The defending champ Goldencents gets top billing in this year’s mile. Several horses who chased last year will take a 2nd stab at him.
The Skinny:
Goldencents prepped for this with a strong sprint race, he went wide in the last race and had a powerful win earlier this year in the Pat O’Brien when he was aggressively ridden. Never runs a bad race and will be favored. Should fire a good race – but a “fairer” surface than last year may change the results. Everyone is raving about his last couple of workouts and this guy never has thrown in the towel. Strong contender to repeat but nothing is ever that easy. Drew the rail and 6/5 morning line favorite.
Vicar’s In Trouble is a tweener, he may not have enough speed to take the lead, but doesn’t fit in the longer races and can’t really sprint. Think he could have a big 4-year-old season. He doesn’t need the lead to run his best race. His Louisiana Derby win was dominating but really had no excuse. I really like this horse and think he has some talent, but a mile against these guys may be a little more than he can handle at this point.
Tapiture hits the mile right between the eyes. On the cutback should be tough. Has enough speed to get position, doesn’t need the lead in this race and his West Virginia Derby was a strong race with some trip trouble. Strong shot but odds may be short for his actual chances. Likes to make a quick move to get into position but hangs a little when he gets the lead. Gets a new jockey and will be interesting to see how he is ridden in this race. Drew outside and has done his best running on the inside of horses.
Fed Biz has come back a leaner, meaner horse this year. Prepped for this with two 9 furlong races and should like the cut back. This guys hits hard looking down the barrell. Has some back class and faced good horses in the past. Has the ability to run on the lead and near the pace. Fit and in form lost to Goldencents at 7 furlongs but at a mile could reverse the tables.
Carve may be a little under-appreciated. Good running style and last race ran a big race against hard-hitting Pick of the Litter and Cigar Street. Can sit off the pace and may be able to capitalize if Goldencents slips at all. This is a step up in class but fits at the Grade 2 level and after Goldencents he is right in the mix with this bunch.
Golden Ticket needs a fast pace and fair surface to run his race. But every 3 or 4 races he gets that. He is a little big of a coward and needs to inherit the lead with a big rush and has a tendency to give in. Has some races capable of winning this and class is not a concern. On his best day can run with these and last race may have been a tightener for this effort.
The Selection:
Carve is the choice on a slight upset. Fed Biz should run well and Goldencents are all usable. Goldencents is very logical and never runs a bad race, but after that 4 or 5 horses are all capable.
Tosses:
Pants on Fire, and Vicar’s in Trouble may receive a lot of betting support but look like underlay in this spot.