One Million Dollars in the Bayou has attracted a diverse field. Key fact to remember this is a bull ring with a short 660 foot stretch. Must be within 2 lengths of lead entering the stretch and horses who can “slingshot” to the lead do best, not grinding type of speed. With 90% chance of rain in the forecast for Saturday. I’m basing my selections on a off track and sloppy track.
The Skinny:
Prime Engine entered the Bob Hope stakes and then scratched for this spot. Speedy horse was too much for the Emerald Downs company lines. Last race looks better on paper. 1/5 favorite Trackattacker ran off and sent fast fractions and ended up running last. Prime Engine – basically tracked for 1/2 mile and inherited the lead when everyone else collapse. Goes up in class and fair price is about 5/1. The Pride of Emerald Downs might be Gator Bait to the other speed in the Delta.
Golden Actor dominated the Jean Laffit in the prep for this race. Debut race at Gulfstream earned a competitive speed figure. Needs to improve, but experience over the track and a pedigree that should handle the distance. Some big names in this pedigree – Curlin and Theatrical – which gives him a license to run all day. Pedigree is that of a late developer and still have room to move forward off the 3 races. Dangerous and the price may be right.
Unblunted has impressed in both races. His debut race he closed late and was flying at the finish at Los Alamitos. In his last race, went wide and defeated some highly touted horses. Gives up experience to seasoned rivals. But talent is on display, will want to include on a few tickets. On the outside looking in at this point.
Conquest Tsunami was overmatched against Carpe Diem but came back in a soft Street Sense and controlled the pace. Casse sends runners to this race every year. Short 660 foot stretch should help him and has stakes experience that some of the other recent maiden winners lack. Conquest Tsunami is a 3 time stakes winner and has earned over 280K. His pedigree does suggest synthetic and may regress after last start being 3rd straight race on dirt.
Far Right had a rough trip in last race. Prior to that faded in a strong Futurity Stakes at 6 furlongs. Drew off to powerful maiden score. Not sure he wants 8.5 furlongs at this time and the pace should be contentious will have to come off the pace to win and not sure that is his best game at this point. His weapon is speed, has current form, faces other classy horses and will need some racing luck to pick up the score.
Wake Up Nick is a sprinter but is in shape and connections have won this race in the past. 7 furlongs may be best distance and why not take a shot for 3-4-5 place money he has speed and has run in stakes races. He will add fuel to the fire and may get brave on the bull ring. Belongs in the race and looking for purse money. No sprints to run in for this kind of money. Wake Up Nick is a money machine earning over 346K so far. Last race lost to a sharp maiden winner who went wire to wire in the Golden State Juvenile. A punchers chance because of his speed.
Ocho Ocho Ocho has an outstanding pedigree on paper and both his races have been fast on all the numbers. Was ridden aggressively in last race and drew off to the win. He should be pressing the pace and has outclassed his competition so far. I expect a strong race from the son of Street Sense.
Mr Z comes to Cajun country with the biggest resume. The son of Malibu Moon has competed in 5 straight graded stakes races after earning his diploma in career debut at Churchill Downs. So far “Z” has shown a versatile running style. He was sent to the lead in the Iroquois Stakes and that was his worst career performance. The Breeders Cup Juvenile this year was a strong, contentious pace and above average race. Mr. Z was part of the fractions early while running wide and part of a 7 horse scrum contesting the lead. Mr Z has the class and the best running style. He has also lost 5 straight races and ships after running very hard in the Breeders Cup. His odds will be low. The type of horse you could single because of form and earnings. Could also play the contrarion view and bet against, that he may be “over the top” and likely to regress on the quick turn-around after a demanding race. Lots to think about with this guy.
Saratoga Heater picked up a couple of nice wins in New York and enters in great form for Albert Stall who has done well down at the Fairgrounds the past couple of years. This son of Freshman stallion Temple City is a son of Dynaformer. Saratoga Heater came from off the pace in his maiden victory and then overpowered rivals in his Stakes debut winning by 4 lengths.
Dekabrist is entered in the silks of Gennadi Dorochenko aka “The Mad Russian” and this horse led every step of the way in his maiden victory winning by 15. The bad news that was May 11th and it was a 6 horse field. This horse was also .20 cents on the dollar winning a stakes race. The bad news it was a 4 horse field on June 14th.
The Selection:
My pace projection sees Ocho Ocho Ocho as the most likely horse to lead after 4 furlongs, the fractions should be faster than average and expect a contested pace with Wake Up Nick and Prime Engine also capable of pressing.
From that point the race gets tricky. My strategy is going to hope that Mr. Z is a little over the top. Prime Engine is overbet.
I think 3 horses can be leveraged that represent some value in multi-race pools and verticals. Saratoga Heater comes in with speed, recent form and a good workout pattern. Unblunted is my 2nd selection, I have been impressed with both his starts. Ocho Ocho Ocho should also appreciate the distance and sloppy track, although the outside post is a bit of a concern.