Aidan O’Brien Breeder’s Cup Classic Runners
- Overall Record 0/17
- 2 – second place finishes – Giant’s Causeway & Henrythenavigator
- 1 – third place finish – Declaration of War
Below are past performances of all Aidan O’Brien runners in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. Also included are Sahkee, who ran second in the Classic, and Raven’s Pass, who won the Classic on a synthetic surface. I also included some of my pedigree notes and racing patterns of many of the runners as they entered the Breeder’s Cup Classic.
Summary:
- Grade One Class is important
- Recent winning form is beneficial
- All-turf pedigrees and those heavily influenced by top European turf runners have run below form.
- Respect the odds; if the horse is a long-price, they have not exceeded expectations.
- Turf Milers have not performed well at the classic ten-furlong distance of the Breeder’s Cup Classic.
Let’s examine past performances and get a feel for the City of Troy’s attempt to win the Breeder’s Cup Classic in 2024.
2000 – Giant’s Causeway
The “Iron Horse” Giant’s Causeway was the first Aiden O’Brien runner to attempt the Breeders Cup Classic. He was battle-tested and a six-time G1 winner. Sent off at 7/1 odds in the Classic, he was near the pace and dueled with Tiznow, who ran the race of his career and had a hall-of-fame ride from Chris McCarron.
Giant’s Causeway was by a proven “American” dirt sire in Storm Cat out of a Rahy mare. The pedigree, race record, and distance suited him that year, and he lost a photo finish to Tiznow.
Giant’s Causeway ran a “winning” race, the benchmark you are looking for, with a horse making his first start on the Dirt in “America’s Richest Race.”
2001 – Black Minnaloushe
Black Minnaloushe was a two-time G1 winner and had run all 10 of his previous starts on the turf. His pedigree was by Storm Cat, out of a Green Dancer mare. He was going off form, and it seemed like the Breeder’s Cup Classic was an afterthought; he was sent off at 51/1 odds and was never involved in the race. The female side of the family added a lot of turf influences.
2001 – Galileo
Galileo was highly regarded and entered the race at 3/1 odds as the second favorite. He ran evenly, passing a few horses late in the race. He entered with wins in the Irish Derby and Epsom Derby, and he also won the King George. He was second to the durable Fantastic Light in the Irish Champion Stakes. He was by Sadler’s Wells, who excelled with turf runners. His pedigree leaned heavily towards the turf with few dirt influences.
Sahkee 2nd – S. Bin Suroor
Tiznow became the first and only back-to-back Breeder’s Cup Classic winner. Defeating Sahkee in an exciting stretch battle. Sahkee had turf breeding on both sides of the pedigree. The sire was Bahr, and the broodmare sire was Sadler’s Wells. He was seven for ten lifetimes, including wins in the Arc, the Juddmonte International, and the listed stakes race. He was a classic distance horse and entered the Breeder’s Cup Classic on a three-race winning streak. Suroor Saeed trained him.
This was an example of a G1 horse with a turf pedigree who entered in top form and was tested at the classic distances.
2002 – Hawk Wing
Hawk Wing was a two-time G1 winner. He entered with nine career starts, four wins, and five seconds—the sire Woodman did sire Preakness and Belmont Stakes winner Hansel. Hawk Wing was best at seven furlongs to one mile. He had the class, but that class was for one mile on the turf. He ran second in the Irish Champion Stakes and Epson Derby. Hawk Wing was never a factor. He broke slowly and ran evenly. The longshot Volponi won the race at 43/1.
2003 – Hold That Tiger
Hold that Tiger was a G1 winner who prepped in the Woodward Stakes, running second his first time on Dirt, and the Beyer speed figure was 110; he lost to the brilliant Mineshaft that year. He was by Storm Cat out of a Caveat mare. He had the dirt pedigree but was zero for four in 2003 coming into the Classic; his best race was the Woodward; he ran a fast race off a long layoff, which may have caught up to him in the Breeder’s Cup Classic that year. He ran fifth in the Classic, losing by seven lengths. Congaree set a pace of 1:10.32 for six furlongs, and Hold That Tiger was chasing that pace. This was a reasonable effort, and in most years, this would have resulted in a top-four finish.
2005 – Oratorio
Oratorio was a three-time G1 winner and lifetime winner of six for fourteen; he also added lasix for his Classic run. He performed his best one mile and did most of his running on good and yielding going. This was a long shot, and Danehill overall was a turf sire; the female family added more turf influences. He did win the Irish Champion Stakes and Eclipse Stakes and added Lasix for the Breeder’s Cup. This sprinter/miler type may not have been at his best on Breeder’s Cup Day.
2006 – George Washington
Another son of Danehill who shipped over and faced one of the deepest classic fields with Invasor and Bernardini. He was six for nine, with his best win the Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He was lightly raced in his three-year-old campaign and may have had some minor issues in missing some of the traditional summer and fall races.
2007 – George Washington
Sadly, he broke down in some of the harshest racing conditions in Breeder’s Cup history. It rained all day at Monmouth Park. He entered the Classic in 2007, off three losses, and was not at the same level of ability as in 2006. This was an ill-advised attempt to win the Classic, and the track conditions were terrible.
2008 – Duke of Marmalade
He was an experienced four-year-old who entered with sixteen-lifetime starts, including wins in the Juddmonte International and the King George Stakes. He had recent solid form and was a steady-distance horse. Magnier and Tabor were convinced a son of Danehill could win on the Dirt, but it was not meant to be.
2008 – Henrythenavigator
Synthetic –
Henrythenavigator was another with racing class. His best distances were at one mile, and many dismissed him based on a pedigree that leaned to the turf and the one-mile distance. He was outsprinted in the final eighth by Raven’s Pass. He over-achieved and ran a good race, but ultimately, he was defeated by a classier European trained by John Gosden.
2008 winner Raven’s Pass
When John Gosden points for a race, he does not miss often, and he had Raven’s Pass ready for the 2008 Breeder’s Cup. Taking advantage of the synthetic surface, he kicked clear late, defeating Henrythenavigator. Raven’s Pass entered the Classic with two straight wins and two seconds, reversing a tough loss to Henrythenavigator in the Sussex Stakes and St. James Place. He was a classy horse, and he received a heady ride.
2009 – Rip Van Winkle
Rip Van Winkle was defeated by the brilliant Zenyatta on the synthetic surface at Santa Anita. He entered with a Grade One win in the Sussex Stakes. Rip Van Winkle was not a multiple-stakes winner; the sire was Galileo, who was unsuccessful in the Classic. It was a reach to enter Rip Van Winkle in the Classic, and he was one of the weaker O’Brien entries in the Breeder’s Cup Classic. He was not a top-class G1 winner, and he had distance limitations.
2011 – So You Think
The entry of So You Think as a world traveler at the classic distances. This is an example of a turf horse with a pedigree and long-distance aptitude. He received some support at the betting windows and ran evenly on class alone but was never a threat to win. He entered the Classic with twelve lifetime wins in 19 starts with four second-place finishes.
2013 – Declaration of War
War Front sired Declaration of War, another top-class sire that Tabor and Magnier tried to win the Classic with. Declaration of War won the Juddmonte International and the Queen Anne Stakes, both G1 races. He was another attempt at getting a “turf miler” to go ten furlongs on the Dirt.
2015 – Gleneagles
Gleneagles was a three-time G1 turf performer and won the St. James Palace Stakes, the Irish 2000 Guineas, and the Qipco Guineas. His prep race was a sixth-place finish in the G1 Queen Elizabeth Stakes. He was a world-class miler with a turf pedigree, another Galileo, who was entered in a Grade One race at Ten Furlongs. He was out of his element based on distance, and his European kick at one mile was not suited for an American ten-furlong race.
2017 – War Decree
War Degree entered and was lightly raced with only six career starts, a G2 and G3 winner; he was moving up in class to the G1 level and making his first start on Dirt. The sire War Front is another proven “turf” sire who has failed to get a proven G1 dirt horse. War Decree was taking a class jump, and his running style was not suited for ten furlongs; his pedigree was more suited for the turf overall. He was sent off at 44/1 by the betting public, with his race record indicating more speed and his class level a cut below some of the other O’Brien Classic runners.
2017 – Churchill
Churchill was the more regarded class of the 2017 runners. He was a two-time G1 winner, and Magnier and Tabor entered him in hopes of achieving that elusive G1 dirt win with the son of Galileo. Ridden by Ryan Moore, Churchill finished 9th, losing over eighteen lengths. He was not suited for the turf, and the pedigree indicated this may be true. He was 20/1 in the betting.
Mendelssohn – 2018
Mendelssohn was a proven dirt performer 2018 when attempting the Breeder’s Cup Classic. He had finished second in the Travers Stakes, third in the Dwyer Stakes, and third in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. He won the G2 UAE Derby and was a three-year-old taking on older horses. Mendelssohn did his best running on the Dirt. Most of the O’Brien runners in the Breeder’s Cup Classic have been exclusively turf horses.
City of Troy
City of Troy represents a blend of what has worked in the Breeder’s Cup Classic, with a few question marks.
The Breeder’s Cup Classic would be City of Troy’s first race on Dirt
City of Troy enters on a three-race win streak, including the Juddmonte International. Horses coming into the Classic after the Juddmonte International have run well.
This was a positive angle for Sahkee and Giant’s Causeway, who finished second in the Breeder’s Cup Classic after winning the Juddmonte International.
City of Troy is by Justify, a Triple Crown winner on the Dirt, and has sired Just F Y I, who did not develop as expected as a three-year-old in 2024.
Top Progeny by Justify includes mainly turf horses in Opera Singer, Hard to Justify, Aspen Grove, Storm Boy, and Learning to Fly. The top runners for Justify have mostly been turf performers, and some have had distance limitations. Arabian Lion was best at seven furlongs. Another two-year-old who did not train forwardly going longer was Verifying, and he was best at seven furlongs to one mile.
The female family includes several exclusive turf sires, including Galileo, Sadler’s Wells, Theatrical, Nureyev, and Blushing Groom.
From a sporting standpoint, City of Troy adds a lot of Intrigue to the 2024 Breeder’s Cup Classic, but as the early favorite at low odds, we need to evaluate him more closely as we approach the first Saturday in November.