Thoroughbred Prospectus
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Southwest Recap
Arabian Knight has been the Kentucky Derby Future Book Favorite in Las Vegas since his eye-opening win on the Breeder’s Cup undercard. A series of fast works had him ready to ship to Oaklawn Park on Saturday for the Southwest Stakes.
Heavy rain at Oaklawn Park continued throughout the day, making the track sloppy. Arabian Knight was 2/5 on the tote board. Corona Bolt and Jace’s Road also received support after stakes victories at the Fair Grounds. Bob Baffert was also in attendance at Oaklawn Park, making a rare appearance at Oaklawn Park, usually assistant Jimmy Barnes’s ships to Oaklawn.
Breaking Sharply, Arabian Knight set the pace and did not receive any pressure down the backstretch, allowing him to dictate a moderate pace. Frosted Departure made a move going into the turn and applied some pressure before Arabian Knight drew off for the lopsided win. Arabian Knight has a noticeable paddle, and trainer Bob Baffert mentioned the plan is to keep him lightly raced. Veteran Jockey John Velazquez pushed all the right buttons, breaking sharply, setting up his position, and monitoring the leading contenders. He continues to ride well on the big stage, and his ability out of the gate allows many lightly raced horses a fair shot down the backstretch.
I expected a better effort from Corona Bolt. He broke a step slowly and then was trapped inside for most of the backstretch; he received a passive ride from Flavien Prat and will most likely get another chance at a Kentucky Derby points race on a dry racing surface.
Jace’s Road put in a mid-race move, his two previous wins were on or near the pace, and he was no match early for Arabian Knight; he was finished after making the mid-race move and may have disliked the sloppy surface. Jace’s Road is likely a cut below the top horses, but he can make some money if spotted in suitable races and middle-distance routes.
Sun Thunder was trapped inside for the first half-mile, went outside for a brief bid, and flattened out. He was not pushed late and will probably regroup and go to the Rebel Stakes.
This race was over once Arabian Knight established the lead on the backstretch with no pressure. His sharp speed, breaking alertly and moderate fractions, allowed the race to develop, and no one from off the pace could make any real impact. Corona Bolt and Jace’s Road received not aggressive rides considering the competition and the sloppy surface, which resulted in a paceless race.
Red Route One picked up the pieces for second but was never a serious threat to win. Steve Asmussen has been quiet on the Derby trail, and Red Route One has been his in-the-money finisher until Disarm and others are ready.
Sloppy races are hard to handicap; with the continuous rain and overcast skies, several horses were out of their elements halfway through the race.
Arabian Knight benefits from the conditioning and showing that he can ship and confirms the significant speed figure he earned in his debut. The son of Uncle Mo has shown speed, the ability to handle an off-track, and sent from his home track for both his wins. These are positive traits.
Las Virgenes Recap
Faiza was the even-money favorite after back-to-back wins to start her career. Pride of the Nile figured to improve off her 2nd place finish in the Starlet Stakes.
Faiza was confidently ridden down the backstretch and took command approaching the turn. Pride of the Nile appeared to have an inside position and an opportunity to take the rail, but Jockey Juan Hernandez opted to wait for room and go outside horses down the stretch.
Unable to save ground, Pride of the Nile switched leads and was gaining ground late on Faiza, but it was too late for the daughter of Pioneerof the Nile.
The winner Faiza continues to impress, the speed figures are coming back solid, and she still seems to have room for improvement. She is by first-crop sire Girvin, so questions on first-crop sires are always present when they stretch out.
Faiza is very athletic and has push-button speed, and she seems tactical. The biggest question will be the nine-furlong distance and what type of competition she faced out west in the small fields and running against the same horses.
The top two are close in ability; if you reverse the trips, Pride of the Nile may have won Saturday, but Faiza is also less experienced. Pride of the Nile may have more distance potential, and Faiza is more likely to improve with only three career starts.
San Vincente
Bob Baffert had four of the five runners in this race, and Havenameltdown was the favorite based on his fast-speed figures. Impressive maiden winners Fort Warren and Faustin were making their second career starts and giving up experience and recency.
As they loaded into the gate, the tote board showed Havenameltdown and Faustin both at even money.
Havenameltodown broke well and took the early lead from the inside post position. Faustin was in third, and Fort Warren trailed the field.
Havenameltodwn was never challenged and drew off to his second straight stakes win. Faustin ran similarly to his debut maiden race. He was allowed to settle, took second into the stretch, and gained ground late at the wire. He galloped out on even turns as the winner Havenameltdown.
Havenameltodwn will stay in races at one mile or under, so the Pat Day Mile on Kentucky Derby Day is his ultimate goal.
Faustin does not have early speed but does rate, and with two sprints, he will now stretch out his next start, most likely in the San Felipe.
KDFW Pool 3 Notes:
Forte closed as the betting favorite in pool three of the KDFW. The champion colt trained by Todd Pletcher had his first work of the year on January 21, going three furlongs. The second work for Forte was a slow four furlongs on Saturday. They are taking their time with the Juvenile champion, and Forte will likely not be pushed hard for a few more weeks. The Fountain of Youth is the first scheduled start of 2023.
Loggins continues to take money in each of the KDFW pools; he has yet to record a timed morning exercise. Surprisingly, Loggins and Extra Anejo continue to attract betting support in the KDFW pools.
Instant Coffee turned his Lecomte Stakes win into 18/1 final odds. He needs to get faster to be a top 5 contender, and he seems underlaid at that price, but he most likely has enough points to enter the starting gate.
Giant Mischief closed at 27/1; the second-place finisher in the Springboard Mile is another Brad Cox trainee, and early indications that the Rebel Stakes will be his next start. His first work of the year was at the Fair Grounds 3F in:38 1/5; with three starts as a Juvenile, he should get fit quickly after the short layoff.
Corona Bolt and Jace’s Road disappointed on Saturday in the Southwest Stakes. Cyclone Mischief and Litigate most likely go next in the Holy Bull.
The Notebook:
Arctic Arrogance, who finished second in the Remsen and Jerome Stakes, is expected next in the Withers field next Sunday at Aqueduct. The recent maiden winner, Clubhouse for Todd Pletcher, may also be entered. Hit Show scratched from the Southwest Stakes and will ship to Aqueduct for the Withers Stakes.
Saratoga Special winner Damon’s Mound returned to the work tab with his first-morning drill since finishing out of the money in the Iroquois Stakes. He is by Girvin, so there may be some distance limitations. Damon’s Mound ran well fresh as a two-year-old, and his Iroquois was too bad, so I will toss that race out and give him a new look. He does have a robust two-year-old foundation, so he will probably get one shot at a big race.
Expect More, who was disqualified in a Gulfstream Park maiden race last time out, returns in a maiden race on Wednesday for trainer Todd Pletcher. Expect More broke slow in his debut against Arabian Knight A win on Wednesday would give him options for the Sam F Davis, Gotham, and Fountain of Youth. His speed figures to date have been on the slow side.
A notable highlight on the undercard of Lecomte Saturday at the Fair Grounds was the impressive debut of First Defender The Steve Asmussen trainee torched the Fairgrounds track to a five-length win.
First Defender, a son of Quality Road, ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, was pushed through an opening quarter of 21 2/5 and a demanding half-mile split First Defender was between horses and sandwiched between horses going into the stretch.
Coming out of the turn, he switched leads and was able to pull away, earning a Brisnet speed figure of 92 in a sprint race, with Determinedly earning a 93 in an allowance race and Instant Coffee a 96 in the Lecomte.
He will have to fight the “Curse of Apollo,” but all options are open as Steve Asmussen will use the Fair Grounds, Sunland, and Oaklawn Park on the Kentucky Derby Trail.
Shesterkin was a maiden winner on New Year’s Eve The dark bay worked back four furlongs and had recorded 11 workouts leading up to the debut score at Gulfstream Park.
Shesterkin should be fit off the string of notable works at Palm Beach Downs, which plays a little slower and gets horses conditioned. He closed at 104/1 in pool three of the KDFW.
Scoobie Quando is a horse to watch on the Turfway circuit. He debuted on January 7 at Turfway Park and will have to fight the “Curse of Apollo.” Scoobie was bet down to the favorite in the Turfway Prevue Stakes and dug down in deep stretch to earn the victory at the demanding 6.5 furlongs. By Uncle Mo, the pedigree mixes speed and distance potential and could come from the female side. The John Battaglia Memorial could be next.
Funtastic Again ran off the screen in the Leonatus Stakes at Turfway Park and is another who will be pointing to the John Battaglia Memorial. The Wesley Ward trainee has three-lifetime wins, including a victory at Saratoga and back-to-back scores on the synthetic in Florence, Kentucky.
Verifying emerged from his Oaklawn Park Allowance win and will return to stakes competition. The late foal (May 11) by Justify will likely target the Rebel with the Risen Star as a backup plan.
Verifying debuted with a gritty win at Saratoga, taking heat on the inside on the turn and entering the stretch before pulling away to the victory.
The gritty effort in his debut may have caused him to regress a little in the Champagne stakes, but that was also a sloppy surface. His two wins have been wire to wire, but he is out of Diva Delite, a hard-knocking mare who won 8 of 17 starts, and stakes win in the Gasparilla, Suncoast, and Florida Oaks. His Breeder’s Cup race may have dirtied up the form on his overall record, but returning in the allowance with a new career top is a positive sign of the layoff.
On the Clock:
The fastest winning Brisnet Speed Figures for non-stakes since January 1 for colts and geldings include:
Cyclone Mischief – 99
Slip Mahoney – 98
Hejazi – 98
Verifying – 95
Kingsbarns – 95
Kentucky Oaks
Munny’s Gold returned to the track a winner at Gulfstream Park on Wednesday, bet down to 1/9 odds and coming off a 6-month layoff for trainer Todd Pletcher She pays $2.20 for the winning ticket.
Munny’s Gold did not disappoint, winning by over six lengths at the distance of six furlongs. She had been impressive in the mornings, with many of her works available on XBTV. The pedigree and running style says this filly most likely remains in sprint races, and Todd Pletcher has more stamina-oriented fillies for the spring filly races.
Champion Juvenile Filly Wonder Wheel picked up her feet with a five-furlong work in :59 flat. The Suncoast at Tampa Bay on February 11 or the Davona Dale on February 4 is the most likely option for the Into Mischief Filly for trainer Mark Casse. She worked a solo three furlongs on her first trip to Florida. The Davona Dale is the early target for the filly who won the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies.
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