Close Hatches will be favored, but several challengers on paper appear to be rounding into form. Untapable takes on older horses for the first time.
The Skinny:
Untapable takes on older horses for the first time and has been training over the Santa Anita Surface for over a week. The 3-year-old filly division has been a one-horse division. Untapable has the perfect pounce and stalk running style and should get first run on the leader Tiz Midnight turning for home. This seems like a race she can win, her best move is going into the turn, which is where many of these are vulnerable. She will be chasing solid fractions and not sold she is a classic 9 furlong horse.
Tiz Midnight is on the improve and with 7 lifetime races including 3 on the synthetic surface she could improve and fits as the natural speed of the race. Her 3 race win streak was impressive and her loss to Beholder was solid. Recent works indicate fitness and assume she will be on a send mission and try to control the pace. Not really sure she wants anything to do with 9 furlongs.
Don’t Tell Sophia is a winner 11 for 22 lifetime and 4 for 5 in 2014. She ran well against Close Hatches at OP. Has a come from behind running style but gets enough pace and enough horses to pick up horses on the turn. Expecting a big effort and should like the 9 furlong distance. One of the few horses who can get 9 furlongs and runs well on all surfaces.
Close Hatches threw in a clunker last race. Her slop win may have caused a regression in last race. Running style fits but she has been in training since January. Could bounce back, but toss that slop win – she has been winning by close margins all year and Santa Anita will be a new track. Close Hatches has 2 workouts since the Keeneland race and may have just need to get back on a firm course. The sloppy track win may have been tougher than it looked. She is very capable of winning, but she is not a standout.
Unbridled Forever looks outmatched on paper. The Indiana race came with a wide post and middle race sweeping move, she was outfinished late but a good effort, seems to be training well. Has some back races that were good and then flattened out. This is Dallas Stewart who got two complete clowns to run 2nd in the Derby. I’m using in the Superfecta.
Iotapa has a running style that is not fast enough to clear the field. But will have problems with pressure from Untapable and Close Hatches entering the turn. She’s a Tweener – not fast enough to put them away early and can’t hold off the mid-pace pressure. Recent races don’t inspire confidence. Think she may be an underlay in this spot.
Stanwyck likes to “suck” you in – but at the end of the day she is 3 for 17 lifetime. Last race she basically quit after 5 furlongs – she was closer to the pace that day, because of the lone speed. Ideally she lays back 5-7 lengths and relaxes and tries to run into the soft part of the race late. Not without hope and may be truly a price in this race.
The Selection:
This Distaff looks chalky, but plenty of question marks do make it appealing on the wagering side. Don’t Tell Sophia likes the distance. Untapable has been training over the track and has a perfect running style attacks on the turn and gets first jump on Close Hatches and Tiz Midnight. Somehow – I see Unbridled Forever in the top 4 – just because it’s Dallas Stewart and last race she woke up. Don’t really have a sold opinion on this race and will be going lightly in case Untapable or Close Hatches win.
Tosses:
Ria Antonia and Iotapa are tosses for me in the top 2 positions.