Tis the Season to start looking ahead at the Triple Crown run for 2014. The list below in alphabetical order is a roster of horses that have captured my eye in 2013. To make my list, it’s 40% visual, 40% breeding and 20% showing above average ability in any particular race. My list is the Reggie Jackson method, you can’t strike out unless you take a big swing. I don’t rank them until February because at this point it’s more about projecting who has the solid juvenile base with distance potential and how the racing profile shapes up in the spring. More than likely the Derby runner has run in 2013.
Not a big fan of the “new” shooter theory in January. What happens if a horse debuts in January is they are forced to run 4 races in 5 months and it’s just not that simple. A horse can be a maiden going into January but having a race in 2013 will be a major plus. Also at this point Talent trumps Ability. Speed is also a “latent” skill, meaning a horse who has run fast at some point is always dangerous to cycle back to the big race within a couple of starts.
Bobby’s Kitten:
His Breeder’s Cup turf effort was outstanding, setting fast fractions and getting run down late on the turf by two superior Europeans. The speed will come in handy as many of the dirt horses have not shown any speed in this years crop. Bobby will prep for the Derby in the Bluegrass basically making it a one shot chance to run first or second to get into the Derby. Kitten’s Joys love the poly and Bobby already has proven the class. Kitten’s Joys have proven versatile. Class, Speed, and pedigree Bobby fits all the conditions of a horse to watch.
Cairo Prince
Losing the Remsen will be a benefit for this son of Pioneerofthenile. Undefeated horses get “babied” and by losing by one inch, he goes into 2014 with less expectations. Cairo burst into my Stable Mail with an impressive victory in his first start. Showing speed from the opening bell he went wire to wire on pure talent never being asked, easily one of the most impressive maiden efforts of 2013. His Nashua win was a combination of patience while running 3-wide for a half mile, used his speed to open up by 7 lengths with an impressive move going into the turn and then being geared down late. The Remsen race was the strangest race I have seen in years for 2 year olds. The fractions were pedestrian and the race became a 3 furlong sprint to the wire. It did prove that Cairo could rate off the speed and the long term benefit to Cairo will be that he has a 9 furlong race and a 3 races in 2012 and the Remsen was not a knock-down drawn out affair and got the benefit of the conditioning without the “pain” of a hard race.
Candy Boy
Candy Boy broke his maiden in his 4th attempt, but really moved forward in starts 3 and 4. Does not have the explosive potential many on this list but has a strong foundation and with 4 starts, will be able to come off the layoff with a couple of starts and point for one big effort to get eligible for the derby.
Coastline
Stumbled at the start of Delta Jackpot and had no chance after making mid race move. Two impressive victories at Churchill Downs for this son of Speightstown. Horse is built well and has positional speed to be involved early, long term 9 furlongs may be his ceiling. His speed and tracking ability will keep him forwardly place in any prep race. Look for possible Oaklawn appearance in 2014.
Coup De Grace
One race, one win, but ultra impressive, was geared down late and only one race in 2013, but the raw potential makes this one to watch for 2014.
Conquest Titan
Impressive wide running move late at Churchill Downs on closing day added this horse to my Stable Mail. Throw out Breeders Cup Turf race when he was forced to chase fast pace. Has wins on Poly, expensive sale horse has speed and conditioning another who may use the Bluegrass as his hole card to get into the gate.
Divine View
Circling mid race move at Churchill Downs for this Larry Jones trained son of obscure stallion Divine Force. Limited runners but they seem to like Churchill Downs. Will winter at Fairgrounds. Just one race, but visually impressive and made the kind of move which you can build on in future races.
Fantastic Vow
Broke his maiden with a come from behind win at Keeneland when every race was won by closers. Defeated some well meant horses that day and Broken Vow has proven he can sire some class horses. William Hickey trains and will winter in Tampa. Like the fact they broke the maiden and then gave him 40 days off, back on the work tab and had a long string of works going into his Keeneland maiden race.
Green Mask
Most dominating maiden win at the entire Keeneland meet. Was hammered at the windows and won by 5 lengths and looked like a sure thing every step of the Keeneland stretch in Debut. Shipped to California and was flat the entire race, and was taken in hand late in the race. Was asked to ship, switch to a different poly surface and just never seemed into the race at Hollywood. Tossing that effort, a horse can’t be that good in debut and that bad in 2nd race.
Gold Hawk
Closing day at Churchill broke diploma with strong effort, beat some highly regarded runners and some strong pedigrees. Strong work tab, only has one race will winter at Fairgrounds.
Honor Code:
Pedigree is top notch. Champion Serena’s Song is in 3rd generation, and is son of stakes running producer. Half brother Noble Tune was a promising runner last winter and spring. Substitute Unbridled Song who is the sire of Noble Tune and thrown in A. P. Indy and you get more distance, more soundness, and more late development all things that bode well for 2014. The Remsen proved that he can grind with the best of them and never stopped running. Maiden breaker in slop was impressive, but field stopped and he had the rail run. His Champagne loss was a wide late run. Still has to prove he can lay within 7 lengths of an honest pace. Has proven he can run inside horses and outside horses. But running at Gulfstream would be a major mistake. Gulfstream plays heavy to speed and his running style is not conducive to a highway, I expect they will ship out of town for his prep races, possibly wood or Louisiana Derby for final prep.
Indianapolis
Won as a sure thing in debut at Hollywood Park. Trained by Bob Baffert and owned Tabor and Magnier. Impressive maiden win comes with one caveat. His front left leg was paddling noticeably late in the race on the poly, from past experience this is not a good sign, lots of talent, but his career may not be a long one. Sire is Medaglio doro out of a Beau Genius mare. Distance predigree and running style in debut was off the pace by design. If he can take the beating of the 6 furlong workouts has some upside.
Kristo
Sales purchase price of 500K. Broken maiden in 3rd career start. Distorted Humors develop fast but with 3 races has strong juvenile form, on the bench since the maiden breaker. Will winter out West, but speed is always dangerous in spring preps.
Kobe’s Back
Sprint Pedigree, but very fast. Geared down late in the big loss off the layoff to Shared Belief in the Hollywood Prevue, may ultimately prove to be late running sprinter, but has shown some class and expect a much improved effort in the Cash Call Futurity. Lightly raced and has already shown to be a little fragile, but fast horses are the horses that “tease” the most. Could be the type of horse that wins the Sunland Derby to punch his ticket to the big dance.
Matterhorn
Big debut win at the Big A. Been rested since and will go to Gulfstream to begin his Sophomore campaign. Todd Pletcher trained, expect a big effort off the layoff in first race at Gulfstream and then from that point it’s anyone’s guess. Son of Tapit is a 625K purchase. Tapits do their best running in first 3 or 4 starts. So a 2-prep campaign at three may be the most logical.
New Year’s Day
Breeder’s Cup Juvenile winner was running late in a very slow final quarter. Impressed in 2nd lifetime start while stretching out. Has experience, yet to face any real adversity had very soft trip in maiden win and Breeders Cup enjoyed a rail run while all the speed was tiring.
Noble Moon
Huge maiden win going wire to wire. Broke slow in Nashua and made sweeping move while running wide while Cairo Prince was freaking on the front end. By Malibu Moon, horse seems to want distance and has proven he can run fresh and fast. Trail goes through New York, scratching the morning of Remsen Stakes will force the change of plans to 3 starts at 3. Jerome Stakes on January 4th is on the calendar and Noble Moon will be a strong contender in any of the early winter New York Stakes races.
Pablo Del Monte
Wesley Ward had a rough run of luck out West with Pablo Del Monte and Green Mask. Pablo Del Monte was even more bizarre, ran on the turf out west without any workouts for 21 days listed in the past performances. Very unusual, something must have happened and why they did not scratch after no works is not something I admire, who was calling the shots on running in that race with no works? The race effort was a wide trip and again wrapped up late by jockey Kent D. Showed superior speed at 4 1/2 furlongs at Churchill. Keeneland win again raw speed. Son of Giant’s Causeway should improve at 3. This could be a horse who fits well at Gulfstream with his raw speed. Expect a bounce back effort in Florida if the works are back on track.
Peace Mission
Sneaky win at Belmont showed speed the entire race and won easily while never being asked. Has worked out twice out west since maiden win. Classic Pedigree by Harlan’s Holiday out of Saint Ballado mare. This horse should get better at 3 and has a classy look about him, looks like a router and next race we will see if he can rate.
Protonico
Blew away the field at Delaware by 14 lengths. Worked out a mile twice and then made a mid race move in the Nashua as a longshot. Wide sweeping move in Nashua was misplaced as Cairo Prince was moving at the same time. Giant’s Causeway out of A. P Indy mare. Bred to run all day and has been working up a storm in the morning. This horse was another horse who ran “fast” in debut and has the pedigree to develop.
Purple Sky
Chased Honor Code in debut. Troubled trip in maiden victory at Churchill Downs and then was a no-show in Churchill Downs Allowance race. Wintering at Fairgrounds and expect him to bounce back, first two races were above average. Solid Juvenile form to build upon if good enough in spring of 2014.
Rankhaspriveleges
Son of Einstein made long sustained run at long odds in Keeneland Debut. Wide, sweeping move in Delta Jackpot while making first start on dirt. Has worked since the Delta Loss, has some speed influences on both side of pedigree, have a feeling this horse will make a lot of money in 2014. Seems like a sturdy type and built like a router, has shown flashes of speed and 3rd and 4th start still has room to move up with a top effort.
Schoolofhardrocks
Huge Delmar win, was entered in stakes race at Santa Anita but scratched the day before the race. Stamina influences on both sides of the pedigree. Visually his maiden win was the real deal and has not been on the work tab since being scratched. Assume he starts training in January for a spring campaign. Is behind on development with only one race, but had sharp work tab going into debut and solid works before frontrunner. Big upside for son of Rock Hard Ten out of Royal Academy mare.
Shared Belief
The Real Deal, broke maiden at Golden Gate by 7 lengths, then won the Hollywood Prevue stakes by 7 lengths with a strong final quarter. Ran fast twice now just needs to stretch the speed out in Cash Call Futurity. Classic Pedigree with Candy Ride out of Storm Cat mare. A win in the Cash Call just may make him Juvenile Champion. Having 3 races as a Juvenile allows them to rest and gear up with a 2 or 3 start spring campaign. Jerry Hollendorfer is making all the right calls at this time and working strongly and on cue every 7 days. Long term like the sprint, sprint, route for development.
Strong Mandate
Son of Tiznow with huge effort on loss on Breeders Cup Day. Set 1:09 and change fractions while racing wide. Non effort in Champagne is mysterious, but many Lukas horses have no show performances. Out of stakes winning mare who won multiple races at route distances. Tiznows normally develop later, so Lukas pushed this son of Tiznow hard as a Juvenile. Has proven he can run in the mud, proven he can ship and has bounced back from subpar efforts. Has some “dirty” past performances but goes into 3 Year old campaign with lots of conditioning and proven speed. Oaklawn Park will be his winter home and will make a lot of money
Tap it Rich
Son of Tapit made debut a winning one at Santa Anita close strongly into a collapsing pace made it “appear” better on paper than it was visually. Built like many Tapit’s he’s big, bulky and has a huge chest and engine, but also thick neck and lots of weight means some possible injuries down the road. The Tapits are hard to judge they have big engines, and carry a lot of weight, they are precocious as Juveniles but plateau at three. High priced horse closed late in Breeders Cup Juvenile with strong gallop out, looks like he wants to run all day, runs next in Cash Call should be bet hard in that race. Tough read on this colt.
Tapiture
Statistically horses that take 4 starts to break maiden are not “good” enough to be factors on Derby trail, but some bad rides and tough luck had this son of Tapit finally breaking through at Churchill Downs. Has showed the ability to rate and also has speed. With 4 starts may already have shown his upside but will get tested down in the Fairgrounds in February.
Top Billing
Hat Tip to @insidethenumbers for this rangy son of Curlin out of Stakes winning mare. Split horses and won in slop at distance at Laurel Park. Time was not that great, but he loved the slop and the distance and went between horses on cue. The one race as a Juvenile will be a plus for his development.
Wicked Strong
Chased the speedy well meant Manhatten Johnnie in debut, came back in 2nd win stretching out in 2nd lifetime start. Remsen showed he can rate, but the pace of that race made that a public paid three furlong workout. Horse has been bet at the windows in all three of his races and strong connections for this son of Hard Spun. Has speed and has shown class this pedigree is built for Gulfstream and expect him to run well in Hallandale.
Wry
Broke maiden while running easily in MSW race at Churchill Downs. Broke slow and finished with interest in debut race at Ellis Park looked like a seasoning race. Freshened since maiden breaker and goes into 2014 with 2 starts. Distorted Humor out of High Heels who has produced a couple of stakes winners has the pedigree. Expect him to winter at Oaklawn and show up in the Rebel.