Thoroughbred Prospectus
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Derbyologist Prospect Rankings – Week 1
- I will give a higher weight to races in 2023. Recency counts. They have to earn it with workouts and races in 2023. The rankings will reflect 2023 performances.
- The rankings will be a mix of Kentucky Derby Future Wager odds and how realistic their chance of making the Kentucky Derby starting gate is.
- Overall I’m looking at talent and horses ready to take the next step in February and March.
- I favor upside in prospects more than certainty, but both have value. Ability is what they have done; the upside is what they might be able to do if they only have one or two career races. Once they are a grade one winner – they have reached the top, they only have a downside for most of them.
- Yes, I watch the races. And yes, I watch your favorite horse.
- Fun and bragging rights are on the line. Picking the favorite to win the derby in February is not much fun. Let’s live a little.
With all that said, let’s dive into Week 1 of the Derby Prospectus Power Rankings for 2023.
#1 Victory Formation dominated the Smarty Jones stakes at Oaklawn Park to start his three-year-old season. The efficient mover has spaced his races for optimum performance. With longer breaks, they opt for fewer races and more time between races. Although you don’t see it often anymore, I prefer a horse to begin his career with two sprints and then a route. He has run three times and won at three different tracks. The sire is Tapwrit, and I have a few concerns with distance, but overall, stamina influences are present in the first three generations with Tapit and Smart Strike.
Victory Formation will get the nine-furlong test in either the Risen Star or Rebel Stakes, and so far, he has been similar to Arabian Knight. He has won his races on raw speed, outbreaking the field and powering away to victory. Flavien Prat flew in to ride him for the Smarty Jones, and he has other contenders. A decision could be looming soon.
#2 Arabian Knight is the logical #1. He has run a 97 and 96 Beyers and most likely moves forward in his 3rd career start. Arabian Knight will likely run only once more before the derby, and the logical spot is the Arkansas Derby. He has gone “flag fall to that’s all” in both career races, and putting him #1 now does not add anything.
We wait until his final prep race and rank accordingly. He currently is the 6/1 Kentucky Derby favorite in Las Vegas. Churchill Downs has not listed him individually in any of the KDFW offerings due to the ban on Bob Baffert.
#3 Hejazi is a horse I will take a flyer on, an expensive auction purchase that took a few starts to figure out. His maiden win was a fast race, and the two-year-old form with three starts gives him an experience edge that some of the other horses don’t have.
He has an efficient stride and runs with his head down low, which is a good sign as the distances get longer. I like that he chased the more experienced Cave Rock in the American Pharoah. Cave Rock was better that day, and for a young horse, Hejazi was put on the defensive and had to chase a better horse at that time of his career. He still galloped home without being used down the stretch; that was a good workout. San Felipe or Rebel stakes could be next.
#4 Shopper’s Revenge is total speculation. The pedigree is grade-one, with the mare being a Grade One winner on the dirt. Steve Asmussen has had tremendous success getting horses in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, and the significant improvement in his second-lifetime start is often a strong signal of stakes quality horses. He continues to work out after the win, and he comes from off the pace, so he will need to find a race with 8 or 9 horses so he gets a chance to get some cover and make his run.
#5 First Defender was a fast winner of a six-furlong maiden race at the Fair Grounds on the Lecomte undercard. The pedigree is class; the speed figures have been above average for the class level in all three of his starts and form a solid developmental pattern. I expect First Defender to move forward from this effort. He took a lot of heat until the stretch and then pulled away late and galloped out with an efficient stride. Post-race First Devender bounced on the backstretch after the win and had a calm run back to the winner’s circle. He didn’t look tired after what came back a significant Beyer number. Most likely, First Defender will face softer fractions when going a longer distance making him more enticing with more racing experience. He has a lot of upsides. But he is fighting the “Curse of Apollo.” I would prefer to see him run in an allowance race next, but those don’t fill this time of the year.
#6 National Treasure was a non-threatening third in the Sham Stakes as the favorite, but he has shown positive traits, and I still think he is sitting on a significant effort. He faced a more experienced Cave Rock in his second-lifetime start, and the next start might be the Rebel.
In his 3rd lifetime race, National Treasure shipped to Keeneland and made an early move while running wide and into a fast pace on a day when closers overall did better than the front-runners. It was windy Breeder’s Cup Day, and horses who could get the pocket trip exceeded expectations. The Rebel or the San Felipe is likely next.
#7 If Rocket Can moves from off the pace, as he did in the Holy Bull, the son of Into Mischief makes a three-wide bid to take the lead. That’s back-to-back good races for the colt trained by Bill Mott. I am curious to know how much more he can improve and if he wants ten furlongs, but Bill Mott can get a horse to peak on Game Day as well as anyone.
#8 Tapit Trice made a three-wide move in an allowance race and powered through the lane to serve notice that the son of Tapit was ready for stakes competition. He has run fast twice and has three career starts, all three at one mile. Tapit Trice should be fit to move up in class. The Tampa Bay Derby or Fountain of Youth could be a couple of options for this colt trained by Todd Pletcher.
#9 Newgate is another horse who continues to improve, and coming from off the pace, he has been able to finish his races stronger than when he was on the front end. He may not be able to get a Grade One victory against the stronger competition, but the Sunland Derby would make an excellent spot to stamp his ticket to the Kentucky Derby.
#10 Disarm is another from the Steve Asmussen barn. His maiden win was at Saratoga, and visually, I like how he lowered his head down the stretch; he was efficient with a low-head carriage and covered a lot of ground. He had some issues out of that race and did not race again as a two-year-old. He needs to catch up on experience, but he at least got the training as a two-year-old. His workouts are starting to pick up. He has had four-morning moves since the layoff, and none of them are available for viewing. Steve works his horse’s back slowly.
This pedigree is all Winchell Thoroughbreds. Gun Runner is the sire out of a Tapit mare and a homebred. All systems go for the Risen Star on February 18.
*Forte has yet to run in 2023. Horses often do not move forward at three, and I will wait and see what he does in the Fountain of Youth.
*Cave Rock does not have public work in 2023, and he may race in March.
*Blazing Sevens has just a couple of works and may not run until the Fountain of Youth.
Holy Bull Recap
Cyclone Mischief, Rocket Can, and Lord Miles generated the most buzz during Holy Bull week. Lord Miles was adding blinkers for trainer Saffie Joseph. Cyclone Mischief had the fastest Beyer speed figure, and Bill Mott was trying to win the feature at Gulfstream Park for the second straight week.
Cyclone Mischief opened up on 7/5 on the tote board and went off on 6/5. Rocket Can is the second betting favorite at 5/2.
Cyclone Mischief broke well and established position in the second flight. Rocket Can – took advantage of the outside post and set up from off the pace on the outside.
At the half-mile pole, Rocket Can made a bold move for the lead and snatched it from Legacy Isle, who also came from just off the pace. Into the stretch, Rocket Can opened up on the field, and then his stable mate Shadow Dragon briefly made a bid at the leader, but Rocket Can, maintained the lead and secured the victory.
Rocket Can – under restraint early in his previous start, made the same bold move at the Confidence Game, but was repelled down the stretch on that day. The winning Beyer speed figure for Rocket Can was 82.
Cyclone Mischief ran evenly around the track, never seriously threatening. The Tampa Bay Derby, or The Blue Grass may be his final shot at getting into the starting gate.
Lord Miles could not stick with the field early and offered nothing down the stretch.
The Notebook
Geaux Rocket Ride emerged on the scene with a quick maiden win on January 29 at Santa Anita. Flavien Prat rode the fast son of Candy Ride out of an Uncle Mo mare.
Richard Mandella took his time with this Candy Ride colt, 13 workouts from two furlongs up to six furlongs made had him fit and ready to win at first asking. The Beyer speed figure returned a 92 when Havenameltdown earned a 94 in the San Vincente.
Opening up on the turn, he ran straight down the stretch moderate hand ride to victory with a moderate gallop-out. The distance was six furlongs, and the San Felipe was the only local option if they wanted to go into a Stakes race. If they can get an allowance race to fill at the sprint distance, that would give Geaux Rocket Ride a second sprint before a nine-furlong try in the Santa Anita Derby.
Kentucky Oaks
Coffee In Bed is another late-developing filly who aired in her debut at Santa Anita for Richard Mandella. By Curlin, she sported a long series of works going back to July at Del Mar before her debut race on January 6.
The odds were 20/1 in her debut, “The Judge,” Mandella had her ready to fire first-time out as she came from off the pace to score the measured win with Mike Smith coming from off the pace. The Beyer speed figure in the debut was a 77, which is slow for January for three-year-old fillies. The second-place horse, Sweet Trouble, came back to run 4th in the Las Virgenes Stakes with a 71 Beyer.
Mandella likes to take his time, and she is by Curlin, whose progeny develop at three. But the dream remains alive for a filly who debuted with a win.
Bandita debuted with a flashy win at Gulfstream Park, going seven furlongs. The filly by Gun Runner showed a series of workouts leading up to the unveiling, including two gate works, with all the training coming at Palm Beach Downs.
The Bettors made the Todd Pletcher trainee the even-money favorite. Bandita made that look by value when she broke fast and could slow down the pace at the half-mile pole. She officially led at the half-mile and stretch call before drawing off by over eight lengths under the wire.
The female family is strong, with the second mare being Simplify by Pulpit, and she earned over 260K on the track, including a minor stakes win at Saratoga.
Todd Pletcher has done his best work in recent years with fillies, including Nest and Malathaat. This year’s crop includes Julia Shining, Munny’s Gold, and Bandita may be close behind those two as the calendar turns to February.
Julia Shining has clicked off a steady work tab at Palm Beach Downs for Todd Pletcher. She was visually impressive in her juvenile wins, including the Demoiselle Stakes.
Coming from off the pace, she electrified the crowd in the Demoiselle, getting up at the wire after a long drive by Luis Saez.
The wins have earned style points, but the Brisnet speed figures have been more modest in both efforts; with six workouts, she is close to race-ready, and the Suncoast Stakes has been a traditional opening spot for trainer Todd Pletcher for his Sophomore fillies.
“People Have Opinions, horses have the facts”