An over-fill field of horses has targeted the Bluegrass Stakes in 2014. Some crazy upsets and strange fractions and running styles have populated this field the last few years. Street Sense and Dullahan, are a couple of horses who have used this as a prep to finish in the money in Louisville. All the entrants are currently short of making the derby on points. So top 2 positions will be jockeying for possible Derby starts. Since All Weather Surface installed – favorites are zero for seven.
Bobby’s Kitten is the proven class. Runs a solid race every time. Opened his career with a tough loss and then came back with back to back wins in a maiden race and the Pilgrim stakes. Best races have been on the engine and has done well with fast fractions and slow fractions. In the Breeder’s Cup he set fast fractions and yielded late to quality European opposition. Nobody in this field fits that mold. Bobby’s Kitten has been pointed to a 2-race campaign all spring. His comeback win was an easy spot at Tampa Baby, setting the pace and rating nicely in the facile score over the talented Global View. Solid workout tab since last race. Progeny of Kitten’s Joy love the polytrack at Keeneland. Distance and surface should not be an issue. Expecting a big race. This is his Golden Ticket to the Kentucky if he can finish in the top 2. Below is the workout last week by Bobby on the Poly. A Prrrrrfect work. Stay Calm and Buy a Kitten’s Joy!
Casiguapo makes his first start since a disappointing sprint race at Gulfstream back in early February. May have peaked as a juvenile as he regressed the latter half of 2013. Bargain purchase for 5K has earned over 287,000 and growing. Running style suggests he may come off the pace in this race.
Big Bazinga comes in off a Spiral Stakes start and finished evenly after running behind the leaders early in the race and tucking in towards the rail coming into the stretch. Was outrun late in that race and not sure if he is ready to take on some classy turf and All Weather horses in this race. Longshot.
Dance With Fate has been banging heads on the west coast with Tamarando and came up a head short at Golden Gate in the El Camino Real Stakes. Running style has been that of a closer and has the ability to press the pace. Faces tougher horses and deep field of horses. May be overmatched in this field with some proven All Weather surface ability and not sure if I want to take a low price in a race with a full field.
Coltimus Prime disappointed in the Tampa Bay Derby, but goes back to preferred surface. Showed talent and speed at Woodbine as a juvenile and is capable of improving on the 2nd start of form cycle. Ultimately may be prepping for bigger things North of the border. Possibly part of the pace but prefer others to set the pace. Should finish in top half of field.
Extrasexyhippszter was overmatched in Gotham Stakes and on paper looks over-matched in this race. The Laurel/Park/Delaware form is not holding up well in the Derby preps this season. Can’t endorse. I’m not sure why he is in this race.
Harry’s Holiday was originally going to train up to the Kentucky Derby, but with points being needed to make the race, they are forced to enter the Bluegrass looking for a 4th place or better finish. Outran his odds in most recent race and adds some speed and pace pressure. Last race was a big effort on Turfway surface. Now goes up in class. Hard to imagine him in the top 4 with this group of horses.
Divine Oath is undefeated with two nice wins on the turf. Last race rallied into a furious pace winning with a big closing rush down the lane. If the pace is hot and collapses this guy will be running late. Would not be a complete surprise to see him in the winners circle and fits better than some of the horses in this race. Currently on the Also Eligible list looking in.
Pablo Del Monte is 2 for 2 at Keeneland. Disappointed with a soft winter campaign. Has been knocking heads with Wildcat Red and General A Rod in his past performances. Talented runner last fall has had bizarre schedule. Shipped West for a Turf race. Ran in dirt races. Went to Ocala. Not much of a game plan but back on surface where he has shown speed and won a couple of races. Look for an improved effort and is intriguing on this surface at a price.
Asserting Bear finished a competitive 4th in the Spiral Stakes. Rough trip in that race getting shuffled back on the turn, then making a move entering the stretching and diving to the inside and was running late to complete the Super. Best races have been on the All Weather surface and with 2 prep races may be able to go back to a career top in this race. Fits on class and distance should not be a problem. Solid distance horse names are in the pedigree in Assert and Lemon Drop Kid. Still has some upside.
Gala Award goes to the All Weather surface with 3 straight solid turf efforts. His last race on a fast, front-running turf course he won a thrilling stretch run in the Palm Beach over a game Mr. Speaker. Big price tag as a September purchase for 1.5 million dollars. Palm Beach has been a productive Turf to poly prep over the years and running style suggests he can force the pace or sit right off the pace. Second most likely winner to Bobby’s Kitten and in with a big chance. Post position draw did him no favors. May have to use some early zip to establish position.
Coastline is a son of Speighstown who have done well on the Synthetic surface. Woke up in his last race in the Spiral Stakes and while finish 3rd pressed the pace with a 3-wide trip in slow time. His Oaklawn races were sub-par and not sure if he improved in last race or faced a lower quality of horses. But he has shown ability at times as a juvenile and should like the poly. Hard to toss and his running style puts him at a disadvantage with Gala Award and Bobby’s Kitten with proven speed and proven class. Still think he makes some money this summer running in a lot of Derby’s.
Medal Count wheels back in the Bluegrass on a one-week turn-around after dominating the washed off the turf Transylvania Stakes on opening day. Horse has talent. Distance pedigree and he seems to like the surface. Won in-hand last week and skipped over the surface. Tough post position but may be able to come right back with a top 3 finish. One of the top contenders.
Vinceramos is a son of Pioneerof the Nile has shown grit and determination in all 4 career starts. His debut race came in a rainstorm at Gulfstream where he chased a front-running slop monster. In his second race he took the lead in midstretch and then kind of waited late while shortening stride and holding on to the victory. At Tampa Bay he rode the rail to an upset victory in a strange race. The fractions were moderate at Tampa Bay in the Sam F Davis, but he slipped through on the rail when the speed contested and weakened into to the turn. Taking the lead he looked like he was home and several horses came running late and he snagged the victory. In the Tampa Bay Derby he chased the front-runner Ring Weekend around the track and held off Conquest Titan and Surfing USA down the stretch. Recent works indicate fitness and his sire was very strong on the synthetic surface. Speed Figures are on the slow side, but the move to poly neutralizes that. Possible he could improve in this spot.
The Pace:
Bobby’s Kitten does his best running dictating the pace and letting his class take him to the lead and letting others chase. Turf races as a juvenile were slow fractions against other horses who could not keep up. Gala Award will stalk as a presser, but post position hurts. Coastline is capable of showing speed on this surface. Pace could get contested. A contested pace at Keenelaland poly usually results in favoring closers.
The Choice:
Favorites are a very poor bet in Graded Stakes Races and in the Bluegrass since going to Polytrack. But Bobby’s Kitten looks like the play, based on class, speed and form and should like the distance. This is his prep to make the derby and assume they are all in. Expecting a big effort from Bobby’s Kitten. Gala Award deserves an upset change. Next Group of horses is Pablo Del Monte, Coastline, and Asserting Bear.