Come on come all for the Fountain of Youth. A full field of 13 horses have cast their lot for the Fountain of Youth stakes at Gulfstream Park. Some horses have been lining this up for 2 months, others have been planning for 5 days, but either way a solid mixture of speed, closers and some lively pedigrees make this an interesting race to wager on.
Commissioner draws the rail in a 13 horse field, which could cause trouble if he doesn’t get a clean start. Interesting development pattern, it’s rare to see a horse start his career with 3 route races and two of them 9 furlongs. His speed numbers have been progressing and in 4th lifetime race may be able to get the “jump” needed to compete with this field. Pedigree is loud and proud with distance and class with A. P. Indy as the sire and a classy favorite of mine – Touch Gold as the Broodmare sire. Has been off since January 3rd when he defeated Top Billing in a salty allowance field. Odds will be low on a horse with moderate speed, lots of class and tricky post position. Very playable but not a “key” horse upside may come in Florida Derby. Needs to run faster for me to really engage in him as a top 10 contender. Been highly regarded since winning at Saratoga and has received support at the windows in Kentucky Derby Futures. Worth nothing he was 6.8 to 1 in allowance race in 7 horse field and figures to be 5/1 or less in 13 horse field and tougher company which is just not good wagering value. Those who truly believe may get paid down the road.
We Miss Artie is the latest Ken Ramsey production. This horse is a Canadian Bred purchased for 90K at the Keeneland September sale in 2012. Has already paid the bills and then some with over 300K in earnings. Ramsey has Bobby’s Kitten waiting in the wings, Vicar’s in Trouble in the Bayou and now sends Artie to the dirt, looking for more derby points and a possible three headed monster in Louisville. Best victory was in the Keeneland Futurity which was a washout from a literal and handicapping perspective. That day there was a monsoon at Keeneland and it was pouring rain during the race very heavy and half the field gave up. To Artie’s credit he worked a good trip and put on the rain slickers and picked up the purse. His Breeder’s Cup Juvenile is better than looked, chased a fast pace and made a mid race move going into the turn, but Havana and Strong Mandate were slugging it out on the front end and not everyone noticed the wide move Artie was making while running wide, flattened out late but track was changing in middle of the card with lots of water being added to the track. Last race was on turf and many times turf to dirt can be good for one race. Recent race is strong and works are on a steady pattern. May get overlooked has a shot at a price and connections are solid and Jersey Joe Bravo takes the mount. Solid horse who has already ran in full fields with 13 and 12 horses.
Medal Count is another making the surface switch from turf to dirt. Has been keeping good company running in a G3 turf race and Juvenile effort on the West Coast was not his true ability finishing 11 of 13 by 17 lengths. That race was after shipping and running a big race in the Bourbon. His maiden victory was flashy and he won by 6 lengths but that was at Ellis Park so the competition may have been responsible for that lopsided score. Pedigree says dirt with Dynaformer and Unbridled Song as the Broodmare Sire. Has a prep win on the turf in 2014. So is fresh, fit and ready to run a good race, but the weeds are tall in this race.
Wildcat Red is the yearly Florida Bred who has danced all the dances and comes into this race sharp. His most recent win was a dominating 7 furlongs in the Hutcheson, which may have sharpened the speed and toughened him up on the stretch-out. Every few years the Florida Breds hold their own and so far WildCat has shown tenacity in the Gulfstream Park Derby losing by a head to General A Rod and winning his last race. Form is consistent 5 races and all finishes in the top 2. Best asset is speed and with a good post position, I imagine he may be on the engine in this race and see how far he can take them. By getting out and establishing position he can pull anyone into a fast pace, and other horses may be trying to make sure Commissioner is trapped at the rail. He has a sprint pedigree, but fits in this race, hard to single, but maybe even harder to completely toss on your tickets.
General A Rod has an interesting pedigree. Mare was Dynamite Eyes who only ran 9 times with one win at Woodbine. Second mare is Buckeye Search who was a solid distaff horse running 5th in the Kentucky Oaks, ran in the Test Stakes and several other important races. Speed comes from the sire in Roman Ruler who won the Haskell Stakes. Stamina is from the female side. Ran on January 1 and has pointed for this race for over a month with a solid workout pattern. Keeneland debut was a nice effort visually drawing away after coming off the pace. Made huge move in Conquest Titan race before surrendering late. Looks like he can sit in top half of field and make a run entering the stretch. Speed figures are solid and can improve. Nothing not to like and getting a lot less hype than the two big favorites.
Casiguapo comes in with a chip and chair, but he may go out with just the chair. His prep race was non-existent and i’m not sure what he got out of that sprint race, never challenging at any point. His Delta race was solid but he was a distant 2nd to Rise Up after prompting a quick pace but short stretch. Champagne was probably his best race running with Havana, Ride on Curlin and Honor Code. Pedigree is very light with Sightseeing and Buddha as the headliners. Buddha flopped as a sire huge. Sightseeing has had limited foals. Not sure he wants a distance and not sure if he has enough speed to contest the pace. Best race was wire to wire at Calder. Trying to set a solid pace may be his best chance, because I’m not sure he can come off the pace in this race and out-finish the top closers.
C. Zee was a surprising entrant in this race. One win in 4 starts and only win was back in December from just off the pace. Stanley Gold does a nice job with Florida Breds. Not sure this is the spot to go for the money, might have been interesting in the Tampa Bay Derby.
Almost Famous is a tough nut to crack. His debut race drew raves at Churchill Downs and the speed figure boys came back with a big number in that win. Bet down hard in the Street Sense he flopped on the turn and finished 4th by 10 lengths. The trainer got aggressive and wheeled him back on 10 days rest and he dominated an allowance by 6 lengths. His Holy Bull race was a solid comeback race, especially facing a stronger field. He se the pace and was pressured early by Coup De Grace at the rail and then middle move from Mr. Speaker. When he put those two away he was never able to actually clear the field and settle. Cairo Prince came up and went by him so fast he never had a chance. I’m still convinced the rail was not the place to be on the Holy Bull Card and several off the pace types did well while running wide. Almost Famous faces more horses, but possibly less speed. Sprint pedigree with the mare side. I expect him to run a solid race and if able to clear the field and relax is capable of taking this field a long ways. Not sure he wants to run side by side and really have to battle for the lead. Playable at 7/1 or higher.
Best Plan Yet is another of the Florida Breds. Last two efforts give no indication that he belongs in the Fountain of Youth. Earned his money by developing early, but lately the class has caught up to him. But again they don’t card NW of 3 this time of the year, so it’s either enter open stakes races or not race for 3 months.
Our Caravan impressed with a nice off the pace Maiden win in December closing into a moderate pace while running in the center of the track. Last race went straight in with the sharks in the Holy Bull, ran evenly facing winners for the first time. True talent level is unknown, visually and pedigree wise think he could be a nice horse, runs like a router who will run all day, but may not have enough speed to stay close to the pace and out sprint the closing horses. Corey Lanerie stays on for the 3rd straight race, has two recent works including a sharp 5 furlong work on Feb. 10th. Has talent – upside may be 3rd or 4th place.
Hesinfront ran an even 4th in the allowance race with Top Billing and Surfing USA, chased a solid pace that day before weakening in the stretch, but Top Billing was not going to get beat that day and packed it in late. Last race was first race on traditional dirt and pedigree says Turf top and bottom side. Distance should not be an issue, but another not on preferred surface and running style does not fit the race flow.
Top Billing is the likely favorite based on many people being impressed with his sweeping move in the last race from last two first. Pedigree pundits love the breeding. Champion Curlin is on top who won multiple races at 10 furlongs and several strong races at 9 furlongs. A. P. Indy adds stamina to the mare side and the mare Parade Queen was a solid runner. Joel Rosario rides for the 3rd straight race and has put him in good position the last two with sweeping wide runs. His maiden race was solid when he ran between horses and exploded in the stretch at Laurel Park. Moves up in class Saturday, facing a large field for the first time and will have to stay closer to faster fractions as he has shown absolutely no early speed in the last 3 races, trailing the field early and making no effort to really save ground. Against winners and facing faster fractions he will have to stay closer to the field. Runs with his head low and really get competitive when he turns on the speed, he may be a one run horse – has yet to start, get steadied and then re-rally at any point. Needs to show more speed, or more versatility in this race – even if it means losing. Lots of potential, but a short price and the 12 whole are not reasons to dive in without reserving a small amount of judgement. Still like the potential in this horse and is one of the few horses capable of being a Derby and Belmont player, but still needs to show a little more versatility and face an upgrade in horses before I go all in next couple of races.
East Hall has a strong juvenile foundation with 8 starts and will be making his 3rd start in 2014. Last race closed at Ocala which is a poly surface and goes back to dirt where he has run some good races against General A Rod and Wildcat Red. The post position did him no favors and winning from the 13 hole is not very common at Gulfstream. But not very many races have 13 horses in them! On his best day the distance is right and he fits class wise but tough to back in this spot, with this post position. One to watch and play in future races where he may have some hidden form.
The Pace:
Almost Famous looks like the speed of the race and an aggressive ride to secure early position will give him his best chance to win the race. Wildcat Red is capable of going for the lead and may be best pressing. General A Rod and Commissioner will be sitting in that 2nd group and get first run at the leaders. Top Billing is the closer, will need to make his move going into the turn like he did the last two races rather, needs a well timed ride to get in position as his stamina should take him home. We Miss Artie fits on class and should get a good trip if good enough. Post Positions did the most damage to Commissioner, Top Billing and East Hall.
The Pick:
At low odds and 12th post position, I don’t believe Top Billing is a good wager. Commissioner at the rail and low odds may not be the ideal wager as well. Based on trip and price I’m going with We Miss Artie who has run several competitive races and fits with these horses. I think Almost Famous is capable of a strong race if aggressively ridden on the front end. General A Rod is very usable. Officially I’m leaning We Miss Artie, Almost Famous, General A Rod. Top Billing is usable in Pick 3’s and Pick 4’s but price will be low. Commissioner can beat me with slow speed ratings and low odds.