The 4th and final prep in the well-designed Arkansas road to Louisville concludes with 4 horses coming backing and facing each other for the 3rd time. The rivalry continues with Ride On Curlin, Strong Mandate and Tapiture. Bayern comes into the race looking to punch his ticket to Kentucky.
Ride on Curlin is the likeable son of Curlin who became the pride of Ellis Park with his monster win last summer. This guy has taken the road well traveled with runs at Churchill, New York and this spring at Oaklawn Park. His best race was in the Champagne when he went to the rear of the pack in a fast paced race and made a solid run going into the turn and was outfinished late. His last race was better than looked on paper fighting on the pace the whole race making multiple moves against Strong Mandate. He did have the inside track that day, but raced on gamely after finally putting that one away and galloped out strong. Hearty runner likes a fight and if any of the the top runners slip he is capable of picking up the pieces.
Strong Mandate is now zero for four at distances of one mile or greater. His best win was a maiden win on a quick turn-around on a send job at Saratoga. His second win was a slop-induced 9 length win in a watered down Grade 1. Will the Real Strong Mandate show-up on a fast track with a contested pace? So far he hasn’t shown the speed to separate from the field early and his lone attempt to come from behind was not a success. Faces more pace pressure from Bayern in this race. Could get dream trip from 2nd place. Ultimately I’m not sure he wants 9 furlongs. Does get a jockey switch to Luis Saez. Has run well from outside post.
Tapiture has never run a bad race and this non-gray Tapit seems to have inherited the speed, and heartiness from the female side and Olympio. This home-bred rocked the Southwest with an inside trip and drew off to the big victory. In the Rebel he was a pocket rocket waiting to explode. Was locked and loaded going into the turn, then waited running room entering the stretch. Ultimately he played bumper cars late with Hoppertunity and then galloped out with authority in a good effort. Joel “The Truth” Rosario rides for the first time and should sit 2nd or 3rd for the first half mile before going after possible pace-setter Bayern. Tactical speed has ensured a good trip every race and 9 furlongs should be within reach. A solid effort should send him to Louisville.
Tapiture breezes five-eighths in company in 1:00.80 second set at #Oaklawn, with final quarter in 23.20 and out six in 1:13, per clockers.
— Mary Rampellini (@DRFRampellini) March 31, 2014
Bayern is the wild-card. Brings a 2 for 2 record and comes from a talented group of West Coast horses. This guy comes from a 4K sire and was purchased for 300K. Works have been strong his entire career. His maiden win at 7 furlongs has proven a key race with multiple winners exiting that race and moving up in class and distance. His allowance race was a race that looked good on paper. His two main challengers broke slow and were rank, so he inherited an easy lead at the half mile and drew off in impressive fashion after a soft second quarter. Contested pace today ensures a contested pace and will have to put away possibly two to three speeds in this race to come away victorious. Missed a week of training and skipped the San Felipe for this spot. Recent works have been right on schedule. Likely favorite but hard to take to short a price on a horse stretching out in distance facing multiple horses who can contest for the pace. This is a win or finish 2nd race for him to go to Louisville. Drew inside of Strong Mandate and may force his hand to stay inside and establish position.
Conquest Titan is the closer everyone wants from this crop with a proven come from behind win at Churchill Downs with a distance pedigree. The problem is he only has 9 Derby Trail points and needs to finish first or 2nd in this race to make the gate at Churchill Downs. His Holy Bull 2nd was with a wide trip and rallied down the lane to pass multiple winners that day. Was flat in Tampa Bay Derby when lone speed went wire to wire and he was closer to the pace and finished flat down the stretch. Intentions have been made clear, he will go to the back and try to make one run, hopefully slingshotting into the turn in this race and short Oaklawn stretch. New jockey is Calvin Borel who is not having a good meet and record has been spotty the past few year’s in big races. Needs the pace to be fast and contested to have a realistic shot at contention. Or needs to jump up about 5 lengths in ability. Been in training for a long time. Talent is there. My guess is he puts in a solid run from behind if the track is playing fair Saturday.
Commissioner is an exact clone of Drosselmeyer a few year’s back. Same owners. Solid pedigree, but he is not fast enough to stay with top class horses and has not speed late. He is the ultimate plodder. He lost a shoe in the Sunland Derby, but his closing punch was non-existent. Comes back on a quick turn-around in search of a 3rd place effort. But looks 5th best to me from a handicapping standpoint. Maybe like Drosselmeyer he does his best running in the Belmont Stakes.
Thundergram is stepping up in class. Barn-mate of Conquest Titan has some speed and is not really a rabbit in this spot as there is plenty of speed and pace pressure in the race. Not fast enough to compete at this level, but still improving a few ticks in his speed figures. Should run his race and in case something silly happens ensure a moderate pace. With 6 lifetime races and no recent changes to predict uptick in performance. Not likely to win.
Danza is a lightly raced son of Street Boss who had one prep in a fast Gulfstream race. The winner Anchor Down was injured out of that race but went to the sidelines with a 2/2 record. The 2nd place finisher Myositis Dan came back with a romp at Keeneland last week. Rallied in 2nd career start. Mare side is precocious. Street Boss brings some speed to the table. Has faced small fields. Would need to bring career best and relish the distance to pick up the victory.
The Pace:
Bayern has the speed to go to the lead. Strong Mandate likes to run on the front end. A pace duel could dcvelop and Strong Mandate is battle tested. Ride on Curlin has enough speed to lay close as does Tapiture. Expecting a big effort from Strong Mandate today to put away Bayern, But Tapiture will be breathing down his neck late.
The Choice:
I’m siding Tapiture as the horse likely to benefit from a fast and contested pace. Horse has really matured the last couple of races and the longer distance should have him less rank. Big work tab and Jockey switch makes him the one to beat. Conquest Titan should be rolling late and the push will be hard to finish 2nd.