This year’s Classic, may not feature the “Headline” star, but a consistent group of 3 year olds have emerged with Tonalist, Shared Belief, Bayern and California Chrome deciding the Sophomore Championship. The older horses add intrigue with the talented Cigar Street – who has been MIA but has a lot of appeal. New York Bred Zivo and Toast of New York add a touch of mystery to the field. Barbara Livingston capture this year’s essence with the Guillot Vodoo Doll photo.
The Best is Yet to Come!
Bayern put in a Madison Squre Garden performance in the Woody Stephens – blowing away a field of 12 other horses and earning a speed figure that registers high on all the major speed charts. His Haskell and City of Brotherly Love wins were impressive – but a perceived speed bias lingers in many cappers heads. The Travers was a bad loss. But the fractions were fast and took its toll on Tonalist and Wicked Strong in that race. Bayern is back on his home track, has had 30 days to train, and does not have to ship. Talented – but faces other pressure for the lead. Has put on a lot of miles this year, has been at Santa Anita for 30 days to train. Recent workouts continue to be positive.
Tonalist delivered the knockout performance in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Avoiding trouble on the backstretch and altering course in mid-stretch to out-finish the field in the last race. A true 10 furlong horse, lightly raced, his best races wins this. This is a classic distance horse in pedigree and body language. Versatile runner seems to be on edge. The Guillot Voodoo Doll has him as Kermit the Frog. His Belmont win was a grinding win, his Peter Pan win was a front-running force. His JCGC win showed a new dimension coming from last place. Good horses win in different ways. This is probably the most talented horse of this generation and a 4 year old campaign could be legendary.
Shared Belief is undefeated and despite the Hollywood antics in his last race emerged undefeated. Point to consider: He is 800 pounds, he has feet problems, he was tired after last race, his best races have been on synthetic. Will be favored. How low of a price do you want to take? I’m just not seeing it – I’ve been his biggest fan, and it’s not his fault, but the Pacific Classic pace was a meltdown. The Los Al surface is very speedy and favors inside speed. Not sure if he can handle – legit front end speed, middle moves and late moves and beat everyone.
Moreno is a tweener has the speed to go to the lead, but runs best when left alone unmolested. His last race may have been signs of a long campaign. Shipping across the country and faces speed pressure from both California Chrome and Bayern. Capable but distance is an issue. He has managed to beat Last Gunfighter decisively. Think he is going off form and Voodoo Dolls may be his only hope.
Cigar Street – is lightly raced because of two major injuries. This horse is huge and towers over opponents with long strides. He finished full of run and was in a hammerlock the entire Churchill Race. Has never raced in a Grade 1 race. Has the pedigree. But the odds will not be good. The name, the breeding and the trainer will all contribute to a lower than expected price on the win end. Should be sitting 5th place after a half mile in striking distance. No excuses if he’s good enough. Not sure he can win winning this would be greater than Da Hoss comeback which was greater than Lazarus.
California Chrome gets no respect after back to back losses on the track and a tremendous Public Relations hit by his owners. Facts are he won 6 races in a row when leading by 3 lengths at the top of the stretch. This group of horses has caught up with him. His Philly race was disturbing. Recent works indicate fitness may be coming back. Have a feeling he will be sent to get position in the Classic – this could cause a pressured pace and set up for a pace meltdown. I respect him, but I just don’t fear him in this spot and really question if he likes 10 furlongs.
Zivo is a New York tough guy with a consistent win record. His Suburban was a quality win at 10 furlongs. He went against the track bias in the Whitney and Woodward. Was outrun by Tonalist in last race. One of the few horses who will benefit from a pressured speed duel. Should come running late and it’s between him and Tonalist to get a solid trip. Speed figures are a little light at 9 furlongs, but 10 furlongs hits him between the eyes. If the pace is contested and collapses, he is one of the legitimate horses who will like the 10 furlongs.
Candy Boy would love a speed duel. Consistent form and rough trips put him in the mix to hit the top 5. Has a shot to win, but would need a speed duel and a couple of other horses to not show up. Training consistently over his home track and doesn’t have to ship. Last two works have been long stamina works, he is being trained to run 10 furlongs. Liked this guy all your and can’t imagine him not running in top 5. Expect him to run a strong race. He will be running late.
The Selection:
Pace will make the race. I’m expecting a long drawn out pace duel down the backside going into the far turn. I don’t think the fractions will be fast but several horses will make moves to try to take the lead. Whoever runs with Bayern will pay the price, but Moreno and California Chrome are salty enough to try. I see all closers. Zivo is solid odds, Tonalist is the best horse, Candy Boy – 3rd and Cigar Street 4th. Pucker-Up Butter-Cup!
Tosses:
Tosses for me in the multi-race wagers and to finish out of the top 2: California Chrome, Moreno, Toast of New York and Footbridge.