Ominous clouds have loomed large over Louisville overnight and every person on twitter with access to dew point scale and barometric pressure are adding those into their Past Performances.
If the rain does fall heavy there a couple of horses that could benefit from the rain, a few horses could be hindered by Mother Nature. Goldencents looked extremely impressive in a February workout at Santa Anita during the afternoon between races. The key point about that work was the track was sealed and it was still raining. From past experiences horses who are near the lead and in the top flight tend to do better if it is still raining during the race.
Winner: Verrazano is a special talent, his maiden win on January 1st was impressive in hand with complete control of the race from the outset and defeated Acclaim who came back to win his next start. In the Tampa Bay Derby, Verrazano faced some pace pressure from Falling Sky for almost three furlongs engaging Falling Sky twice before defeating. I’m not sure if Verrazano is improving but a repeat of his Tampa Bay Derby and Wood races make him a possible winner. Horses that make multiple moves in route races are race and I like the fact that twice in the Wood he moved at push button command of Johnny V. My own prediction is that Verrazano will lay further back than people think and will make a run going into the turn and open up a couple of lengths on the field. From there it’s a question mark every year for every horse. Todd Pletcher likes to run his horses with only two preps. The fact that Verrazano has raced four times is a good sign for me. Also the fact that he worked 8 days out before this race is a change. Barn 34-4 is the real deal!
Normandy Invasion has looked outstanding the last few weeks at Churchill Downs. I like the fact that he had a plan and never deviated from that plan since last November. He broke slow in the Risen Star and rallied while running wide. They pointed to the Wood, never missed a beat in his training pattern and rallied for second with a strong gallop out against Verrazano. He has shown more speed in his Churchill Works and I feel his is sitting on a big effort. A well timed move against Verrazano could turn the tables.
Revolutionary has put together 4 straight solid races and has the pedigree to like the slop and the distance. Another horse who polished off a maiden win and then went right into stakes company, his run in the Wood at the rain while splitting horses was a move that few horses will make at any time in their career. My only worry with Revolutionary is possibly new jockey Calvin Borel, I usually lie horses who come in the Derby with their Jockey. Big shot to fill any of exotic positions.
Itsmyluckyday: 60 days rest before the Florida Derby Itsmyluckyday runs best in 2nd race in form cycle. Once he proved he was fast enough in January with his back to back 100 plus speed ratings. The trainer softened up on the training gave him a break. Tightening the screws last week with a one mile workout at Calder. Son of Lawyer Ron has to be on my tickets. Danzing and Seattle Slew breeding with a low head stride should have great postion and should relish the slop. Chance to turn the tables on Orb at double the odds.
Orb: Four Straight wins and has tactical speed to lay close enough, but if he chooses to lay close to the pace may hinder the one run he has been making in Florida. This horse has worked up and been agitated in Florida. Only concern is large crowd and long time in paddock before going to track could take some of his energy level. 6/1 is a solid price but I’m leaving him as my 5th choice.
This year’s Derby trail did not have a lot of surprises. Lack of late developing horses means less chance of an upset in my experince. Many horses from pool one made the Derby which is very rare. I really feel that the top five horses have about 70% chance of winning this race.
Thats the way I see it. I think Verrazano is the real deal. Normandy Invasion is my 2nd pick and lets see where the chips fall. I will use both on all tickets.
Oxbow and Overanalyze would offer some value if you are looking for some shots to close the trifecta or superfecta.
Good Luck have some fun and play some combinations that can pay a mortgage payment or two!