The Florida Derby is the start of the “170” point races with 100 points going to the winner. This race is top-heavy with Upstart the most likely favorite. Materiality is the “New Shooter” and enters ready to try the heavyweights.
The Skinny:
Ami’s Flatter has improved in the last 2 starts, but not enough to make a dent in the top horses in this race. Should get the trip. Has tactical speed. Was clearly 2nd best in Tampa Bay Derby and comes back rather quickly. Gets the top jock which will probably take away any value. Really can’t see him winning. 3rd place seems like ceiling in this race.
Jack Tripp has some talent and, used to have some tactical speed. But last 2 races were big disappointments. Trainer has been known to turn horses around quickly. Still seems a little slow and outclassed in this spot. Can’t endorse. 30/1
Indianaughty has run on turf and run on synthetic and now goes to the dirt. Have no real idea what his class level is but figures to be prominently place in this spot and should hang around for quite a while with the anticipated soft pace. When the running starts not sure he can quicken with the best in this race. Has a punchers chance so not a complete toss.
Itsaknockout has progressed quickly. A solid maiden win, followed by an allowance win with a burst of speed on the turn. The Lemon Drop Kid breeding should start to kick in as the distances go longer and as he gets older. I’m not convinced he likes the Gulfstream surface and think he may actually get better once he gets off this racetrack. His best race is getting a full field and strong pace, which he won’t get in this spot. Look for him to run well and improve in Louisville. Still like the upside in this horse once he gets away from Gulfstream.
Quimet entered as a longshot lost an overnight stakes race by 16 lengths. Ran 2nd to Madefromlucky. Another entered to “fill” the field. Not impossible, but on paper looks 5-7 lengths behind the top 3.
My Point Exactly off the long layoff in a Grade 1 is not the path to immediate success. Seems like he was entered to fill out the field. No races since September. Best form was on turf. Has 7 works leading into this race. First work back officially was on Feb. 12th and racing 9 furlongs in a short time. Has some speed in blowout maiden win. Not really sure they entered to win. Longshot.
Materiality looms the speed of the speed and is being rushed into a Grade 1 off of 3 weeks rest which is not his trainers strong point. Last race has an over-inflated Beyer speed figure. Should control the pace. But 9 furlongs is going to be testing his distance limitations and has never faced the heat of a horse like Upstart or Itsaknockout before. Will be overbet. Top 3 contender but enters sharp and the fractions should be soft to most likely have him as the leader entering the stretch.
Dekabrist is a complete clown show 100/1 odds
Upstart enters at the top of his game. His Holy Bull win was explosive and his Fountain of Youth win was relentless on a tiring track chasing fast fractions on a slow surface. He bumped with Itsaknockout down the stretch but was clearly the better horse. Has never run a bad race and 9 furlongs should hit him perfect. Recent works are solid and throw out the last race speed figure. This is one of the fastest, hardest hitting contenders in this crop. Capable of going to the lead or coming off the pace in this spot should track Materiality for 6 furlongs and make his moving going into the stretch.
Fair Line:
Upstart 7/5
Itsaknockout 3/1
Materiality 4/1
The Choice:
Upstart is the top dog in this field and most likely winner. Should sit behind the speed and move the lead at any time his jockey commands in this race. Key will be to finish and not drain the tank.