The pace picks up on the Derby Trail with the first of the 100 point races down at Gulfstream Park. A smaller but highly competitive field has gathered. The winner of this race could very well be the Kentucky Derby favorite come the first Saturday in May. With 24 different winners of preps in 25 races more points may be need to make the Churchill starting gate. A 3rd place finish may not get you into the dance. Pace will be the key to this race. Lots of speed signed on – but they may all get caught looking at each other – who will commit first?
Cairo Prince has moved to the top of the rankings in recent weeks in both the NTRA 3 year old poll and the Courier Journal Media Poll. Cairo Prince’s stock has risen while taking a big break after dominating the Holy Bull Stakes back in January. What you see is what you get. He’s 3 for 4 lifetime with his only loss in the Remsen in which he carried higher weight and ran wider than Honor Code that day. The trainer has been very vocal about that ride being questionable down the stretch. The Remsen was the best thing Cairo could have done. It was a 9 furlong race that was really a 3 furlong workout. The 1:17 fractions allowed them to get the development of a 9 furlong race without the pain of a hard race. Recent workouts have been right on cue every 7 days. Race favorite gets tested hard today. Cairo Prince has been a pace presser, and has made his move going into the turn in every one of his races. Has the speed to stay close and the speed to take the lead at any time he wants it. All systems are go if he is indeed a top contender. Pedigree and running style say 9 furlongs a distance he should compete at. Time to find out where Molly put the peaches. Recent photos show a shiny coat:
KY Derby contender CAIRO PRINCE, Rob Massey up, working this morning at Palm Meadows. #KyDerby @KPMRacingStable pic.twitter.com/oaB1JbFw5z
— Barbara Livingston (@DRFLivingston) March 22, 2014
Wildcat Red is a bulldog who doesn’t quit. Parlayed a sprint stakes win into a hard fought victory in the Fountain of Youth out-bobbing General A Rod through the length of the stretch. Pedigree gets shaky at 9 furlongs, but new jock and speed puts him in any race. Has done nothing wrong and will take plenty of beating turning for home. Key question will be – does he go for the lead and use his natural speed to establish position, or does he lay behind Constitution and see if he can press and come from behind? He already has enough Derby points so maybe a change of styles may be the plan. This is a 1 million dollar purse and he is on his home track in his elements. Ideally he puts these guys away when making his move because General A Rod likes a dog fights and Cairo has strong form. Has battled 3 tough races in a row and should be fit. Main concern is – he has peaked and doesn’t have much room for improvement. Best race puts him close with a 1/16th of a mile to run and thats all you can ask if you are a Wildcat Red fan.
East Hall has been competitive with many of South Florida’s best, but has not really shown he can win races against the top competition. Was entered in the Tampa Bay Derby on a quick turn-around following a closing finish in the Fountain of Youth. Back on preferred surface and running style fits if there is a complete pace meltdown. Just don’t believe he is good enough to defeat all 4 of the top guns unless there is a pace duel of EPIC proportions.
General A Rod has mixed it up with Wildcat Red for 3 straight races and has come back loaded for bear in each one of them. Son of Roman Ruler visually looks the role of a leggy router and last race was forced to show speed to stay with Wildcat Red. His move in the Gulfstream Park Derby was a wide move and wore down the competition with a determined stretch run. Talent has been on display in all his races. Ultimately he is a presser, but again has enough speed to take the lead if pace is slow. Loves a dog fight. Tricky read, he ultimately can compete with these horses with his speed, but if he moves too soon into the pace he may get caught with his hand in the cookie jar and get out-finished late. The General is always bet hard in every race, so price may be tough on this guy as well. A top 3 finish puts him as one of the top 10 contenders in Kentucky.
Constitution enters off a big win in a key allowance race. Son of Tapit broke slow and has been headstrong in both his wins. Big question for him is can he rate behind the speed of Wildcat Red, or does he go to the lead and try to set the tempo while jumping up in class. Galloped a mile a couple of weeks back and came back with a maintenance breeze last week of four furlongs. Big jump in class and needs a top 2 finish to probably make the Derby field. Ultimate question is the price, and running style. Have a feeling he is on the lead. If he slows down the fractions could be tough, but not enough speed to steal the race. Running 9 furlongs in only 3rd career start is a tough call. Tough to single/hard to ignore. May be 4th favorite on the board. Not on my tickets. Too much too soon, has to play catch up to some solid horses.
Allstar was a last minute addition to the Florida field with some hustling from track management trying to get an additional horse or field to commit. Calder has been the scene of both career victories. Nice claim for 25K. Has a closer running style and pedigree says 9 furlongs with Flower Alley and Victory Gallop among the marquee names. Has to improve by 7 lengths to compete in this race.
Spot was a private purchase and switched to the Nicholas P Zito barn with a big win in the Swale Stakes. On paper he has never met these kind of horses and definitely goes up in class on the stretchout. In career form and running style may be a positive with the speed signed on in the race. More than likely the pace will be moderate and his stretch run will be negated. Believers like the big victory and stretching out. Question marks on class and 9 furlongs. Not sold on his prospects to compete with Florida’s best.
Matador tries the big boys and may not like the result. In his element Matador is a Grade 2 or Grade 3 horse at 8 to 8.5 furlongs. His races at Tampa are pretty much his current form. Steps up in class with not enough speed to hang on the front end and not enough closing punch. Ole!
The Pace will be key in this race. Although several of these horses have running lines that put them on the engine. Most have been forced into pace setting or pace pressing roles due to track bias and composition of the field. Constitution has shown a running style that can’t be rated and I expect him to set the pace and it may be moderate. Wildcat Red makes 2nd move. Cairo needs to put these guys away when he makes his move.
The Choice:
Cairo Prince is my choice, like the cruising speed, the killer crossover move on the turn, and the the way he gets aggressive when going for the lead. If Cairo Prince is a top true contender, he wins this race. A loss puts a serious dent in his chances to stretch out and move to a new surface and get back on the winning track. The top five contenders are all worthy. Would not be surprised to see General A Rod win as he runs a solid race every time.