A high-profile class highlights the 2015 Breeders Cup Classic. Winners of Kentucky Derby, Met Mile, Pacific Classic and Jockey Club Gold Cup meet in a 10 furlong championship. American Pharoah is the top Sophomore. Beholder takes on the boys. Tonalist and Honor Code are the 2 best older horses in training.
Breeders Cup Classic 2015 Field
Tonalist knocked down the door with a huge Jockey Club Gold Cup win. Loves the 10 furlongs and will be motoring late down the lane. Big son of Tonalist has run in all the big races this year with an old school campaign. Morning line of 6/1 is fair odds for stone cold runner who loves the 10 furlongs. Tonalist had a campaign that set up for a perfect fall. He lost a head bob in the Suburban. The Met Mile was too short for him and Honor Code ran out of his skin. Training forwardly and just needs a fair track and one run to put in his best race. Does not have gears needs to get in rhythm and then make long run and seize the lead. Move up even more on an off track.
Keen Ice captured his 2nd lifetime win in 11 starts winning the Travers Stakes in the final strides over a leg-weary American Pharoah. Distance of 10 furlongs should be up his wheel-house but he is slower than many of his rivals in this spot. Took a couple of weeks off after Travers victory. Mixed signals but really think he peaked in the Travers and is on the downside for this year. Overall too slow to compete with the top 4 or 5 contenders.
Frosted dominated the Pennsylvania Derby as the favorite and enters with a 6 week freshening. Since surgery this past February to correct a breathing problem he has been consistently in every race. Wood Memorial and Pennsylvania wins were emphatic. His Derby was solid and ran a gutsy race in the Belmont which may have been a tad too far. His Travers running style of prompting the pace was a solid effort at 10 furlongs and may be one of the true 10 furlong horses in this crop. Expecting a big effort and may get first run on Honor Code and Tonalist.
American Pharoah is the first Triple Crown Winner in the Breeders Cup era and enters with an intimidating 8 wins in 10 starts and will go favored. His ideal distance is 9 furlongs but class and speed make him a threat at 10 furlongs. They backed off in works for a couple of weeks and slowly worked his way into shape. It’s been a long year. Fast and capable, but needs to bring “A” race off the long break, and face older horses and other speed. A tough ask and fair price is 5/2.
Gleneagles this clown show has no business in this race. Beat a 3 horse field and 2 5 horse fields. Long layoff. Owners and Trainers have failed repeatedly bringing these horse over for the classic. Even with all that his last race he clearly did not try to bring speed to the party is most likely better than Keen Ice and Hard Aces even on his worst day. Look for him to threaten down the backstretch and could force the pace.
Effinex was raced closer to the pace in JCGC. Expect him to lay back and make one long run. Can get the distance and is most likely to beat Keen Ice in this race. Very usable for Superfecta. New Jockey in Mike Smith , gets a pace to run at and will probably get a better trip in this race. Lost to Tonalist by 11 lengths last race. Seems to have regressed since August.
Smooth Roller picked up a G1 win in the Awesome Again. Came from off the pace that day to secure the big victory. Big, horse who carries a lot of weight. Only 4 lifetime races and could get better next year. Facing the best in the division in this race and has to ship out of Santa Anita. Think his Awesome Again was a solid effort and could be a player in the older division in 2016.
Hard Aces has spotty form since his upset, inside hugging rail win in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Has shown no signs of being competitive in his last 2 races. Longshot. Clearly overmatched in this race.
Beholder brings excitement and a quick turn of foot into this race. Undefeated in 2015 and with dominating victories over the Distaff division. The Pacific Classic was a corker winning in hand and earning an impressive set of speed figures from all the figure makers. Lifetime record and tactical speed, she will make a move and the crowd will erupt going into the far turn. How does she finish when tackled by the Big Bady Boyz down the lane?
Honor Code ran his best race of the year in the Met Mile with a sweeping move on the turn and brought down the house with a fast final quarter. His Whitney was fast, but received the benefit of a grueling pace and inside trip. He won in the final stride which is hard to repeat. He has never raced 10 furlongs. Throw out the Kelso – slow pace, small field and sloppy track he had no chance in that race. Fun horse, talented. Honor Code has put in some spirited workouts lately.
Breeders Cup Classic Contender
Honor Code is a Grade 1 horse with a signature Met Mile victory with a quick burst of speed. The cool weather of Kentucky should be perfect for him as he has washed out and had a tendency to lather up in the hot weather. Throw out the Kelso that was a workout only. Never underestimate a top class older horse, pointing for a big race with a legitimate trainer and not a factory trainer.
Pace Makes the Race:
Early: American Pharoah
Pressing: Beholder, Smooth Roller
Stalking: Frosted, Tonalist
Closing: Honor Code
How the Classic Unfolds:
In American Racing – Class laughs at Pace. The 2 best distance horses in America are Honor Code and Tonalist. Beholder gets first run and will run well, but if the track is fair. The best horse is capable of winning this race. Tonalist is the top choice, Honor Code 2nd choice.