Pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is this Friday through Sunday. Wagering closes at 6:00 Eastern time Sunday Eventing. Seven horses have made all 4 future pools with a few return horses from previous pools back for pool 4. Pool 4 will concentrate on finding potential overlays from actual derby day betting odds and focus on horses most likely to make the race.
American Pharoah – Figures to be the heavy favorite in the Arkansas Derby and one of the top 3 choices in Louisville. Running style in all 3 wins has been on the lead. This is a fast horse, but most likely wants the lead or will be in top 3 most of the race. Will go into Kentucky with only 2 “preps” as a sophomore and lightly tested. Derby day odds most likely to be 7/2. No real value playing him 5 weeks ahead of time at 6/1.
Ami’s Flatter runs Saturday in the Florida Derby which will determine if he gets the Derby starting gate. Consistent horse and seems to run his race. But at this point would probably be over 25/1 on Derby day unless he has a big win. Not a lot of upside and may not make the race. Questionable to get the distance and speed figures not competitive. Longshot to make the race and even longer shot to win race.
Bold Conquest has run on 2 wet tracks in both his starts this year. Arkansas Derby will be final prep. Will be long odds and at over 55/1 may be worth a small flyer as derby odds will be lower than that price. Not on my tickets but if you like him, worth a few dollars.
Bolo was listed in pool 3 and ran well in the San Felipe. Working well and will come into Santa Anita Derby in 2nd race of form cycle and 2nd race on dirt. The unknown will keep his price up. Has been explosive on turf and well-built horse. 40/1 is fair odds and most likely will be that price. A few exactas may be logical at the high price expected. High risk, high reward. Type of horse that may run better in full field and coming from off the pace.
Carpe Diem has been on all 4 future pools and has been between 10-15 in each pool. Price should be similar with him not running this weekend. Likely even money favorite in the Blue Grass and odds on Derby Day will be around 8/1. Offers some value at 10/1 or higher in pool 4 as a hedge.
Daredevil has two lifetime wins in the slop. His Grade 1 win was a 1 turn mile last fall. Runs in the Wood Memorial and needs to finish in top 2 to secure a derby starting gate. Races near the front and running style could put him in a potential pace meltdown derby day. Not worth the risk.
Dortmund has been bet heavily in all 3 future pools and on the tote board in all his races. He has raced 5 times and been favored every time. He will be favored in Santa Anita Derby. Most likely derby odds is about 4/1 or 5/1. If over that price, play him if you like him to win. Most likely derby favorite, lots to like. Has a win over Churchill Downs. Big robust animal with grit. No value in future wagers except for bragging rights or if he closes over 8/1.
Dubai Sky dominated the Spiral Stakes from the 11th post position and now owns 4 straight wins. Has faced large fields and is by Candy Ride and his progeny run on every surface. 30/1 is fair value and connections, pedigree and race performance are all a good fit for the derby. Just needs to take to the dirt.
El Kabeir will run in the Wood Memorial as his final prep. Likes to win and has a tactical running style. Seems slower than most of the top contenders. Most likely to be 15/1 or higher on Derby day so you need 30/1 or higher in pool 4 and may close at that. Tough call. Most likely to run in the race, but pedigree and speed figures look light.
Far From Over was bet down in Pool 3 future wagers. Only 2 lifetime races and will enter the Wood Memorial off a 60 day layoff and only 2 lifetime starts. 15/1 morning line is low for what he has actually shown on the track. Has talent but demand 17/1 in pool 4 to dive in. With only 10 points he is on a tightrope of making the race. Needs a top 3 finish in Wood Memorial.
Far Right is a late running closer who has been bet heavily in his races. Steps up in class in the Arkansas Derby and has enough points to make the gates in Louisville. Most likely unless we have a few injuries will be 25/1 on derby day. Tough to endorse with running style and will be facing a whole new level of quality in Kentucky. Has the right running style and has done nothing wrong. Hard to knock, but no real reason to play him in pool 4.
Firing Line had plenty of Ammunition in the Sunland Derby winning by 14 lengths. Has enough points for the starting gate and still is on the 2nd tier of most “Derby Lists” has tactical speed to take the lead and ability to get separation into the turn. Running style should have him with the leaders in the Derby. 15/1 is fair odds for a horse most likely to be about 10/1 come Derby day. Worth playing in a few exactas and some win tickets. Firing Line was listed in pool 2 and pool 3 and finished about 30/1. Value may still live in projected exacta payoffs.
Frosted faded in the FOY on a weird surface. Goes for Wood redemption and will be forwardly placed in that race. A big win in the Wood would lower his odds come Derby to about 17/1. Most likely to be about 40/1 in pool 4 offers true odds and value if you believe he can win the Wood Memorial. Frosted was not on the Pool 3 list so if you played the field in Pool 3 you could play a few exactas in this pool as a way of doubling down.
International Star no mystery with this horse has won 2 in a row and fires every race. Runs Saturday at the Louisiana Derby a top 2 finish will lower his odds. Has enough points to make the race. 20/1 or higher is fair value on a horse who will be in the starting gate and has a tactical running style and can run inside and outside of horses.
Itsaknockout runs Saturday in the Florida Derby has enough points to make the starting gate. May be pace compromised Saturday in the Florida Derby. A sneaky good 2nd or 3rd place finish may inflate his odds. This is a horse who I think will run better in the cool weather and away from Gulfstream. Pedigree is bred to run all day and be a late developer. Has only 3 lifetime races and a breakout may be coming.
Keen Ice is a longshot to make the race. Not sure why the fascination with this horse. He has run consistently slow races against moderate competition. His only win he closed with a flying finish to win by one inch. Basically this horse is closer to being a maiden for 3 more months than being in the Kentucky Derby. Only appeal is if he finishes in top 3 in Louisiana he will go to Derby, but don’t see any way he can win in Louisville 75/1 odds is too low.
MadefromLucky has a dressed up 2nd place finish to American Pharoah in the slop. His main contenders made multiple moves that hindered their final position. Distance is a concern and overall speed ratings. Longshot no value in future wagers.
Materiality is a new comer with 2 lifetime races. Running style puts him near the lead and if he wins the Florida Derby it will be his 3rd lifetime start. Many horses peak in 3rd or 4th lifetime start. Upside may be to play him in Florida Derby. Not sure if he is a Kentucky Derby type horse. Pace has a chance to be contentious to possibly fast and of all the main contenders he is the least experienced. Needs to finish top 2 in Florida Derby to have a chance at Derby starting gate.
Mr. Z runs in the Louisiana Derby. Has been trending high in the future wager pools since pool 1 and with a win on Saturday could be under 15/1. Has run with the best of his generation. Has danced all the dances and is experienced. If the odds are 20/1 or higher deserves a few exacta plays with some logical contenders. Good chance of being in the race.
Mubtaahij is based on Dubai watching replays he seems slow. UAE Derby results will determine if he can make the race. Running style is hard to imagine. Great trainer, should be in shape. The physical demands of running in the UAE Derby and the Ship demand long odds. Long way from Dubai to Louisville. Not on my tickets.
Prospect Park has the pedigree, and recent workouts has some upside and is very live in the Santa Anita Derby next week. 18/1 or higher is value and a few exactas may offer some overlays than derby day. Has a legitimate shot to win the Kentucky Derby. Worth considering. Has a strong juvenile foundation. Lots of positives with current form and development.
Upstart has been in all 4 future wager pools. A Florida Derby win will kill all chances of a price over 12/1. A tough luck 2nd and his odds may float and Derby Day odds will be in the 7-12/1 range. Can win the Derby but not a lot of value at this time in the future wager. One of the few horses with a plan since November. Three Prep campaign.
War Story runs in the Louisiana Derby and price will float depending on the result. Has a good running style and overall is a grinder who may like the long Churchill Downs Stretch. 25/1 is fair odds. Playable if you like a longshot who can come off the pace. Has a punchers chance but may offer more value on Derby day.
Field will still get about 5 horses in the Derby Starting gate and 10/1 is fair value. But this is one of those year’s with a top-heavy group of favorites. This seems like a year that an individual price horse will be a winning ticket.
Fair Odds:
Carpe Diem 12/1 or higher
Mr. Z – 18/1 or higher
Bolo 30/1 or higher
Firing Line 14/1 or higher
Prospect Park 20-/1 or higher
Itsaknockout 24/1 or higher
Frosted 40/1 or higher