The Bluegrass Stakes returns to dirt, with that comes smaller fields and most likely smaller prices. Several of these horses may have long-term upside.
The Skinny:
Ocho Ocho Ocho was working very well for a return to the races. Several of his workouts were on Video and he was moving fast and had a quick turn of foot. His San Felipe was awful he had a rough start and had no shot. Expect much better improvement and he will be on the lead. Should lead them into the stretch. Fighting chance.
Gorgeous Bird has some talent and think he will win stakes races down the road. May benefit from the cooler weather of Kentucky and is better than last race. Could be in the Trifecta Mix. Running style puts him in 2nd half of the field for 6 furlongs and then it’s a matter of how many horses he can pick up in the stretch.
Pepper Roani is way overmatched in this spot. Trying dirt and facing classier horses and the only way he gets 9 furlongs is if Carpe Diem carries him the last 1/8th of the race.
Unrivaled has improved and last race looks “good” on paper but visually he was facing Park Allowance horses, whole new level of ball game in this race. Will close but seems really slow.
Carpe Diem is the class of the race. I’m a firm believer that “great” horses do unique things. Winning at 5.5 furlongs dueling at the rail in his first race was amazing and galloped out strong. Dominated the Keeneland Futurity last fall with speed. Came from off the pace in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Ultimately he controls the pace. Expect a stalking trip but his speed and class will put him on the lead entering the stretch. Let the Big Dog Eat!
Frammento is a horse that is getting better and has shown stamina in all his races. His last race was unusual making up a lot of ground late in the race. Needs to stay within 7 lengths to have any impact late. Not a win threat but in the 2nd/3rd place mix.
Classy Class is a horse with speed but overall is a notch below a G1 horse. His ideal distance is a mile to 8.5 furlongs. Class 2 company. New surface may wake him up and he fits with this group except for Carpe Diem.
Danzig Moon flopped in Tampa Bay Stakes debut. Overall several lengths slower than Carpe Diem. Best races have been near the lead. Expect him to be forwardly placed and capable of setting down honest fractions on the front end with Ocho Ocho Ocho. Has some grit and the longer he is in the race could make some noise.
Fair Odds:
Carpe Diem – Even
Gorgeous Bird 9/1
Danzig Moon 7/1
The Choice:
Pace will be key to this race. Several horses could benefit from slow pace. Carpe Diem is class, speed and overall form of this race. He can run near the leaders and recent workouts have indicated he is finishing strongly. Looks very formidable in this spot.
Recommended Exacta:
Carpe Diem over: Gorgeous Bird, Frammento