Future Pool #1 an update on the “Bet of the Decade”

Published by on January 28, 2014

This past fall Churchill Downs offered a November Futures Pool for Kentucky Derby starved fans.  The format is similar to recent years with the first pool being offered in February.  The format did not change and offering 23 wagering options in November in the current era of lightly raced horses favored the field.  With the closing odds of 4/5, noted philosopher and handicapper Phil @insidethenumbers immediately declared it the “Bet of the Decade”


Since we are a little over a week away let’s check in on the Field of 23!

  1. Almost Famous:  Ran 4th in Holy Bull, pressing the pace off the layoff.  Figures to be listed in pool 2.
  2. Bobby’s Kitten: on the work tab, still planning turf, poly route to the Derby.  Strong Juvenile form I expect him to be listed in pool 2.
  3. Bond Holder on a regular work pattern, pointing to Risen Star.  Expect him in pool 2.
  4. Cairo Prince:  Finished Pool 1 with 26/1 odds. Won Holy Bull.  With be among 23 listed and one of the top 5 favorites in pool 2
  5. Cleburne: on the work tab, no specific race being pointed for.  Sketchy form, has done nothing to merit being on pool 2.
  6. Commissioner:  Won allowance race over Top Billing – pointing for Fountain of Youth.  Will be in pool 2 and be one of the 10 favorites.
  7. Coup de Grace:  Taken off the trail after disappointing effort in the Holy Bull.  Will not be listed in pool 2.
  8. Financial Mogul:  Rallied for 6th place in the Holy Bull, probably next race is Gotham.  Might be listed in pool 2.  Closed pool 1 at 225/1.
  9. Havana:  No workouts as of Jan. 26th.  Not Listed in Courier Journal top 10 poll.  Pointing for Swale.  Should not be listed in pool 2.
  10. Honor Code:  No works in 9 days as on Jan. 26th.  Allegedly pointing for Fountain of Youth.  Clock is ticking.  unless taken off the trail will be listed in pool 2.
  11. In Trouble:  Back on work tab, but still behind schedule.  Planning 2 start campaign.  I don’t anticipate him being listed in pool 2.
  12. Kobe’s Back:  Was checked in the Cashcall, pointing to San Vincente, tough to predict if will be in pool 2, probably a sprinter.  Working on cue, but seems to have distance limitations.
  13. Mexikoma:  Working in Florida, pointing at Fountain of Youth.  Closed pool 1 with odds of 40/1 will probably be similar odds or higher in pool 2.
  14. Misconnect:  Not sure why he was listed in Pool 1, No works as of Jan 26h.  Stick a fork in him he will not be listed in pool 2.
  15. New Year’s Day – did not make it to New Year’s Day.  Retired.  Happy New Year – people who bet him in pool 1.
  16. Noble Moon:  On the couch in New York.  Gotham is next possible start in early march and no works of late.  Unless he works soon, should not be listed in pool 2.
  17. Pablo Del Monte:  Cashed out and took the money!  Sold part ownership and disappointed out west on turf and then at Gulfstream.  Should not be listed in pool 2.  I think he should be re-named No Mas!
  18. Ride On Curlin:  Won Allowance race at Oaklawn Park, Southwest Stakes next.  Will be in pool 2.  Closed pool 1 at 57/1.
  19. Rise Up:  Pointing for Risen Star.  But only 1 published work on Jan. 25th.  Timing will be tight.  Will be listed in pool 2.
  20. Shared Belief:  Juvenile Champ will be listed in pool 2 unless he is taken off the trail, we will know by next Monday.  Closed pool 1 at 32/1.
  21. Strong Mandate:  Training at Oaklawn Park.  Southwest Stakes next for this son of Tiznow who should develop at 3.  Will be listed in pool 2.
  22. Tamarando:  Closed in Cal Cup to finish 2nd.  Probably not going to be listed in Pool 2.  Closed Pool 1 at 42/1.
  23. Tap It Rich:  Head Case, currently in therapy with Arnold from Different Strokes, and several of the Partridge Family cast members.  5/1 odds he is the Lead pony for the Kentucky Derby.  No works since Jan. 18th.

So there it is:  23 horses:

By my count on January 27th:  Horses likely to make pool 2:

Almost Famous        Bobby’s Kitten        Bond Holder

Cairo Prince              Financial Mogul      Honor Code

Mexicoma                  Ride on Curlin         Shared Belief

Rise Up                       Strong Mandate

New Shooters:  Possibles for Pool 2:

Hartford, Constitution, Cool Samurai, Uncle Sigh, Tonalist, Midnight Hawk, Conquest Titan, Indianapolis, Vicar’s In Trouble, Gold Hawk, Kristo, Noble Cornerstone, Candy Boy, Cherubim, Bourbanize, Tapiture, Intense Holiday.