The story coming into the Risen Star is how would post position affect the order of finish among the 6 horses coming back from the Risen Star. The Louisiana Derby was a science experiment on the effect of post position on order of finish.
In the Risen Star – Vicar’s In Trouble had the 13th post position. Albano drew the rail. Albano seized the moment and went for the lead, slowing down the fractions and losing in the final strides to Intense Holiday. Vicar’s In Trouble was taken back out of the gate, made a mid race move to approach the lead going into the turn and faded late while being eased a little late.
In the Louisiana Derby Albano drew the 10 hole. Vicar’s In Trouble drew the 6th post position and Intense Holiday drew inside. Albano came out of the gate clean and raced 5 wide down the backstretch. Vicar’s In Trouble took the lead out of the gate and went inside near the rail. Vicar was aggressive and took command of this race down the backstretch. He was on an uncontested lead when In Trouble decided to rate while running wide. Rise Up for some reason still thinks he’s at Delta Downs. He was no factor.
With Vicar’s steadily pounding the pavement uncontested down the backstretch, In Trouble backed out. Albano was wide. Commanding Curve was pinched at the start and dropped back to last while saving ground. Intense Holiday waited until the 6 furlong mark and made his rally and was in 2nd place entering the stretch, lost his action and finished evenly.
Meanwhile Vicar’s In Trouble made the lead into the turn, came back to the field and then drew away down the lane. This was an exact same trip of the Lecomte. Vicar’s In Trouble also missed some training time coming into this race. The lemon has not been squeezed on this son of Into Mischief and will be another to watch train up to the race.
Commanding Curve got untracked going into the turn and split horses and was rolling late, but much too late and finished with interest in 3rd place.
Vicar’s In Trouble has now run 3 strong races in his last 4 and in the only loss was rated while running wide out of the 13th hole. Intense Holiday has finished in the money in 3 straight races and may be best as a stone cold closer waiting until the turn to make his move. Commanding Curve is improving but will need a lot of defections to make the starting gate, but does have a good juvenile foundation and some races at Churchill Downs that are competitive with many of these horses. Commanding Curve also seems to be one of the horses who can rate behind horses and finish down the lane.
Note that Vicar’s used his speed to put away most of these horses today. Several of the winner’s on the trail have used similar speedy tactics to take command and win preps. Someone who takes back still may have the edge in Louisville.
Albano raced wide and evenly throughout and with 34 points has enough “leg” work to make the gate, not sure if he will be a horse to put in a solid run at 10 furlongs and may be better served waiting for the Preakness.
Intense Holiday survives and advances hopefully to another day in Louisville.