The “Quirky” Tampa Bay Surface will come into play on Saturday with the Sam F. Davis. Highly touted maiden winner Ocean Knight will be the favorite but drew the 11 post in a 12 horse field.
The Skinny:
Catalina Red is a son of Munnings who has turned in back to back “fast” races. He is fit, fast and has raced over the surface. Inside draw and speed will be dangerous in this spot. Will take some beating on the front end. Ultimately I think they catch him.
Royal Son picked up his “maiden” win via DQ, has a grinding style and has raced inside in his 3 races. Draws inside again. Capable of running better, but not sure if he has the raw speed at this distance of 8.5 furlongs.
Ami’s Flatter is sitting on ready with a big 2nd place finish in last race. Recent works are solid and distance and class are in the pedigree. Expecting a big effort and capable of winning.
Crittenden moves from turf to dirt and has dirt breeding. Runs from off the pace and seems to be getting good at the right time. Longshot chance and possibly a little on the slow slide, needs a couple of horses to not fire.
Divining Rod used the last turf race as a “training” race and bounced back with some big works. Breeding says turf and dirt, but has trained well and been bet hard in his races. Fit and ready for a step up in class.
Bandages steps up in class off the maiden win, but appears outclassed and asking a lot to step up against faster, fitter horses.
Brother Bobo opened his career with impressive efforts coming from off the pace, regressed in last race, but fits with this group. Prefer others.
G Five is spotted in a good group, but full field and no advantage on paper is tough to take.
My Johnny Be Good is the now horse. Fast race and galloped in last race with 6F move in 1:09 and change. Last 2 workouts have been 5 and 6 furlongs. Race over the track. Ran 2nd late and really galloped out well at Keeneland. Pedigree and connections are ready to roll.
Ocean Knight draws outside after very visually impressive maiden win in December. Did not have much of a gallop out in that race and was taken in hand late. So not sure how much he got out of the race. Probable favorite is tough to play on new surface, off 7 week layoff and only 1 six furlong race in which he only ran for a quarter-mile. This trainer has had several big maiden winners flop in 2nd career start. Not for me.
Bears Personality invades from Woodbine and should be fit with 4 distance races up North. Presser running style should fit the post position. But week after week the “11” and “12” post positions find ways to lose races.
Fair Odds:
My Johnny Be Good 6/1
Bear’s Personality 10/1
Catalina Red 5/1
Ocean Knight 4/1
Royal Son 6/1
The Choice:
Tough race on paper. Ocean Knight will be over-bet, but he is facing sharp horses. Royal Son is capable of a big race. I’m going with My Johnny Be Good. His last race was a monster and love the 6 Furlong work. He is the horse that will make the move on the turn. If a horse beats My Johnny Be Good, they will be lying down in his stall come Saturday Night. Royal Son and Ami’s Flatter are solid in this spot as well in the exotics.