Churchill Downs is offering 2015 Kentucky Derby wagering for the 2nd straight year on Thanksgiving weekend. Last year 1 of the 23 horses made the starting gate. The Field over Ride On Curlin was the winning wager. The KDFW has become more of a marketing tool for the Kentucky Derby than a serious wager.
With the Kentucky Derby points system and the later development of many of the 3 year olds. There is no real value in wagering in pool 1, but a fun side bet to follow a couple of horses along the bumpy trail.
True odds on all these horses are over 100/1. Some horses I do believe have a better change of making the race than others based on pedigree, performance, race record and overall resume.
I have grouped the horses into 3 classifications:
100/1 – Have a chance of making the race based on pedigree, running style, and form.
200/1 – Possibly could make the race, things to like, but some question marks.
500/1 – Highly Doubtful they make the race –
American Pharoah 200/1 – The sire side of the pedigree is very strong, but the female side is bred more for speed. Not a lot of black type in this family. Was one-dimensional in both his wins. Already has a foot bruise.
Blofeld 200/1 – Race record is solid, has 3 races which is good form development. Distance issues are a little concern and Storm Cat as the BM Sire is always a concern going to the disabled list.
Calculator 500/1 – Still a maiden after 4 races. Has faced American Pharoah twice and lost both times. Florida Bred has a speedy family on the sire side. Everything would have to go perfect.
Carpe Diem 100/1 – Giant’s Causeway has produced a bevy of distance horses. Dynamic race at Keeneland and Breeders Cup race is better than looked. Good foundation with 3 races. Pedigree fits for getting to the race.
Classy Class 100/1 – Going out on a limb, pedigree is speed. First race was impressive. Got stuck in bad post in Remsen Stakes, but how he does in that race will determine his pool 1 odds. Big, robust colt who carries a lot of weight.
Competitive Edge 200/1 – Has been injured once already, and speed is his calling card. Was fast at the sales, was fast in the races. Has class and should love the Gulfstream highway over the winter. Somethings to like but a lot of injuries with these connections, pedigree and already on the Disabled List once.
Daredevil 500/1 – One dimensional speedball who has 2 wins in the slop. Was hard ridden in debut race to pick up victory. Breeders Cup was an outside post. No real value and have seen this story too many times with this group of owners and slop wins have a negative effect on horses development.
Dortmund 200/1 – based on 1 race he has lots of potential. Will race on Saturday at Churchill in Allowance race that he will be 7/5 in. Female family is very light. Big, horse who carries a lot of weight, impressive race on the engine, loses blinkers for start #2. Big Brown was fragile, not sure he can take the training program he is going to get, Baffert, likes to work them fast, hard and long. This horse carries a lot of weight, built like a tank and lands hard on his front legs. Was in a 2-year-old sale, so needs a break at some point.
Eagle 100/1 – has great development with 3 races. Trainer has been patient. Has shown ability to pass horses. Has not run fast, but has the pedigree to run faster. Female family is solid. Mare won 2 races on turf at 9 furlongs. Will continue to get better.
El Kabeir 500/1 – this guy won on a very biased racetrack and has shown twice since then he can’t compete at this level. Has a turf pedigree and Scat Daddy’s won’t run 10 furlongs on the dirt.
Frosted – 100/1 – Pedigre is top-notch, distance shouldn’t be a concern and ran the first 3 races of his career without lasix. Runs in Remsen from the 14th post position. Could get his form muddied up in that race. Smooth stride.
I Spent It 500/1 – has already proved he’s a sprinter. Been on the disabled list already. Pedigree was win early. 2 Year old sale purchase has been in training for a while. No real upside. Was trained to win early and show speed. Connections like the 2 prep campaign – pushing 2 hard in first start back. Super Saver was one of the worst Kentucky Derby winners in last 15 years. But he was a precocious runner at 2 and has a solid pedigree, It’s a classy pedigree, but injury-prone and not sure if the Super Savers will really want 10 furlongs. But Winstar is hyping him up like he’s the 2nd coming.
Imperia 200/1 – Will try dirt in Kentucky Jockey Club. Pedigree is nice and has good form development. Will have 4 races as juvenile and 3 on turf which is a lot less jarring for 2 year olds. Lots to like.
Lord Nelson 200/1 – Fast horse who has been working consistently for 3 months. Will have 4 races as Juvenile. Has the ability to rate and is learning how to race. Should develop and has the speed. Not too hard to imagine him in starting gate in May.
Lucky Player 500/1 – won slow stakes race and has already faced the best of his generation in the Breeders Cup. Just not fast enough to compete with the big boys on the big stages. There is not upside to this horse – he is what he is.
Mr. Z 200/1 – this is based on the fact he is a “smart” horse is a gutsy guys who seems to run his race every time. Is on a 6 race losing streak, but two of them he could have won. Will dance all the dances and with this trainer and owner if he has the Points he will run. This guy has Iowa Derby, West Virginia Derby written all over him and will make a lot of money.
Ocho Ocho Ocho 500/1 – I really like this horse, has guts, but is a little light framed and needs to get bigger and put on more weight. Already talk of 2 prep campaign next spring with the final race being the Santa Anita Derby. That leaves little room for error. Sire has been known to get lots of Milers and 8.5 furlong horses like Tapit, not sure if they crave 10 furlongs. Like him as the “New Shooter” in the Preakness.
Ostrolenka 200/1 – A personal favorite has run big races twice now and drew the 12 post in the Remsen. Could develop a little more for the Musket Man progeny but ultimately may not want 10 furlongs. But he has a shot if he stays in New York this winter to get the points he may need for the race.
Punctuate 200/1 – Impressive maiden win for the popular son of Pepper’s Pride. Distorted Humor’s love Churchill Downs. Has already missed a few workouts with a breathing issue. Should be back on tab soon. Has a lot of workouts so the overall fitness is already in the development.
Texas Red 100/1 – This is based on the fact, that he has the right running style, but he won the Breeders Cup because of pace collapse. Ideally he will need 3 preps to round back into form in the spring. Horses like this need a lot of racing with 5 races as a juvenile. A solid spring campaign of 3 preps would be perfect.
The Great War 500/1 – has run 8 times as a juvenile. Many sprints. They are turfers and this is totally for publicity because they want to hype the War Fronts for the sales. Long odds that he makes the races and even longer to actually win the race.
Unblunted 200/1 – Has only 2 races, but this guy wants to run all day. Has long works. Pedigree is more for speed, but everything about his says router. Needs 1 more race as a Juvenile. Los Al Futurity may be pushing it an allowance race would be perfect but doubt one fills.
Upstart 100/1- Impressive juvenile campaign, Breeders Cup race was solid. Has speed, but doesn’t need the lead. Already down in Florida, Final Prep would probably be the Wood Memorial. Everything is in place – just needs to stay healthy and get a little faster at the right time at late March and early April.
Recap:
Possible: Texas Red, Eagle, Frosted, Upstart, Carpe Diem, Classy Class
Maybe: Unblunted, Punctuate, Ostrolenka, Mr Z
Unlikely: The Rest