The “Million” is an annual tradition in the midwest. Overall the card is highly underrated in terms of “Big” days in horse racing on an annual basis. This year’s field is competitive from a betting standpoint and has the defending champion in the field. If the horses show up with their “A” games this should be a solid race.
The Skinny:
The Magician won the Breeder’s Cup Turf and the 10 furlong distance is probably his “best” distance. Gets his regular jockey in the saddle. Best race is a stalking trip and make a mid race move.
Up With the Birds is a personal favorite of mine and a horse who I have been watching for quite a while. Showed major talent on the lawn as a 3-year-old. Last race unleashed a powerful rally down the lane at Woodbine. Stepping up in class. But I think this guy is the real deal. He is a major player and a win here would solidify him as a top distance horse in North America. Has the ability to close into slow fractions and seems to handle all types of turf courses. Runs best when he unleashes “one” powerful move.
Real Solution is the defending champ and ran a solid race in last year’s race. Was slow to gain form this year but picked up a win in the last race which has come back with some winners from that field. Overall he seems to have missed a few key works and doesn’t seem to be coming into the race at 100%. In a race like this, missing a work or even missing a few days training can make the difference between winning and losing.
Smoking Sun has great connections, solid pedigree and the distance should suit his running style. May be forced to be closer to the pace and may not get the “cover” that he needs to unleash a quick move. Proven 10 furlong horse and more upside to fire a big race than Side Glance or Finnegans Wake.
Betting Strategy:
Up With the Birds is my choice and can be used in multi-race wagers and is a solid win/place/show bet. Fair Odds 5/1. Expecting a big race from this guy.
The Magician is the logical alternative with some upside and his overall form is better than many of the horses in this field. His top race wins this. Fair Odds 7/2. Use as “B” horse in multi-race tickets.