American Pharoah looms large as the favorite in the final Kentucky Derby Prep at Oaklawn Park for 2015.
The Skinny:
The Truth or Else draws inside and hopefully gets a fast track for 3rd start in 2015. Deep closer fits with everyone in this race except for American Pharoah. Look for a more patient ride and rally from dead last. In the Rebel he was placed forwardly and had strange trip. With better luck can run 2nd. 1 for 9 lifetime record is hard to endorse on top.
Mr. Z is America’s favorite Non Winner of 2. It’s been a long time since he has seen the winners circle and comes off a last place finish 2 weeks ago. Worked again this week and seems a strange spot to get him back in the win column. Still has a class edge over many of these and enough speed to get in position. Has lost 10 straight races after winning debut.
Bridgets Big Luvy steps up in class after the big win last out. Looks overmatched and hard to endorse at the distance and this class level. Slow fractions and weak field make last race look better on “Paper” than it was.
Madefromlucky chased American Pharoah around the track in the Rebel and dug in down the stretch to finish 2nd. Ships back from Florida but I think he regresses at 9 furlongs and dry track and better rides should help The Truth or Else or Bold Conquest. May have peaked in last race. Grinding style will keep him in the hunt, but ultimately falls short.
Bold Conquest has recorded 2 strong works with some nice gallops since the Rebel and may be sitting on a performance that can have him finish 2nd or 3rd and qualify for the Kentucky Derby Starting gate. Moved too soon last time and missed some training time going into that race. Chance to complete the exacta.
American Pharoah – the 2-year-old Champion is bigger, faster and stronger than this field. Dominated the field last race and ships in for the big purse. Should be on the lead and likely unchallenged for the lead unless Mr. Z goes and causes some havoc. Needs a little dirty work to toughen himself up for the derby and look for gallop out if he does not get challenged to “leg” him up for Kentucky. Fast – Fit and top dog in this race.
Far Right is a deep closer as of late and went inside to pick up the wins in the last 2 races. Not sure he can compete with some “New Shooters” in this race and has a light work tab since the last race. Only 3 published works in March and April combined.
Win the Space entered to fill out the field and is in over his head. Still a maiden.
Fair Odds:
American Pharoah 3/5.
The Choice – American Pharoah towers over this field. Most likely to win. Straight exactas. over Bold Conquest and The Truth or Else.