2015 Belmont Stakes
Beautiful Belmont Park is the scene and American Pharoah looks to become a Triple Crown Winner. The Champion 2-year-old is on top of his game and will be tough to handle in the 147th running of the Belmont Stakes.
The Skinny:
Mubtaahij ran evenly in the Kentucky Derby, but the cards were stacked against him that day. With the ship from Dubai, the quarantine and training over the Arlington synthetic surface and arrived late to Churchill Downs. Has worked frequently in the past 5 weeks and has some tremendous distance breeding influences in this race. I have no idea how “fast” he really is. Physical Conditioning edge, recent works and does his best running with cover and sweep wide. All signs point to a top effort on Belmont Day.
Tale of Verve closed in the Preakness Stakes, and can “Run all Day” (TM) but class level and ability to get in the race sooner are really questioned. 4-6th place finish is most likely. One career win, slow overall speed figures. Pass for me on Win Tickets.
Madefromlucky won the Belmont prep for this in the Peter Pan, taking advantage of a speed duel and then rallied wide on a day when the outside of the track was the best place to be. American Pharoah defeated him twice in Arkansas. Has a solid foundation and has an even style of running that plays well in this race. Not sure he can handle Grade 1 horses and they passed on the Kentucky Derby for this spot. Possibility he regresses off Peter Pan and not a major win threat.
Frammento is a closer who should be able to get the 12 furlongs, and may pass a few horses. Has impressed with his lung capacity since his first race. Galloping out strongly in several races to start his career. Bluegrass was a solid effort, but G1 competition is a tough hurdle. Think he may be better than Tale of Verve and Madefromlucky.
American Pharoah makes a pretty solid case. He is 6 for 7 lifetime with 6 straight wins. Pharoah has dominated the competition in Arkansas and Baltimore and survived a gritty duel in Kentucky. He has a tactical running style and is the class of the race with 5 Grade 1 wins and wins over multiple surfaces “Big Sandy” should not be a problem. Running style puts him on the lead or near the lead after 4 furlongs. He fits on form, class and speed. Hits hard in this spot.
Frosted is a different horse post throat surgery this spring and has changed his running style and ran 2 of his faster races. Dominating the Wood Memorial with slow fractions. Wide trip in the Derby and was running at the end. Strong recent workouts indicate fitness and has the benefit of 5 weeks to get ready for this spot. Trainer won the 2006 Belmont with Jazil Formidable. Final Workout last week was impressive:
Materiality had a late start to racing and Florida Derby was a strong tightener for a solid Kentucky Derby run. He broke a step slow in the Derby and was forced to run from the back of the pack, checked on the turn, rode the inside down the stretch and finished with some run. Should fire a good race not sure he can win.
Keen Ice is a slow horse and no amount of distance will really improve his chances. He is fit, should be fresh following the Kentucky Derby. Don’t see him with any chance to win, but another who could close for 4th or 5th is someone tries to “win” the race and fades late down the Belmont Stretch.
2015 Selections to Date:
Fair Odds:
American Pharoah 4/5
Frosted 6/1
Mubtaahij 10/1
The Selection:
American Pharoah looms large in this race. Having more tactical speed than many of the deep closers. Pharoah is also the fastest horse in this race. He’s won 6 in a row, his form is solid and he has defeated the best of this crop. He’s a better prospect to win the Belmont than California Chrome a year ago. Pharoah by Five widening lengths.
Betting Strategy:
Straight Exactas: Pharoah over Frosted and Mubtahij. 5/1-6