend. Fast, has good foundation of races, will be favored in Gotham. Tough call on a good horse who I like personally, but I can have no Emotion in the Futures. The odds are stacked against him 25/1 he is a buy, anything less is an underlay.
Shared Belief has done nothing in 3 weeks. I’m not sure if that is good or bad. It’s good in that he has not re-injured himself. Bad in that he has no official reports of workouts. Been shipped back to Golden Gate to train on Poly and rumors have circulated that he will prep once or twice on Poly with the Derby being his first start on Dirt. Make no mistake about it he was the Juvenile Champion and in December there was not a horse in the country that could carry his Jock Strap. But that was then and Business is Business. Will be bet down again and his odds of making the race are longer than he will be when the pools close on Saturday. Buyer Beware. Caveat Emptor!
Strong Mandate made a dubious re-appearance in the Southwest Stakes. Losing by 4 lengths to Tapiture and appeared to be drunk down the stretch, switching leads and getting noticeably leg-weary after a tough trip. He finished pool 2 at 17/1 and figures to go higher in pool 3. Now is the time to bet him if you seriously think he can win. Pedigree and breeding is still there and Juvenile form. Next race is the Rebel, Followed by the Arkansas Derby.
Tapiture was the blockbuster winner of the Pool 2 value. He closed at 38/1 that day and won the Southwest by 4 lengths. His speed figure improved by 15 points on every scale and has a strong base of workout before that race. Next race is Rebel followed by Arkansas Derby is the plan as of now. I have a feeling if he wins the Rebel he might train up to the Derby. Winning all 3 preps before the Derby is tough and then winning the Derby it’s been a few years since this has been done. Nice horse. But he will be pounded hard in Pool 3, he will finish among the top 3 favorites come Saturday afternoon.
Top Billing received a tremendous amount of support in Pool 2 and was hammered down to 4/5 in the Fountain of Youth before finishing 3rd. Next race is possibly the Florida Derby but depending on how well Honor Code does in Arkansas he could go to the Wood. Right on the border with Derby points and only one race to really improve. Solid Closer, great pedigree, but on Derby Day there will be 100,000 people not caring at all about any of that. Figures to be 10/1 on Derby Day unless he wins the Florida Derby. Will be underlay in the wagering for what he will go off at in Pool 4 or Derby Day.
Uncle Sigh closed at over 70/1 in Pool 2 and has done nothing wrong, if he runs a bang-up race in the Gotham he will be among the top horses in this class. Not a big fan base so expect close to 50/1 again for this intriguing Gotham runner.
Vicar’s In Trouble was a longshot in Pool 2 and his 3rd place effort in the Risen Star will ensure long odds in Pool 3. Gritty competitor has run solid races in all 4 career starts. Figures to be among the top 3 favorites in the Louisana Derby so value play could be in Pool 3 at over 40/1. If you truly believe. Has some points and will probably point for the race no matter what the result in the Louisiana Derby. skip the win money and play some exactas which will all pay over $600.
Field is morning line of 6/1 and last year closed at 3/1 in this pool. 4/1 is probably fair odds and at that price may be worth a play. More than likely you will have 6 to 7 horses in the Derby from this pool. More than likely you will not have any of the top 4 favorites. At this time barring injuries. Top Billing, Honor Code, Candy Boy, Strong Mandate and Tapiture seem to be capturing the public’s attention.