The Derby Trial has become a race in recent years for “Milers” and distance challenged horses on the Derby trail. The view on Wednesday night is that Chitu is going to scratch and run in the Kentucky Derby.
Bayern is the favorite if he runs. He missed a few days of training going into the Arkansas Derby and tired late after setting some contested fractions at Oaklawn. Continues to train well by all accounts and has a fluid stride. With only 3 life-time races could be sitting on a big one in his next start. Likely to scratch.
Big Sugar Soda has a 8 length win at Saratoga on his Resume. Lately has lost 5 straight races. His last loss was to a razor-sharp Brewing in the Gazebo stakes. Distance fits and should be part of the pace for the first 6 furlongs.
Friendswith K Mill had no shot in the Santa Anita Derby, but takes a significant class drop and pedigree is a perfect fit for the one mile distance. Running style as a stalker/presser could fit well in this race if the fractions are fast up front. Good overall form and has faced some tough competition.
Matador has went up the class ladder in his last 3 races and ran evenly in all 3 efforts. Will like the cut back in distance and should fit well as a presser in this race. Is now 1 for 7 so fits on class and pace figures. Trainer and jockey like Churchill Downs. One work early this week has him on edge for this race.
Embellishing Bob comes off a big win at the Fairgrounds in his last race. Speed Figure is off the chart in that maiden victory. Has the pedigree to develop early and adds some pace to the race as a speed horse. Trainer does well at Churchill Downs and has plenty of bullets on the work tab going back into December. Faces some proven class horses in this race. But the fresh face sometimes fits in a race like this.
Laddie Boy has shown speed multiple times on several surfaces. Form seems to be tapering off the last couple of races and best races was last October. With 8 lifetime races needs to establish a level he is competitive at. This race is usually won by a lightly raced horse, or horse who can pick up the pieces. Tough race for him to get back on track.
Bitters ‘n Bourbon picked up a big win at Oaklawn Park, which had some tough maiden races this Winter/Spring. last effort he broke out and never got untracked after the rough start. Prefer others in this spot.
Spot gets a key jockey switch and goes back to a level that he can win. His one win in the Swale looks better on paper. He trailed early and the 2/5 favorite could not run on dirt in that race. The other horses burned them selves out chasing fast fractions and Spot picked up the pieces. See Spot Run – See Spot Lose.
Myositis Dan is the man with the weird name who wins races. Close to 91K in career earnings and a both wins at Keeneland. In form and is capable of running a big race from just off the pace in this race. Hard to back on win end, but should run a good race.
The Pace: The pace looks fast and contentious in this race. Laddie Boy is the need to lead time. Embellishing Bob and Big Sugar Soda have speed to press the issue and Bayern with his class won’t be far behind.
The Choice: Friendswith K Miss is my choice to come from off the pace and pick up the pieces in this contested pace scenario. Bayern is the 2nd obvious choice. But may scratch Saturday for the Derby.