A contentious field of 8 meets in the Fountain of Youth. Division Leaders Frosted and Upstart are joined by exciting newcomers Itsaknockout and Gorgeous Bird.
The Skinny:
Juan and Bina had a tough trip in the Holy Bull and is outclassed in this spot. Nice Florida Bred will run with the pack, but when the race gets serious expect him to start backing up quickly.
Bluegrass Singer is fit and has peaked, now he has to face 2-4 horses who simply have more talent. His best weapon was speed but at this distance and class level that trick is over. He will set the pace and is a key to the race in who ultimately wins but finding it hard to justify a top 2 finish.
Upstart dominated the Holy Bull and earned a flashy Beyer speed figure in that race. Has worked solid since that race. Has never fired a bad race in his career and still has some upside. Has speed to press for the lead, but can also rate off the pace. Talented colt will be in the mix turning for home. Fit, Fast and distance all fit this deserving favorite.
Frosted adds blinkers and this horse may need them. As a group the Tapits are a little crazy and Frosted as hinted at ability in several of his races. In the Holy Bull he received the inside trip and then when floated out for the drive did not respond when the pace quickened. Recent workouts have shown more speed and feel he is on the engine or close to the lead in this race. Formidable. Look for more speed and try to get the jump on Upstart.
Gorgeous Bird is an exciting prospect who dominated an allowance race in last outing. Hinted at major ability when checked and switching paths at Churchill Downs. Pedigree indicates distance and class rise will not be a problem. Trainer is slowly turning the screws and figures to be in with a shot. Like the 2 workouts 5 days apart last week. Major player and a top 3 finish sets him up perfect for final prep. He will be rolling late. This is the one guy capable of busting out with a monster performance.
Itsaknockout is another who steps up in class, but the pedigree is for 9-10 furongs and the class, turn of foot and natural speed shows he will be a tough beat in this race. Sharp workouts and recent form and 2 for 2 over the track. Slow fractions won’t hurt him but not sure he has the “kick” that Upstart has and has the experience that Frosted has. Was hard ridden to get into stride the last 2 races. Not sure he can quicken when the pace does.
Frammento disappointed as a No-Show in the Holy Bull, running in the back of the pack and never picking it up. Not quick enough, but recent works have been sharp and expect an improved effort in this race. Overall needs to improve dramatically to compete with the big 4 in the is race. Hard to pick, but better than last race indicates.
Danny Boy has run 4 lifetime races and 3 of them on the turf. His running style is that of a closer and pedigree says dirt should be his preferred distance. Off the layoff and with outside post this race seems like the obvious prep.
Fair Odds:
Upstart 7/5
Frosted 3/1
Gorgeous Bird 6/1
The Choice:
Frosted gets blinkers and may get first jump on Upstart in a race like this. The worry is that they get involved in an extended duel and set it up for Gorgeous Bird. Frosted is the play with a chance at a slight upset.