Thoroughbred Prospectus
↓ Hi, I’m Derbyologist. Welcome to a newsletter on horse racing. With a focus on handicapping, graded stakes racing, and becoming a winning horseplayer. Forward to a friend, we welcome all new subscribers. Pay it Forward – Pass along to a fellow Horseplayer! Did someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe Here
Road the Kentucky Derby Recap
Lecomte Recap
Instant Coffee was the morning line favorite for the Lecomte Stakes. Two key scratches reduced this to a six-horse field, with Itzos scratching to run in a stakes race at Turfway Park, and Tapit’s Conquest opted for an allowance race earlier on the card.
Echo Again was bet heavily in the final two minutes, dropping from 4/1 odds to late in the betting. Handicappers were leaning toward him, being the speed on the rail. Echo Again did take the lead and was able to set modest fractions, but going into the turn, he began to shorten his stride and lost momentum. Echo Again put in a disappointing third effort after the impressive debut win.
Echo Again ended up being eased down the stretch; early reports on Sunday indicated he was ok.
Bromley chased going into the turn, but he didn’t have the late kick; this was a good trip, but he didn’t have the talent level to track the speed in Echo Again, and with Two Phils and Instant Coffe, who had trailed early, picking up ground late and pulling away from the field.
Instant Coffee put in a nice run, with a small field and being at the rear. The official chart showed Instant Coffee last at the half-mile pole and was six lengths back at the half-mile call.
Jockey Luis Saez elected to go wide for the drive and was able to match strides when Two Phils went to the lead, and Instant Coffee was able to pass quickly and pull away late.
Instant Coffee has proven to have a versatile running style with four-lifetime races. He has back-to-back stakes wins and not can choose between the Risen Start or waiting for the Louisiana Derby. Bromley looks better suited for sprints, and Echo Again continues to disappoint after his brilliant debut race. Two Phils ran his race and were out-finished late by a classier horse down the lane, he can compete at this level, but there may be little scope for improvement.
Upgrades for this race are Instant Coffee; he has established his class level, can run from off the pace, and has shown the ability to accelerate and pass horses quickly when he makes his move. Classified as a closer, he is not a grinder and can run outside and inside of horses. He has shown some grit and battled adversity in the Breeder’s Futurity. From the first crop of Bolt d Oro, we still have to see him carry that speed a longer distance. Trainer Brad Cox indicated in the Fair Grounds press release that the Risen Start or Louisiana Derby is next for Instant Coffee.
Silverbulletday
Chop Chop was the morning line and officially the 4/5 betting favorite in the Silverbulletday. The track was wet with some water on the surface; overall, it was more of a damp surface than sloppy and played fair during the race.
Chop Chop broke well and elected to track the pacesetter in 3rd place. The Alys Look and Chop Chop went well down the backstretch, and the jockeys were biding their time before moving on to the uncontested leader Hayunevano. Chop Chop was wider the entire race than The Alys Look.
The Aly’s Look got the first jump, and Chop Chop joined soon after going into the turn. Those two locked in stride down the stretch and finished well clear of the third-place horse.
Chop Chop had an excellent bounce-back effort from the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies race, where she came up a little empty in a race that featured a fast pace and full gate of horses.
Chop Chop and The Alys Look benefitted from tracking the speed; they proved they were the class of the race. The top two separated from the third-place horse by 13 lengths, and they are the two to watch moving forward to the Rachel Alexandra and Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park.
Fair Grounds Allowance – Determinedly
On paper, this was a match race between Determinedly and Tapit’s Conquest. Determinedly was bet down to 8/5 after a third-place effort in the Gun Runner. In that race, he broke a step slow and conceded the lead.
Tapit’s Conquest was coming off a layoff following a maiden win last fall, and Tapit’s Conquest was the even-money favorite. Tapit’s Conquest trailed the small field early, saved ground, and ducked inside, going into the home turn. Running inside, he took the shortest distance; he changed leads midway down the stretch and moved well late, falling just short at the wire. Tapit’s Conquest was progressing well with a strong gallop-out after the race and seemed like the one to want out of this race.
This allowance race ended up a five-horse field with the late scratches and the slow pace. Determinedly had experience over the track and two-turn experience, and he worked hard down the lane to pick up the victory.
Banishing was a scratch on Saturday morning, and the Trainer reported that he had injured himself in his stall. Banishing will need to find a race soon, but this would have been the logical prep for the Risen Star. Banishing should be back at the track soon after hurting his foot.
It’s Getting Late – Early!
Horses who are not on the work tab as of January 22
Extra Anejo: Steve Asmussen, trained, son of Into Mischief, debuted as a fast winner at Keeneland. The win was by over nine lengths. With just one race, he will likely need seven works to consider entering a race. That would put his first race at the beginning of March at the earliest. The best-case scenario is going into Kentucky Derby off three career races. Two Preps seems like a tall task, and those taking 21 in the Future Wager this weekend may not have received the best bargain.
Loggins – Second to Forte in Keeneland Futurity. Brad Cox gave him time off after a demanding second-lifetime start -dueling the length of the stretch against Forte. The Breeder’s Futurity was off a 21-day turn-around after the quick maiden win. The Breeder’s Futurity was a grinder against Forte. I will want to see several works before an entry into a race. Lots of talent, but the days are getting longer this time of the year without a workout.
Cave Rock – Breeder’s Cup Juvenile 2nd place finisher. His juvenile campaign includes four demanding races and finishing with 3 grade one races after dominating a maiden race.
Capture the Flag won a debut race at Saratoga and has not raced since. He has a turf pedigree. No workouts through January 22; early March is the earliest he could be back in the entry box.
Gulfport made it back to the track this week for trainer Steve Asmussen. He has now recorded back-to-back workouts, and the Bashford Manor winner, who finished second in the Hopeful and Saratoga Special, will bring some sprint speed and graded stakes class to the entry box when he returns. Gulfport, who should benefit from the time off, could be one to watch for the Pat Day Mile, Woody Stephens, and Jerkens.
First Works of 2023
Forte – 2022 Juvenile Champion. The Fountain of Youth is the scheduled return engagement. With five races as a Juvenile, he has the conditioning and the class with three grade-one races. He has galloped for a few weeks, and the plan is still a two-race prep campaign. He returned to the work tab on Saturday with a slow three-furlong work at Pal Beach Downs with a clocking of 38 and 2/5. Palm Beach Downs plays on the slow slide, and this was an excellent first work back.
Blazing Sevens has been absent from the entry box since the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. With four starts as a Juvenile, he has experience and conditioning. His overall form was spotty, and his Champagne win was on a sloppy track. Chad Brown prefers two starts for his Derby starts, with the Blue Grass or Wood Memorial as the final prep. He was on the work tab Saturday at Payson Park Training Center, working three furlongs in 38 and 1/5.
Saratoga of the South
Shopper’s Revenge improved dramatically in his second career start. Improving his speed figure by over 15 points in his second lifetime start for trainer Steve Asmussen.
The pedigree is grade-one quality, leading sire Tapit contributes distance, and the mare is Stopchargingmaria, who retired with nine wins in 18 starts and won over 3 million dollars on the track. She won the grade one Alabama Stakes and G1 CCA Oaks at Saratoga and included victories in the Black-Eyed Susans, Demoiselle, and Tempted Stakes.
Shoppers Revenge led at the 1/2, 3/4, and stretch call on his way to a five-length win. A stakes engagement is likely next for this runner, who did get a race as a two-year-old to build conditioning.
Gun Pilot’s second-place finish to Verifying was a better-than-looked performance. Off the layoff, he set fractions slightly fast for the class level.
He finished well ahead of the third-place horse. He also came into the race with just one career start, with Verifying bringing in some classier form lines and running two turns in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.
Gun Pilot ran a strong race off the short layoff and should benefit from facing a proven class horse in his second-lifetime start. He has just two career starts, but he fits the profile of a horse who could improve quickly and may have the running style that benefits on the lead if able to set a slower pace.
Run Cory Run may have earned a start in the Sam F Davis with a maiden-breaking victory on Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs. He beat the highly regarded Summer Cause, who had finished second to Tapit Trice at Aqueduct in his most recent start. Summer Cause trailed early and was motoring late. Run Cory Run got the first jump and held off the 1/2 favorite. Trained by Saffie Joseph
The Great Race Place
Mr. Fisk emerged with the victory in a Maiden race at Santa Anita on January 2. This race was noteworthy in that he ran down the pacesetter and ran with a low-head carriage, which is efficient as the distances get longer.
He is by Arrogate, siring horses who are winning late and emerging as a sire of horses capable of winning two-turn races. The broodmare sire is a German Bred, and the second mare includes stamina influence Galileo. This horse is the late developing type for summer.
Jackstown was a debut winner for trainer Bob Baffert at Old Del Mar in July and went missing from the work tab. The son of Speighstown has a sprinting pedigree and has been working steadily for a return since mid-December.
Housebuster, Raise a Cup, and Speighstown all indicate speed in this pedigree. The San Vincente could be the return engagement. The quick break after the initial win suggests some issues, which is something to note.
Dubyuhnell had his second work back after the short vacation following his Remsen wins over Arctic Arrogance. The Brisnet speed figure came back a 100. He is targeting a sophomore return in the Sam F Davis.
Keep Your Eyes Peeled!
Signator returned to the work tab on January 18, and his previous work was on December 31. Things have to go smoothly to get into a stakes race in February.
Powerful has yet to be able to get a consistent mix of workouts. Steve Asmussen had him on the tab working four furlongs on December 12, taking a break until January 2, and then missing training on January 15. Minor issues could be causing this horse to get on a routine. The son of Nyquist won the Ed Brown Stakes at Churchill Downs Starts of Tomorrow II to close out his Juvenile campaign.
Kentucky Oaks
Tales of Home the third time was the charm for the homebred of Charles Fipke. Tale of Ekati is the sire out of Pleasant Home, a Phipps Stable G1 Breeder’s Cup Distaff winner in 2005 at Belmont Park.
Tales of Home improved her speed figure dramatically and was 2nd at the half-mile pole, engaging for the lead into the turn and then making a move to gain position into the stretch holding off the late charge of a 46/1 shot. Long-term, the Fantasy could be a race that fits with her progression.
Ziaerati turned in the second fastest Brisnet speed figure in New York by a Filly, Chocolate Gelato ran a 102 Brisnet speed figure last summer, and Ziaerati ran a 99 on a much slower Aqueduct surface. Still, she drew away to defeat New York breds with a big win in her debut race.
Trained by Robert Falcone, the sire is Into Mischief, and the broodmare sire is Munnings, so this pedigree leans speed on both sides. Ziaerati worked in June and July last summer before going on the shelf from August 6 to November 11. Since then, she has put in 8 workouts and will most likely stretch out in her next start.
“People Have Opinions, horses have the facts”