A Triple Crown is on the line in the 2014 Belmont Stakes and California Chrome looks to make it 7 wins in a row. Several horses have posted nice works in the last week, making this year’s “Test of Champions” a worthy challenge for California Chrome. the Wide Sweeping Turns of Belmont await this year’s field.
California Chrome has joined a select group of horses with his 6 race winning streak and is one of just 210 horses who have won 3 Grade 1 races. His 6 race winning streak has been unmatched in recent years and enters with a versatile running style, push-button acceleration and the ability to quickly run his challengers into the ground entering the turn. The 1 1/2 mile strip of Big Sandy does come into play in the Belmont. Chrome has the speed to take this field wire to wire if he chooses. Many of the contenders do their best running from just off the pace. The keys to the car are in the hand of Victor Espinoza – a clean break and Victor must make the decision to stalk or establish a fair pace and run many of the non-contenders into the ground with a sub 48 and change for the half mile and sub 1:13 for the 6 furlong mark. All signs say go and his record is as good as they come 8 for 12 lifetime and approaching 3.5 million dollars in earnings. Hits hard on current form and class. Pedigree does not matter he has already outrun that in his last 6 races. Chrome just swats away anyone who tries to range up on him. The only way you are going to beat him is be up on him early, or go by quickly. His turn of foot and intimidation level is one to be reckoned with. This is the Al Davis of Horses – He Just Wins Baby!
Commanding Curve closed well for 2nd place in the Kentucky Derby, but the pace profile and clear trip may have benefitted his late run that day. Pedigree says 12 furlongs might be a bit of stretch, but development and running style indicates he should like the distance. Recent works have been keeping him fit. But many times 2nd and 3rd place finishes in the derby are deceiving. Still eligible for Non-Winner of 1X Allowance. Price may be shorter than usual based on 2nd place Derby finish.
Matuszak – This guy has the pedigree of Tarzan and the running ability of Jane. Son of Bernadini out of a Mr. Prospector mare is a natural stretch runner but lacks serious speed to stay with this field.
Commissioner has danced all the dances, but most of them have been slow waltzes. His career highlight is beating Top Billing back on January 3rd and has not seemed to move forward since that effort. He has become a Perks reward traveler having been to Florida, New Mexico and New York in 2014 alone. Early on his career he was a presser as the races started to get faster he became a closer. I did like the way he plodded along in the slop in the Peter Pan and he seems to have a long fuse. Have a feeling he has some fight in him. He out-gamed Irish You Well int he Peter Pan for 2nd and also hung tough against Top Billing. This guy would probably appreciate 1;15 fractions and allow him to stay closer to the pace and try to wear these guys out with a long sustained run.
Matterhorn is the 2nd best Tapit in the field. He was recently sold and the price had to be less than they paid for him originally. He did face older horses and lost at Aqueduct. His Peter Pan was a late effort for 4th. Another who seems to lack a burst of speed.
Medal Count was a welcome addition to the field last week. His most recent work indicates some speed still int he tank with a 6F move in 1:10 and change and galloped out 7 furlongs in 1;24 and change. Dynaformer in his pedigree should allow him to run the 12 furlongs rather comfortably. Unbridled’s Song adds some speed on the female side. He has a maiden win at Ellis Park on the Dirt. His Breeders Cup dirt effort was a non effort. His Derby was a good race he was clearly making a move going into the turn and probably would have run 2nd or 3rd if Danza wouldn’t have cut him off. Enters fresh after 5 weeks off and I expect a big effort from this guy.
Ride On Curlin is the Pride of Ellis Park and he finally put it all together int he Preakness Stakes, making a strong move to get into contention from the rear of the pack and then was out-quickened by California Chrome at the top of the stretch. John R Velasquez will be his 5th jockey in 5 races. This Curlin Baby is now zero for 8 in stakes races. He is one of 3 horses who will be running in all 3 triple crown races this year. General A Rod and California Chrome the other two. Not sure how much he can improve and most likely will regress in the Belmont. I will not be using him in my Exactas.
General A Rod will be running in all 3 races. Never fired in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Race was a little flat before getting stopped going into the turn and losing all momentum. Picked up the pace late and is another who may be near the lead early if the pace is slow. The talent is somewhere, but at this point, trying to guess a running style and fitness level after last 2 races is just guessing. Odds should be high and usable in Trifectas and Superfectas at long odds.
Samraat is the New York Bred – who doesn’t know where he was bred. This guy has had a long winter and spring campaign. Ran widest of the contenders int he Kentucky Derby and was near the pace early and late, one of the few horses that can say that. Has went wire to wire in the past and I think he will be on the lead int he Belmont Stakes. If he is capable of slowing down the fractions to 1:14 or slower, he could take them a long way. This guy is very competitive – liked the way he measured Uncle Sigh and then rallied down the stretch in the Wood. A slow and uncontested pace would help his chances the most. Fast Pace and not sure if he has the punch to hang with California Chrome, Tonalist and Wicked Strong. The Proverbial “Not Bred to get the distance” applies to Sammy!
Wicked Strong is the horse that may be sitting on the most improvement and the biggest race. His Wood was a strong win and he had a grinding style that day. His Derby was compromised by wide trip and he bumped Candy Boy pretty hard, but it also cost him a little when he bumped him. Also was hampered down the lane. Skipped the Preakness and is back home where he has run his most competitive races. Seems to have gained weight in recent weaks and looked really strong in a one mile gallop last week. Has run close to the pace and rallied from the middle of the pack. Has the speed to stay within distance and looms large with a half mile to go. His natural grinding style and latent speed from his debut second and maiden win going wire to wire are still present. Capable of winning.
Tonalist is a horse I have been watching since his maiden win at Gulfstream Park. I liked the way he really lowered his head at the end of the race – after he was winning and really strided out at the finish line. Tapits seem to relish the slop so the Peter Pan was a handy win. The impressive effort in the Peter Pan was the way he went to the lead after starting slow. He rushed up on command and did not stop – at that point the jockey just let him run on his own ability. Trainer has the ability to win long distance races on the grass and the female side of this pedigree says 12 furlong should not be an issue. This is one of the few horses who have the talent to still be improving. Capable of improving off effort from 2 back and would like an off track. I do not expect him on the lead in this race, but expect him to be in the top flight of horses and is capable of making a quick move if that opens itself up at the half mile pole. Has the speed, has the distance capability. Not sure if he is ready to go head and head with Chrome for 4 furlongs and look him in the eye.
Pace:
As always pace has the potential to decide who wins the Belmont Stakes. I’m expecting a slow pace. A pace faster than 1:12 would benefit California Chrome.
The Selection:
California Chrome enters as the fastest, most consistent. But if you are looking at a horse with an upset chance. Medal Count was running in the Derby, has a win on the dirt at Ellis Park and seems to be training well. His running style should have him within 7 lengths and has the Dynaformer pedigree to make a long sustained move like Drosselmeyer, Summer Bird or Palace Malice.
Chrome is the Best Horse
Medal Count is the Bet!
Tonalist and Wicked Strong have Puncher’s Chances if Chrome doesn’t run his best race.