Golden Gate’s road to the Derby has been reduced to a synthetic preamble to the Bluegrass Stakes. Since going to the synthetic surface, few runners have impacted the Triple Crown Trail. Several horses have had long careers after running in this race. Long gone are the days of Casual Lies!
Dance With Fate has prepared a Synthetic Two-Step to the Derby. Golden Gate on Saturday, then the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland to try and qualify for the run for the roses. Dance with Fate has shown enough ability at Santa Anita to hint that he may not be an exclusive turf/synthetic runner. A dominating win at Delmar on the front end was impressive on August 11th at 6.5 furlongs. His 2nd place effort to Bond Holder in the Front Runner stakes was a solid effort as he was close to the pace and took the lead early before getting passed down the lane. The likely favorite, has run well on synthetic, has class and his prepe on January 24th on the turf was perfect, a chance to get fit and really only had to sprint for 3 furlongs in overmatched field. Has the class and juvenile foundation. The price will be low, but figures to run his race.
Enterprising comes off a 1/2 length defeat to Exit Stage Left who was 3/3 before getting injured in a workout last weekend. Exit Stage Left was heavily favored in the last race. Gary Stevens jumps back on Tom Proctor and that team is winning at a powerful rate. Enterprising has some “dirt” influences in Elusive Quality and A. P. Indy, but has been relegated to turf and synthetic since a 7th place finish back in October at 5.5 furlongs. Enterprising did have the perfect trip last time, and does look more like a sprinter, so the cautious campaign has been by design. Expect him to run his race and compete at every call. Pace of the race could determine how well he closes in this race. Best position may be to track I’ll Wrap It Up.
I’ll Wrap It Up is from the same connections as I’ll Have Another and He’s Had Enough. If you enjoyed those fun times then you’ll enjoy I’ll Wrap it Up who enters after running 4th in the Dance With Fate Turf race. I’ll Wrap it Up showed speed for a half time in the Sham and has run 7 times with 1 win. I don’t see any improvement. Not any real decline. It is possible he improves going back to polly. Figures to set the pace and has been getting out-finished on turf, not likely but possible if he is able to set fractions of 1:15 and establish a length or 2 lead.
Tamarando is the class of the field with over $455,000 dollars in earnings, including a G1 3rd place finish to Shared Belief and Candy Boy in the Cash Call Futurity. Tamarando is also a deep closer who lost in the Cal Cup Derby when California Chrome freaked on the front end and drew off to victory. Deep closers are always pace dependent. The Golden Gate track profile favors closers and Tamarando fits on class and recency but deep closing style is always a factor in stakes races with no pace to run at. Classiest horse in the race, but coming back on short rest in a race he was not originally pointing for. Tough to take a short price on horse who was not originally intending to run. Golden Gate synthetic is more “tiring” than Hollywood, so while similar, this surface in this race has favored “turf” bred runners the past few years.
Craftsman is an Ireland bred with some classy running lines. Running 5th on the turf on December 28th losing as the favorite to Enterprising in a small field with not a lot of pace. Previously Crafsman won a minor G3 stakes in Ireland and finished 3rd in a listed stakes race. Pedigree says Turf and sprinting. Workouts in January have been solid pattern, with 3 works in January and the latest workout 4F in 47 and 4 on Feb. 2nd. With 5 races and only one race in the US. This horse may drift up in price and Simon Callaghan is capable with many turf horses. Looks live at a price. Fits the profile of recent winners moving from turf to poly.
Infosec is the local horse from Northern California who ran the prep race the Cal Derby, finishing 3rd to Exit Stage Left and Enterprising. New horses add depth to the pool and running style is not conducive to winning this race. He runs too close to the pace to inherit the lead and does not have enough kick to outlast the closers like Dance with Fate and Tamarando.
Icy Ride was a surprise entrant. Still a maiden after four starts with 3 (4th) place finishes. He has faced a couple of nice horses in Hoppertunity, Cool Samurai and Indianapolis. Some Candy Rides do prefer the Golden Gate Racing surace. Shared Belief and Chocolate Candy were two excelled over the surface of Golden Gate Fields. The jockey adds a little intrigue. Valdivia is good on turf and is capable on synthetic with certain closers. Tough to back on win end.
Puppy Manners is a Kitten who is not named a Kitten! Sire Kitten’s Joy does well with runners on the synthetic surface and is the leading sire by turf earnings in 2013 and among the leaders in 2014. With 8 lifetime races, he seems durable and is bet at the windows in multiple occasions. The connections are good and last 3 workouts are slow and long on the synthetic. Durable runner could surprise at bottom of Tri’s and Supers.
Pace:
I’ll Wrap it up could inherit the lead in this race that does not have a lot of “brilliant” speed. Enterprising is the only additional horse who has shown any ability to run near the lead. Enterprising best race is stalking and he likes to run on the inside. Tamarando is a deep closer. Dance with Fate figures to get first run and has enough speed to stay within 4 lengths if the pace is really slow. I expect a slow pace 1:14 would not surprise me. Dance with Fate figures to benefit the most from that pace.
The Selection:
Recent runnings of this race have had a few upsets. Turf runners from Southern California have had good success the past couple of years. Dance with Fate has the class and recency edge and is my slight choice over Craftsman who is 2nd choice. I expect a slow pace and first jump on Tamarando is the key for Dance with Fate.