The showdown in Florida between Nyquist and Moyhamen highlights this year’s Florida Derby. Bragging rights will be on the line as well as the most likely post-time favorite for the Kentucky Derby. A few late minute additions swelled the entry box. I expect a few scratches on Saturday.
2016 Florida Derby Field
Sawyers Mickey is still a maiden after 7 lifetime starts. He is stepping up in class. He is entered because the owner likes running horses in races they can’t win. No chance to finish in top 3.
Fellowship has closed twice behind Moyhamen for 3rd place finishes. Most likely to sit back and make a run going into the turn, but has given no indications that he wants 9 furlongs or Grade 1 quality as a win contender.
Majesto was a maiden winner in his most recent start and has hinted at talent in all his starts. This colt can also run on the front end and come from behind. Could be peaking at the right time and is worth using in exacta and trifecta tickets.
Nyquist ships in from California with one 7 furlong race in the past 6 months. Most likely to be on the lead but can rate if the pace gets too fast. Looms large on the turn and definitely has the speed and class to win this battle. Still a big ask to win a 9 furlong race off 1 sprint prep and ship across the country on a new surface.
Copingaway has run 14 times and has 1 win. He has lost 11 straight races. He is a complete clown show entered in this race.
Chovanes won his maiden in last race. Steps up in class and would not be favored in a 40 claiming race. So the fact he is taking on Grade 1 company is insane.
Takeitottheedge dominated a Maiden Special Weight race in a fast time. Was bet hard in that race and posted a nice gallop out. This is a solid horse who is being thrown to the wolves. Hopefully he can come back and run some nice races this summer. Dale Romans should go to Japan. They have lots of 16 horses fields with 8 horses with no shot. Good practice for Dale.
Fashionable Freddy entered for Nicholas P Zito. Ran evenly against Azar and Battery who are at least stakes horses. Cherry Wine defeated him by 11 lengths. Not improving and 4th place is probably best case scenario.
Moyhamen is unbeaten and basically untested while showing a variety of running styles in his stakes races. He has split horses, won on the front end. Rallied from behind and then cruised to victory in the Holy Bull. Works have been right on schedule and this has been the plan all along. He is faster and a better horse than Nyquist.
Isofass runs with an even running style and has obscure breeding. has a shot to run along for 4th or 5th place at best.
The Selection:
The match-up is Moyhamen vs Nyquist. Moyhamen enters more fit, faster and better running style. He has defeated better horses at a variety of distances. Good horses don’t lose races like this. Nyquist is solid, enters fresh, most likely will lead into the stretch. Moyhamen remains undefeated and Nyquist fans bring out the excuses after this race.